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Altcoins Pick Up Steam As Bitcoin Holds $7,000 | The Economy Is Broken

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

Well, it’s going out, everyone, my name is Nicholas Merton’s here a day to Dasch in today’s April 20th of 2020. Well, folks, I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are. And in today’s video, I not only want to spend some time to talk about the continued strength in crypto currency markets as Bitcoin has remained above 7000 and all coins have a fourth consecutive week of higher market dominance gains. But along with that, I want to spend some time to talk about a broader topic when it comes to traditional markets in the traditional economy. And that is the excessive financialization of most Western markets, such as the U.S., Europe, Canada and Australia. And I want to go ahead and just dive into this a little bit as we go through the video, make more sense as we talk about it right after our quick sponsor. Our sponsor for today’s episode is Bit Pande, a pro bid Pan Pro is the secure European exchange for crypto to fiat markets. But Penda has been offering secure, straightforward and easy access to the crypto currency market in Europe for over five years and wants to offer the same service to more experienced traders. Users using trading bots and other advanced clients like cryptocurrency businesses and institutional investors. With the steady addition of more and more crypto to fiat trading pairs, Fit Panda Pro has made itself a convenient, secure and trustworthy exchange to on-board or cash out easily. Check out the link down below in the description to learn more. All righty. So let’s go ahead and take a look through crypto currency markets from start here. You can see the vast majority of cryptocurrencies right now are starting to teeter barely into the red here. Down about 2 to 3 percent for most of the players here. Again, nothing too severe here. This is again coming after multiple days of gains. So we’re still sitting about the 200 billion dollar mark. Good milestone get back above here, really basically solidifying that we’ve basically made up for all of the gains. Excuse me, all the losses that we had back from the crazy sell off back in early March. So a month later, now we’re back to where we were before. Simply put. All right. Now, I want to go ahead here first to talk about the strength in all coins that will really diamond a bitcoin as we go through the video and what to watch for for here in the short term. But right now, the charts looking great, guys. Again, as we talked about, we take a look at the logarithmic chart here and we take a look at the line of resistance and support here that we’ve had drawn again back here for some time on the chart as we started to call a reversal on basically Bitcoin dominance there for meeting all the way down and it’s going up. Back here in September, we took this position of a trend reversal. And so far we’ve been on the winning side so far. Guys, I’ve increased a lot of my. If you just look at it very simply, I’ve increased my Bitcoin position in this case, or at least the the amount of Bitcoin I could buy with my capital and along with that as well. I’ve been in a lot of the players here that I actually just feel confident holding for some time as though they’re building real value or they actually have a project that does something and has some kind of utility tied to the token. And in this case, what we’ve been doing is not only holding on this line of support here, right as we started to set the significant high rate. We came in for a higher low here along this line of support. But also we set a significant low away from the line of support here. And the importance of this here, is it showcasing us that, again, the lows are starting to get further and further away from the lightest support, meaning the bulls are coming in at higher prices? And what I think is very rational to see here is I don’t think we’re going to just go through this week and next we can break through and kick off a massive often rally. I don’t think the momentum is there just yet. I think we need to wait for the having event. But what I do see happening. I’ll go and get the poly line tool here is basically where we could tailor up to this line here over the next few weeks, bounce across here, get above, make its support right. After that, we could start to really leap forward some time until late 2020 or into early 2021. Again, not here to get to a year in it. And again, you can see that October is a decent ways away here. Guys, I know it doesn’t sound very exciting, but at the end of day, I’m going to be waiting for this to really signal in this case that it’s going off right now. I’ve positioned myself. And the thing I emphasized in previous videos is, again, I don’t really see much downside at this point being positioned in the all compositions of men. They’ve not only been the market leaders here that are probably going to continue leading the way forward as they built momentum over the last coming months and usually tends to be the the best performing shorts still continue to be the best performing players as you go along. But along with that, again, there’s not much really downside risk here. Right. Possibly a few percentage points here down to the life support before you really take off. But again, my time frame isn’t what happens here. There. It’s what happens over here. Right. What’s happening and what would basically be the time period for the next cycle. So, again, really love, same as confidence, your higher highs, higher lows. We want to see that continue through here. And I think if we get to thirty seven point nine to 38 percent, I think that’s going to solidify here. Segment third, higher LOE here excuse me, third, higher high comp. This high in this high then that we’re going to probably be getting the next. We’ll hear in the next coming months now to talk about Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s price pushing a little more sideways here over the last few weeks or really to the vast month of April. Here, again, still generally up here for the month of April, a few hundred bucks. Now, the major thing that I want to talk about here as we are holding here at this price is what I’m looking for right now. Right now, you’re in a very interesting point here in the sense of price for those who want to learn how I would look at the market and more of a short term perspective. I know many of you know that I’m waiting for the having it, but I think we’re going to charge forward and that having event and that in many ways. Right. We can have a correction afterwords and long term, I’ve got a very long term big price target of hundred K late in late 2022. What I want to talk about in sense, if you want to analyze price in the short term, this is how you should generally look at it. OK, so you have to understand, the end of the day, markets are buyers and sellers. Right. And the major thing to take a look at here for price is significant lows and significant highs. Now, we can see here that these significant lows each and every time. Right. Every time we have a pullback, even though it might be a start pullback, we still had a higher load than the previous time rate. You could see that here. You could see for here, for example, we had a higher low compared to back here. And as we rallied up to this new level here, around sixty nine hundred, we came back down, set a higher low than previously. We rallied forward and then we set down a low end is higher than the previous low. So you can see here that we’re not only setting higher highs or setting higher lows. Now, one thing that when people point to is right now, the other day, at least according to the price actually for April 18th. Right. We have set in a lower high than where we were back the other day. Right. Peaked at around a little bit above seventy two hundred. And over here is more on seventy four hundred. Now, the question here is whether or not we’re going to see prices kick up here over the next 24, 48 hours or so and get above to new relative highs above this previous high or if it dips below the previous support level. Right now we’re in what I would say is a neutral trend right now. All right. We had a very nice short term kind of not so much correction, basically a short term rally here to make up for the losses back from March. And we haven’t fully made up all those losses just yet. We’ve made up the majority of them here. But all in. All right. The major thing here is to see whether or not we break those lows or we break the previous highs here. At least the relative highs. I know this is the all time highs for Bitcoin, but you hopefully get one I mean, there in that case. So that’s the major thing left for notice. Again, how it always struck. I always emphasize this, guys. They probably drive some of you guys nuts sometimes because he has probably have your indicators you like. There’s probably other ways that you look at charts as well. I don’t have to use any indicators. Right. I’m just looking at basically what price is telling me. And that’s the importance of naked trading, looking at supporting resistance. And luckily, get to do it, Clode. You don’t have to be naked. Some of you would prefer to do it naked in this case, but probably leave that if I did that on camera. Anyways, just wanted to go ahead and talk about that in the sense of the weekly performance, which is really what I care about. This to me looks like a downward channel that I think eventually here into the having event is going to likely get challenged to some degree or eventually to set ourselves up to get out of this channel. All right. Again, just important. Watch. We’re here, guys. I think, again, as we’ve emphasized the channel, these cycles are going to get longer and longer. Right. So we go and get the logarithmic charts. This doesn’t look crazy. There we go. The expanding cycles, again, we talked about this in the newsletter. I want to make sure this is general public knowledge to you guys. I want to share it with you. If you look at the last three previous cycles, we’ve added anywhere from 11 to 13 months, give or take, an average of 12 months a year. Each of these cycles. So it’s not a four year cycle. It’s expanding cycles. And this makes sense. I know I’ve had this debate in my mind for a very long period time because, you know, many people sometimes argue, you know, that all, you know, it cycles can get smaller. Right. And, you know, as as these having events, you know, have more and more of a dramatic effect. That’s where people make that argument. But really, it’s it’s the same effect time and time again. It’s it’s a having the reduction of Bitcoin supply. And the more important thing I think that it reason brings in the reason why these cycles are getting longer, even though they’re having events are fixed in four, four years is because you’re talking about markets of scale. It is much more difficult for an asset to go from, you know, 100 billion to a trillion dollars versus one billion to 10 billion. Right. Those are both ten axes, but you’re talking about much larger markets, a scale that require much larger amounts of Vaughan to get that price to where it needs to get its inflows that we need in order to valuations for valuations to get where they are. And Bitcoin is not going to get up there unless you have retail investors, institutions, hedge funds, family funds. All these different sects of the economy taking cash that they have and purchasing Bitcoin as a hedge or as an investment, a speculative element, whatever you want to define it as, we can sit here in bed all day about what we think Bitcoin is going to be, the market will define what bitcoin is, right? Bitcoin isn’t changing anytime soon. So again, we’ll we’ll see if the market does actually value it and push it up to these values in late 2022 up to 100k like we have predicted here. Right. Could not maybe work that way. Who knows? It’s no guarantee. Major thing I’m taking a look at here. The short term, no. Bitcoin is still way oversold sitting here at about fifteen points on the scalp x index. And again, neutral is 50 points. So just back here in February we were at sixty five points appear when prices were at ten thousand. So again, we’ve got a ways to go before I get really bearish on bitcoin in the short term. And also look at that as well. We talked about, you know, altcoins here, thearea holding on a very interesting line that has played as resistance and support in the past. Right. Very, very important price level here where we had a double bottom here. And it looks like we might have a chance to break up to new relative high so that we haven’t seen since back in June of twenty nineteen. Very interesting price actually compared to bitcoin. Definitely keep an eye on ethe as you’ve got a lot of updates coming this year. All right. Shortterm talking before we get to the big topic and we’re going to traditional markets. Most futures down about 1 percent here. Most markets are just generally trading right now and are down at the moment. But when we talk about U.S. markets right now, we have DSP 500, Dow Jones down about 2 percent. The Nasdaq is the oddball at negative 1 percent. And this is because a lot of the tech companies are becoming more relevant than ever. Amazon right now playing a huge role in what’s going on right now, getting even stronger in this environment. And along with that as well, a whole range of tech companies that, again, are providing us at a safe haven for investors during this time where people are basically isolated, quarantined at home, and especially not essentials. And a lot of businesses, again, are thriving and are probably going to continue to thrive even as people go back to work, because a lot of these people are probably going to work remotely from home in some capacity. So companies like Zoom, et cetera. This is why you’re going to see a pretty stark divergence between the Nasdaq and the Dow Jones, the S&P 500. Very important that you take in mind. All right, Koven, 19 year good news here. Again, not going to talk about this too much to talking about much broader topic here. Good news is global cases seem to be flattening some case, right? We haven’t seen a stark decline yet. All right. This is the good news here, though, is that this is during a period time we’re testing is more available now than ever. Right. It is ramping up like crazy. If you’re in the United States, for example. Right. If you want to get testing, you likely can get it. Look at the details here, guys. We’ve got the data. People are getting tests for showing severe symptoms. There are places where you can actually go get tested right now. OK, so we’re getting to that point here where testing en masse is getting out there into the open. You could see a lot of countries, the U.S. here, for example, if you wanted to see the total case numbers, again, setting up its third relative peak here, looking like we’re finally starting to flatten the curve with that as well. Spain, again, getting a few spikes here, same as in a few countries. But again, it’s going to often on here. And a lot of these days we have like no cases. So sometimes I think it’s batching these cases and it’s causing some discrepancies in the chart. Italy, very clean flattening of the curve here, starting decline, showcasing social distancing is working. France here again, even though these random spikes again, we’re still seeing a general curve here. Germany as well. Another clear example similar to Italy and the U.K. as well, starting to stagnate its growth here. Right. This is really good to see you guys. Really nice to see. And I think that, again, if we come back prepared some time here in the next few weeks when the economy reopens for most countries to some capacity with proper social distancing and day to day life as well. I would say the one thing I’d say again, I’m not the the leader of the world here, but I’d say if everyone made, for example, what I’d made and I showcased on Twitter a cotton mask, it’s where you take a gilding cotton shirt. Everyone’s got 100 percent guillain cotton sugar in their home as well as some scissors or some rubber bands. There’s two different ways you can make it. I made it a different way than what the CDC recommended because I made it before. But I’d recommend doing the CDC is way we can take a cotton shirt. You folded up a certain way, get two rubber bands and you can basically put it around your mouth if everyone did this. If you viewer at home, if you did this fan of the data, ask channel part of family if you did this. And everyone around you did this something that we can all do, it takes us less than a minute to five minutes. We could go about reopening the economy tomorrow because when I have a mask, even though it’s not an N-95 and when you have a mask, if I’m asymptomatic and I cough, this will suppress the vast majority of particles that might contain Koven 19 and a lot of that as well. Your mask, even though doesn’t prevent everything, will do a great job of print inventing that. And you combat you combine that with social distancing, you would instantly see a stagnation in growth. A vaccine wouldn’t be so urgent anymore a year until a vaccine wouldn’t be so deadly. Right. This is the major thing that I would emphasize. But just wanted to share with you guys. There’s some great tutorials online. If you look up the masks for all movement. It’ll talk to you about how to make the one I made, but I recommend making the CDC one because you don’t have to cut up your cotton t shirt. And along with that. It basically turns it into multiple layers of cotton. This is just basically a two layers of cotton. So I recommend you do that. All right. So who’s ready for a little bit of a rant and rave here? If if the mask thing didn’t seem like a little bit of a rant or opinion piece, again, I think this is something that is something very close to heart for me. And I try to emphasize over the last few years because I love finance. You know, it’s interesting to me. I love seeing financial markets. I love the human element of financial markets. But I’m really I’ve been stuck in a love hate relationship with finance over last years. It’s been complicated, guys, because quite frankly, I don’t like the excessive financialization of the U.S. economy, of European markets, of most Western economies. This has been a big problem. You know, one thing that I think summarizes this very well is right now, for the first time in history, China here in 2020 has outpaced the United States in research and development, and it is set to continue increasing that research development, even as the US has continued to expand research in development on a total dollar basis. It’s pretty expected not to mention I think you probably have to count for inflation here. All right. But major thing to keep in mind here is the pace and rate of innovation of the United States versus China. Right. So I’m not here to bash on China per say. And I actually would say hats off to them for doing the research that they’re doing. You know, at the other day, I can’t judge them because it’s exactly what I want to see for my country. Right. But the major thing I want to talk about here is where money is going. And why we are seeing a lack of real world economic activity when in reality we are awash with cash and we could be doing so many great things here at home in the United States like China is set out to do over the next coming few years in 2025. Right. So to summarize this, I want to bring up a point here from Mark Andreesen now, Andreessen Horowitz. You know, Andreessen Horowitz is one of the largest venture funds in Silicon Valley. And they invest in a lot of major tech companies and major companies that you probably know that are used in your day to day life. Well, Andriessen came out with a recent piece. He does these kind of blog posts for these kind of articles that he writes out-of-reach from fund from time to time. And he basically wrote this during this time of Koven, 19. And I think more than ever, we needed to hear this. And basically, again, he basically criticizes the current environment right now that we need to get out there and really builds. We really need to be at the forefront of technological advancements, not only in financial technology, not only in medical technology, as we’ve seen right now, that you can’t simply receive a payment or a loan when you need it. And along with that as well, people for a long time can get tests that they needed. We weren’t prepared at any capacity for Koven, 19. Right. And of course, things like this are always going to be a shock. But the sheer fact that we couldn’t react within a week, within a week and a half with the proper amount of tests. I mean, this is very, very painful. It has long term ramifications and it showcases, as you know, in the long term that we’ve lost our way when it comes to the world economy. What we opted in for the last few decades, really since in the 1980s, is the financialization of the United States and a variety of other economies where we opted in to build financial markets rather than real-world markets. We decided to outsource shipping in order to save corporate earnings for a select few companies. And this is the problem that we’ve had, the dichotomy that we’ve had, where we’ve basically offset a lot of that research and development, that real world economic activity. There’s good wages in this case that used to make us the backbone of the, you know, the world in this case that helped us thrive through a strong middle class and good wage production for everyday people. Now, what we did is we outsourced it. We excessively automated it and other ship jobs overseas in this case. That’s just basically what’s happened. It’s been a combination of those two. And now we’re at a point here where we don’t have those factories to be able to produce the things that we need. And ninety five masks to be able to bruise the test that we need. And also outside of that as well, again, as Andriessen talks about here. You know, Mark really brings up a good point here in the sense of that. You know, why aren’t we, for example, a country awash in cash? When are we building factories like Tesla’s built? Right. The Gigafactory. Right. Why don’t we build hundreds of those across the country and become the manufacturing hub of the world? Why don’t we build every incentive to bring those kind of jobs in that economic activity here and build the best quality products, build a new standard that the world hasn’t seen yet because China hasn’t done that right. China can produce a lot of stuff, doesn’t really produce quality products. Right. At least you don’t think of quality. Not to be judgmental in that case, but it’s about mass production at the cheapest cost. Why don’t we switch it to making it where we can automate when necessary to keep prices relatively low? But we build quality products and we provide sustainable jobs and real economic growth and invest in real research and development. I completely say hats off to Andriessen for talking about this because most vaccines don’t give a damn about this. Most institutional investors have every incentive not to talk about this real world investment because at the end of the day, most money has been artificially propped up in equity markets over the last few years. People only cared about taking companies to exit. They’ve only cared about propping up their stocks as that’s really all they have an inclination to do. If they can take corporate money like they’ve done since the 1980s and increasingly injected in the stock buybacks like they’ve done every single year. They’re going to do it well for the first time. A lot of companies have committed during this time period not to invest in stock buybacks. In fact, since back here in mid-May, mid-March, stock buybacks have remained at eighty one billion, whereas back here, for example, in twenty seventeen we were well above 100 billion over here for the last two years in excuse me, twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen. We were at over 200 million average year about that same rate. All right. We’re about half where we were for stock buybacks. Less than half. I would love to see this number remain flat and I would like to never see this number increase again because there’s no need for stock buybacks, stock buybacks are a false positive in order to push prices higher. They said artificial demand where companies are taking the cash that bear in mind at the end of the day. Yes. In this case, the shareholders can vote or the board of directors can vote in order to allocate this money. But at the end of the day, that is the cash that represents the company, that employs thousands of people, that builds the products and services that you see in the day to day basis. If they don’t use that cash in order to put it more into research and development, to pay wages for people, to hire people, and they put it in something like a stock buyback, the only thing that’s going to benefit are the shareholders of the company who are looking for an exit as the prices keep soaring to new highs. And at the end of the day, when we hit these times where companies then become dry on cash, that means excessive layoffs and means wage cuts. It means cuts to benefits and means cuts to research and development and means cuts to real world investments and economic activity. You can either put money into an artificial market. And say that the world’s doing great. Or you can put it into the room or the economy and actually see it for yourself, that real money into the real economy actually does real good rather than putting in some false artificial market that a select part of the population owns. And I say this as someone who is invested in stocks over the last decade. I know this all too well because I’ve seen the direct correlation of who’s buying. As corporations and how it’s injected in not only through stock buybacks and dividends, through drip programs. And at the end of the day, how that props up equity markets, it does little to support the underlying economy. So anyways, again, there’s a lot of arguments to be made, guys, but I’d like to hear it. You guys have to say I’ve rambled on enough for today. I hope you all enjoyed my rambling session if you liked it. Tropp alike always appreciate it. But again, I want to say, Mark, I think proper. Really good point. Here is something that I’ve wanted to talk about it. I’ve talked about it from time to time. But this is something that I really wanted to dive into for some time. And it’s it’s upsetting to see because, yes, there needs to be. I think right now, I don’t think we have a better model compared to stocks. And then go with that as well. For example, Bitcoin, a lot of other assets, they don’t yield or produce anything. Right. But the other day. Right. Even though there is room for those assets, I think companies first priority should be to build, to innovate and to provide great products and services for the future. Sadly, I don’t see the United States as well as a lot of other countries across the world doing that at the pace we used to. Not in an environment with the smallest number of small businesses being created. I think it is the last few decades or something we’ve been having a huge decline in small business and innovation in the United States and that used to be the backbone of this country. So anyways, you are doing well wherever you are, guys. That’s going to be it for the video today, if you like it. Like I mentioned, a like leave a comment down below to contribute your thoughts to the conversation here and the dated Ash family. And I’ll see you off in the next video. Stay tuned.

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