Hello Moon boys found your gap. My. Dad made my stance based on. My son. And. My son. Let me. Let me. Get me a monster. Storm. Good morning people of camera number two. Welcome back to Crown’s crypto cave and a lot to talk about today not just with some live trading on Google dribble. As I do want to follow up on my stream or from yesterday. There are some very interesting thing innocent things going on there but also want to follow up on price action as well as we did hit the top set up a range and created the bottom set of a range and now we get to play the very fun game of it that’s a higher low or R next to lower high which is the age old game the favorite game of hollers near far and wide anyways before we get to that I want to remind myself to talk about all the programs which are all on sale for 20 percent off at Crown trading dot net no code is needed or anything like that and we do have payment plans that go out to like 10 months as a do you want to allow I want to I want to kind of be looked at as like a college course or something where you can you know you can pay overtime it’s gonna take probably that amount of time to even complete these programs but of course before ever even considering none of these programs I always want to say this check out the free content on this youtube channel if that gets you where you want to be you have no need for these sorts of things if you are completely fine with where you are if you’re complete happy then that then disregard it’s all get but if you are that how a person is actually set in them definitely watch the videos to make sure that it’s playable to you and then also make sure to read the reviews to again make sure that it’s make sure that you understand why you’re getting into. I do want to say at the outset though it’s very important to me to make sure that it’s actually a good fit. And usually the biggest consideration comes down to timing of them because the the technical analysis program and the options program are both about 40 hours long and realistically you’re going to want to watch those multiple times as the years go go past two to get to the deeper understanding of those programs and then of course the newest program the neophytes program which I just uploaded the video on that yesterday to explaining it definitely check that one out as well but that’s only for complete beginners. If you’ve been on this channel for more than like a few months you probably know a good amount of that content already so it may not be it may not be valuable to you but again watch the video on it it’ll go to much more detail there. And with that said it’s time to get onto the Crown trading app which is showing the open interest that we’ve been looking for to kind of look for a local bottom on this move. We are finally getting to that 500 500 million area of Elsa’s laughing the background. Hey she can’t even laugh right now it hurts too much anyways. Anyways opening towards getting around to that 500 million half a billion marker what you’ve been looking for which I do think is going to denote a nice local bottom. The question is Is this a local bottom or a macro bottom before a macro reversal. Well reversal reversal feels like I said that went wrong. The funny thing with that is is that well after about a 50 percent jump I think it’s very difficult to have any air of bullishness. But I do want to talk about some short and medium term ideas here anyway. So with all of that said I want to I want to once again point out the difference between all these major exchanges here and there is months there’s been some phenomenal arbitrage opportunities between all the major exchanges from all the different time zones or all the different zones in general. In fact a lot of people in the program chat have been like posting about how they’ve been RB now on X Y the exchange and then usually Coinbase is trading at a massive premium and it’s viable and it can be done. And and this and this tool right here definitely helped a lot of that especially yesterday when there’s like a 500 dollar difference between a lot of the major exchanges you quickly see that you know for example if you’re using bit Max and then you see like Gee tax or sorry Coinbase ends and Bitstamp trading higher for example. Well those are those are part of the index so people are getting marked against that. So naturally probably. But you know you private play there and he was all that said let’s not get into the actual charts or do we want to go to the charts first. Now let’s get into drill first. Mike my position just expired here. There we go. And or assigned my options position just expired here. I do want an update on this account as you can see it is now it is now two spots seven Bitcoin I guess profit running piano. So I like that. Nice. Nicely done. But what I want to do now is I want to cover this pollution again because I do have I do have an open. Do you have an open long I’m exposed about five bitcoins along. So I do want to make sure that I cover this up before the day’s end. And going back into our timeframes right here remember that the the ranges that we spoke about from yesterday were essentially hit especially to the upside the downside. Now we are just starting to formulate but the upside we’re looking for moved about 50 900 now bit Mexico actually but Mexico did almost get their day they got 50 58 seventy three and a half. The other exchange is getting a little bit more deeper into that territory. GEEWAX And in Coinbase for example almost hitting the 6000 door market to the T so we can consider that area hit and now we do have a another high side of the range and you know what. While we’re here on on damp because this one does seem to actually operate really really well I will put the blue boxes of peace and prosperity onto this under this chart. Let me just make sure that you can see the the thing it’s on the left hand side you can’t. OK that’s good. By the way thank you for the constructive feedback on yesterday’s video for the. You know for the technical difficulties I do pause about that. Usually I check beforehand but yesterday I just want to get a video out. But looking at and looking at this right here you know still the tops of the range and and the proverbial are the proverbial know the most preliminary resistance coming in right around low 6000 essentially between 59 50 we’ll call it in 60 150 ish region is where we’re looking towards and as long as Bitcoin’s below there there’s no talk of any sort of a even like medium term reversal. We could talk about low timeframe stuff especially because the ranges are so big right here that’s it. You know there certainly are a lot of opportunities and oh wow we actually did hit the bottom side of our side we hit what would’ve been the bottom side of the range yesterday as well if I if I if I would have plotted this out on on Mexico here anyways this is what I’ve been looking at from a short term perspective as long as Bitcoin is below 60 100. Hard to be bullish on it for a medium term move back up to the mid to mid to high 6 thousands. I think 60 500 would be of note there and in sixty nine hundred as well. But we’ll we’ll get to that bridge when we cross it to the downside of course. Now with that Bitcoin did get that nice way down yesterday to retest the last the the last low on a closure basis right around 48 50 we’ll call it and this is consistent with most exchanges of course bit next is an outlier here so I would default to the average which is going to be again stamp GEEWAX And and well basically those two guys I see seem to be the most dependable right now. They did. Has this area. So that actually does give us another you know a low to be operating off of the question is Is this a high or low in place. If it’s a higher low than we’d expect it to be defended essentially by the blue laws here even though the bull has they got fucking boo kicked so hard for the last few days. I’m not sure that there is any left but. But for now it is holding although as you can see on the lower term time frames it looks very very weak it does look like it’s kind of rolling over. We still have lower highs even you know even on like an hourly or perhaps even like a two hours well yes. Yes indeed we do. So it’s it’s it’s not looking like the picture of health and fitness. I do think that it’s going to short term going to come back down and test around this low at 50 to 100. Again this is on stamp and in Geet acts it does look like Mexico is trading about 50 bucks a lower below parity right now. But I you know I would be looking for a test here I think that it’s going to initially have a bounce. But if you do you start to see two outflows closing below let’s call it 50 200. I will look for extension all the way down here. I want to flip this box up create the liquid zone between 48 50 and 40 and in about forty nine fifty so. So a hundred dollar rate range down here. This one is incredibly important to hold. If this one does not hold if this one doesn’t hold well. But the market’s going to be on hold for another who knows a long time. But I would be looking for a quick retest of the low for thousands 41 fit for 40. What does it say right here. We need to like really go down to the lower timeframes to even get something that’s actionable. Not all that helpful around 40 100 is the only is the only thing that I’m getting from this and also 44 50 right here if you go down to like a 30 minute but this is this is like this is not not what you want to be seen hopeful what what bulls are going to be looking at here though is they’re gonna be looking at this as like potentially a pennant forming. You know all you know all of the balance and to be fair the bounce has been pretty damn good. I mean two thousand bucks up from the low from top to bottom on yesterday’s rally I think is about two and a half two and half thousand is pretty damn good and probably does align with his creating a local low here. But longer term there are some very major considerations which I am quite skeptical about anyway. But for right now you know Doug you know does look to me like it’s going to it’s going to inevitably test this region right here about 52 ended. I would expect a bounce on the first pass and and and probably resolution coming in either later today or tomorrow looking at this as a pennant. It would imply a resolution actually actually actually later today. So we won’t have to wait all that long to figure this one out. But if we do essentially get any sort of a breakage above or any sort of even I mean what time for Oh my God we can’t do this on a 30 minute we need to go to it at the very least an hour early before I lose my fucking mind. You know we can see the tops of the range here pretty damn well coming in right around what is it about fifty eight hundred so why if we were to get this you know technically speaking if we were to get this breakout it would obviously break us above that next mate. How would you say major resistance. I’d say preliminary resistance on a low top me this is a fucking hourly right now and we would be looking for another move backup to test actually around the tops out of this blue box right here which I’m on to move up just a smidgen too. I’m actually gonna move it up quite do I want to do that. Yeah. Do you want to do that. You know we’re going to tighten up a little bit more some like this. And it’s gonna be between about six six six thousand sixty one fifty ish region. So we would likely test tops out of this region which is kind of around our last big break down point from 12th of March and I would be looking for resistance right there by the same token if we break to the downside. I wouldn’t be looking for a retest back down to 44 50 and I do like how this lines up with the 30 minute charts. Oh great. But but overall it is a weekend so I am really not looking for I would not be looking for a reversal here. I would say the biggest case for bitcoins. But you know Bitcoin putting in a low is basically because it is basically based off the traditional marks which had a phenomenal close yesterday. And we do see them pretty much trade together. And this was very interesting to watch I actually stayed up for the whole address by Trump to the U.S. talking about the corona virus and how we’re going to do a state of emergency and it was pretty fucking funny. And also I mean pretty fuckin funny for the wrong reasons. But you got to be able to laugh in these situations it’s so he he’s talking about we’re going to top up the oil so top we’re going to begin to fill it up to the top the tippy top what what do you say Chief is like the funniest fucking words man does put this image in your mind that can’t you you can’t help but not laugh cause he’s talking about like how like how great we’re doing and how this is gonna pass like really really soon he’s like Oh it may not. Or it could get worse might get worse might get a lot worse. It’s like Hey man hey hey don’t say it like that fuckin scaring me man but it’s premature. So. Fair enough. Anyways more importantly on spy running over here we have a volume climax. This is this. This is significant outlier. It really stands out on the board. Really the only kind of comparable points that we’ve seen up to this amount of bone being thrown down were back in 2008 2009. Now to be fair in 2008 2009 we were doing a massive massively more massively massively more so for right now. I do think that at the very least we have a nice local low. We probably will rally up for the next you know. You know the next like a week or so but after that you know is the damage done to the downside. I’m not so sure I can make a case for the low we do have a pretty hot historical Bob volatility percentile on the weekly reading which is typically when we do put in major pivots on the market. But as you can see it can stay red for some time and usually when it’s starting to turn red we’re getting closer and closer to that low. But just because it’s red does not mean that we immediately have a low but high volume plus high volatility. Plus usually like your RSI getting down to this region and hopefully creating some divergence that’s gonna be good enough for an actual workable low going forwards here so you know I do think that is relatively close. I think that if if tradition marks do come down a little bit lower they prolly come down and base around the 2018 low right here at around 235 region on on spike. And at that point it should be putting in some governance you can see on the weekly. They’re still actually no divergence to be had right now. It will be forming if we were to make a slightly lower low but that also does mean mean you know that that Sorry that doesn’t play that we are gonna make slight you know you know a lower low. I do think that is worth pointing out that weekly stocks are coming down pretty damn harshly here. I would be looking for them to at the very least balance in this region. Again it’s not it’s not about being bullish or bearish just usually they’re going to bounce in this region doesn’t necessarily mean that we’re out of the woods just yet. In fact I’d say that that probably one of the worst indicators to be using for that right now. But for judging a bounce I do think so. And of course it’s closing on a long legged dodgy data like this it does imply indecision and usually after playing some pretty massive moves. The downside it’s pricing is up for a nice little bouncy bounce so let’s go into the daily. So this one closes Well I do like this at least. Again short term and I do think that probably you know next week it’s going to trade back up into the two 80s maybe even to 90 ish region. The problem is is that the longer that it stays below 300 the more and more this looks very nasty from a long term perspective. And with this with with you know likely having a rally in this next week or two you know it’s it’s great but it’s also concerning because we are going to be looking at a death cross especially on the daily which does hold significant amounts of weight especially and you know if you’re getting it in your major bourse here that being SPI so rallying up into this is not actually good. I mean it’s it’s not that it’s not good of course rallying is better than falling more by rallying it up into it while they’re kind of you know in the process of crossing is going to maybe set us up for like a perfect death cross on the daily which would not be good. But we do our bullish evidence present and confirmed now at least two drives on the daily here so I do like that historical volatilities until it is quite mature here as well so I do think that you know this is gonna get some more fall through to the upside probably somewhere around the mid to 80s maybe even to 90. But if you do see rejection right around 2 9 yes region that’s where whereas a twenty one actually now Fuck me it is around 290. God damn it it’s a little bit higher than that but I will work my way down that’s going to tell us that we’re probably a couple we’re very likely going to gonna retest the lows and maybe even close maybe even had all the way down to that 235 ish region but again I’ll just be going level by level here. I do think that we’re closer than not close and in closing the weekly strong above above the 2 and it’s simple intuitive experiment which is you know is good for now is or at least good enough for now. I should also point out that weekly or so not weekly but monthly has still been writing the 55 expansion average so thus far it’s you know it’s it’s OK it’s it’s it’s it’s within the realm of reason but realistically there is a major consideration here which I am I I I hesitate to show this because I don’t want to induce panic and I’m also and also I don’t have any history for this on this on this on this asset but we do have a very very very very very good monthly sell signal on the jewel forced by there’s not really any any good examples in the past maybe this one over here. Oh my God. And when was this. This was of course the 2000 fucking dot com bubble crash. So this one was a 50 percent down 50 percent down move over the course of Jesus about three years. Not good. So not the best. And then we also have a decent signal right around here. This was of course 0 8 and 0 9. Hand we have another 57 percent move down here. Again I I I’m I’m concerned about this because we see the jewel coming from the same region. This is actually a better sell that than what we got right here or right here. And what’s even more concerning about that is monthly RSI. While it is kind of following this trend line to be fair and it probably does have an initial bounce off the retest of the bearish controls on the month our side size nowhere. We’re nowhere near where it was when these two when these two bodies were put in. So longer term do I think that the bottom is is you know is in for tradition Marcus. I think that that would be very very naive for me to say right now. It’s it’s much too early to tell. And realistically the only way that I’ve let that I’d really change my mind on traditional markets like you would like obviously be bullish again is if we could close a weekly dildo back above about 300 dollars or more like 3 0 3 0 3 0 5. Some like that would look good. Of course levels you know levels relevant to the downside of the macro are going to be the last major low right around 235. Then if that area does get lost then I suppose the next major area be looking for is is this last big breakout right around to 20th region. And well you really don’t want that one to fail anyways anyways. So fair enough you know as it is right now the 76 has has has valiantly held us up or really really edit sex for the week low and we’re kind of hanging around the 6 1 8 right now from if you’ve been on your perspective. So you know it’s it you know it is set up for a bounce. We’ll have we’ll have to see how this bounce ends this next week. But going up you know putting back the spotlight on bitcoin let’s talk about the higher timeframes here for a second let’s start off with the weekly so Bitcoin weekly is hovering right around the 20 simple and short and expensive and average very similar to what we saw in traditional markets so I would say that you know if I had to put my money on it right now I do think that Bitcoin’s going to close by these tomorrow but that is my opinion my opinion is irrelevant if Bitcoin does close below these tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. Eastern time I will be looking for some more downside sooner rather than later. I will look for a retest of that 40 400 number and likely that retest is going to fail. You know you know if it does even bounce it there by the same token if we do end above the to an example or especially they wanted expansion we know much which I think is quite likely at least for the tune it’s simple it’s just a few. It’s just like a hundred bucks higher than where we are right now. So it’s really not asking for all that much. Then I do think that they was going to at the very least play out a little bit of a bounce to the low 6 thousands before deciding the next move and then that bounce is going to be very insightful to where we end up overall. Anyways that completely reminds me that I forget to put on I need to put on another cover for that five for that five long but Bitcoin position that I do have. Let’s see where where’s my deep in the money is we have the 5000 strike right here that’s not necessarily deep enough we need to certify this thing and fucking move. Well let’s see. And I want to I would like to cover up the top of the range. Let’s go back down over here because we actually do need to go back down to a lower turn conference but we can’t use bit next for right now is that the chart is just not as clean as the other ones. So we’ll go back to chew to stamp here. So if I could get the tops of the range I’ll be right around. Let’s call it fifty nine hundred six thousand ish region. So what would that be maybe like two ish. Yeah I could certainly sell for them out so let’s pretend they’re actually but I do need to cover my position so. So I am happy to put on I am I am happy to put on a little bit there. And again that it’s a cover against my long position so I just want to make sure that I wanna make sure that I play the Rangers here. I don’t think that we’re gonna be back breaking out of this guy in the next day and these are daily options by the way these daily expiration options are amazing. They’re fucking amazing. Holy shit there it’s so much better to be taking profit with options than than than just straight up spot is just so so much better. But anyways just a little bit of insight. Anyways I don’t thing that we’re gonna be taking out this area over the weekend pre we might test it and in fact if we do break above especially this last little local high 56 50 ish region I do think that we will test it. We will have a nice when we will have the 20 I for an average starting to nicely align with this region as well but I’m curious what the momentum sort of saying right now. Do we even have any bullish evidence present on for our RSI. Holy shit. No we actually do not. I’m curious what the highest timeframe is that we have bullish evidence present on and the to our No. Oh my God no. OK. Let’s go to the early. We got Bush diverted from the oh it’s great. I think it’s already probably played out though or in fact actually to be quite serious for a second. No technically we do not have Bush evidence here. We did make a lower low on RSI although bounce did come up to the 21. This was a pretty nice bounce but Jesus fucking Christ man. So. So fair enough anyways to the downside of the range like I said I do think that bitcoin price does pop back down around fifty one fifty to fifty two under this region and I would be looking for a short term bounce there. The question is do we close an hourly dollar it’s freezing fucking at least right now this is just ridiculous. Do we kill it. Do we close an narrowly below 51 50. If that does happen I would look for a quick retest of 48 50 right here but ultimately measure move would be pointless all the way down to 44 50 ish region which is 30 minutes apart so we’re really like cutting it down to the lower term time frames right now. I don’t feel all that confident when getting that low. And so I’m I’m really not gonna be trading all that much on this week and I’ll just be managing my open positions with options and that’s that’s really all that I care to do right now. Other than that what else you want to talk about. OK so let’s actually go back to the daily here. I am curious to see how our historical volatility percentile reads are looking like on a daily. And yes it is getting pretty mature here. It is getting relatively relatively similar cheat a lot. You know major pivot points on the market that we’ve seen before. Bow to the high both of the upside and the downside of course. This guy right here being being a critical one on this hype this one right here being on the high. This one right here being on the low. These are all precipitating you know pretty nice pretty you know pretty nice moves this one over here of course this one over here of course. This went on the last major low. So what I’m really looking for now to define a low in bitcoin land is I want to see historical alternatives until I get this right. So we got we got Tick number one. Then I want to see stock start to turn up. That’s gonna be Tick number two. Preferably there’s also going to be bullish evidence accompanying that stock turn up do we have that present right now. We actually do then three and perhaps and perhaps most important is is is is is RSI bullish evidence at no less than a daily and we actually don’t even have that in right now in order to get bullish evidence of course we will have to either retest the lows or or close on lower lows. So I I think it would be naive to say that the damage is done just yet. I do think that we probably will at the very least test 48 50 overall. The question is does that hold or not. If it does not hold. Well. I do think that we’ll be coming back down to the low for thousands probably forty two hundred once again and try and you know and try to put in a low there. But overall it is quite concerning still that’s daily Jewel daily Jewel is starting to flatten out a little bit. It’s lost losses slope just a little bit. I’m really trying to reach deep into the fucking what if draw for the bitcoin bulls here. Hey at the end this thing’s fucking fucked. If you want my true opinion. I do think that it goes a lower overall but for now you know to play on the bounce daily Joel still but still showing pressure down but it’s so aggressive I do think that is gonna be it’s gonna be a bouncy bounce territory relatively soon. Also keep in mind from the daily jewel if you do have access to the jewel it is a weird thing. But generally we do find bottoms in the critical zone here below the 20 marker all Bitcoin major long term bottoms have been put in with the jewel signal below that region anyways. You know to kind of highlight it out right here we have this low right here. We have this one right here. We have this one right here. We have this one right here 6000 low again right here. Again right here and again right here so even in counter trend markets you know that does get those major massive bounces pretty damn well but that would suggest that we have a little bit lower to go as well like this jewel this jewel cell signal or basically holler your short signal you know might bring us all the way back down here. So that would likely put Bitcoin in the low 4000 upper 3000. Once again I didn’t even fall up on the fucking intro to this video. Hey gap boys get ready for this. Yeah. Fuckin moons. Anyways. Here’s their gap. You want your gaps. I got your gaps baby. Let’s go back on over here. Oh man. Turn your eyes away. Moon boys. This one’s not going to be good. It’s not going to be good. Don’t look don’t look away look away look away. 0. 0. Oh. Yes. Yes that’s exactly right. Jesus fucking Christ man. This isn’t this is not actually a gap down here but it is funny to hear that people want to always talk about the gap at like fucking eleven thousand five hundred or the gap at eighty five hundred things whereas is where the last last major one is by knowing what’s fucking look at the actual you know no one wants to look like the bearish ones of course. So we do have one present down around here around the prior low at about thirty five hundred ish region you know is it a gap or not. I would say looking at the daily right here I wouldn’t really consider the gap to be quite honest with you but. But I it’s just it’s just funny that people don’t want to talk about that one or it you know maybe people do want to talk about them one but I don’t I don’t I don’t hear too often anyways. Oh transcript okay. Can you hear dumb shit like that. Jesus Christ. So fair enough. You know as it stands right now I’m not you know I’m not necessarily convinced that this is going to be the ultimate low. I do think it’s gonna have a chance and I would certainly change round my macro opinion if Bitcoin can start to get back above some critical levels. You know from a long term historical standpoint perspective which would be no less than like the low 7 thousands on a weekly closing basis for Bitcoin can do that then maybe the hope gem of this being one massive symmetrical triangle you know could play out. And what I’m talking about is this right here. You know it is technically President we do have good symmetry on this. But medical triangles have equal opportunity to break to the upside as the downside. So if we break to the upside well where you know where B we’d be looking at we probably will be looking at a break well relatively soon. I mean somewhere around here only a couple of months away in July or sorry we’re march so March April May June July. So for you know four months or so in the next quarter we probably do get this break. You break to the upside while a retest of 20000 is probably likely. But for back to the downside. Oh my chart doesn’t go that low. Okay. So we’re just gonna pretend that that didn’t happen and cancel that running over there. Crown is always right and bitcoin is going to the moon no matter what. Oh man. Whoa. Hey. Jesus Christ that came out of nowhere clear searches for you right now looking at the monthly. Very very problematic here as well. Why do you think that this is good enough for a bounce and perhaps this is actually better to be seen on the B Lux index. Yeah there we go. You do see that we have a clear a clear test of the 89 expansion we have a right here which essentially is a retail sales the prior low. So as long as that does hold you know you can sell it you can sell make an argument for it. I you know I do think the problem is is that momentum also is here. Ah ah ah absolutely forked monthly stock straight to the fucking floor opening down after rejecting the bullish controls and I really don’t like that one but what’s but what’s most damning to me is the monthly RSI. We’ve had several not several tests but we’ve had enough tests of the bearish controls on that. I do believe that the next time that we kind of test back in there there might be an initial pullback but usually around your third or fourth time that’s when it becomes a legitimate possibility a probable probability that actually will break and we’ll get we’ll get comfortable in the bearish controls on here so it can’t take its time you know it’s not there just yet but if we do make a lower low especially below this one right here it’s not going to be interpreted very well by the market and seen as we are well below the essential honest I’m just not a fan of it. What’s even more important or site I shouldn’t say more important just as important is the weekly and I think this one actually gets a little bit better just because a 3 7 7 has had more time to populate itself than the monthly moving averages just by the nature of you know it’s well it’s period programming we do see that we have you know officially tests of that to the downside and thus far the reaction has been pretty damn good and to be fair this is a really good reaction and we are about 50 percent off the lows which that is that would be what you look for in a capitulation event like a very very very very very nice bounce. The thing here is though is that if this is going to be capitulation it would be incredibly incredibly unlikely that we come back down and even graze like the low 4000. I think that they’ll be very unlikely. And of course closing below the for thousands would just make it just not that it’s not likely just this is not this. This is not what capitulation is. You don’t get to times to buy the situation bottom you know or you know or within you know with within realm within within reason of that area. So look at this right here this is this. This also is a little bit more damning as well. Looking at the you know looking at the higher timeframes mostly because this is. OK well I guess we have to do some Felix index but I don’t want to do that. I don’t want to do it on this chart as it’s already like filled up with my matrix shit. But basically you know if you can put in that same sort of symmetrical triangle that we’re looking at earlier some like this you know again the biggest hope home of all time. But I will leave it in for now. We actually do have the right volume senator for this being as much Triangle as well. Again it does not imply a it does not imply a bias for the breakout. I mean typically the breakout will come in the same direction of the trend. But for the people who are asking about the Matrix chart I should probably cover it now. We broke even the most the most lenient major support trend line coming in from our lows in August 2015 and our and our lows in December 2018 right here. So that is now going to become a major governing factor going going forwards. So I would be looking for this kind of operate in the same way that we’ve seen in the past. So I’ll go through the explanation of this one really really quickly realize that I’m already 30 minutes into this video but you know I’m having fun with this right now. So I don’t wanna stop but so. But looking at this you know I’ll explain it all these auto trend lines represent these port trend lines of major parabolic market cycles each and every one of bitcoin since we start off with this guy here in twenty ten of September and anchored right there. And also in November 2011 on this major low right here Bitcoin breaks it. The next likely the next year in February right here and that becomes Are our governing factor our parabolic highs essentially for the next couple of you know for the next Mark cycle right here in 2013 gets rejected and then again in 2014 right here then bitcoin comes back down where does that based upon it based upon that next trend line which creates a which creates another support trend line anchored in both what is this area 2011 right here and then our lows in 2015 that trend line that trend line gets retested actually really really soon right after that in March just a couple months later and does get projects right there. And then again on the high of the next parabolic Mark cycle right over here in 2017 2018 at twenty thousand dollars and what you know bitcoin comes back down and then creates another support trend line for this next parabolic Mark parabolic Mach cycle anchored in 2015 of August and and then also more recently again in December 2018 right here. This one has now been broken once again and I would be saying that you know going onwards and forwards here this probably does become our governing factor for the next parabolic market cycle. Now this is again very very very very very very very experimental and I wouldn’t be basing any real decisions off this trading wise but I do think that it offers up a very interesting way to be looking at this from a long term perspective as what the price ceiling target is for the next parabolic cycle. So for the people talking about like 30000 like I’m not taking profit on bitcoin before thirty thousand dollars well perhaps some of that new life. So let’s see what it’s thirty thousand dollars. You know even possible. Hey stop it. It’s getting ridiculous right now. But actually not that far away. November 20 20 21 we actually do have we actually see this trend line start to get around that region once again but that would be like a maximum area. And usually it doesn’t test that. That ultimate high. Like anytime soon. And we can extend that going forward. So let’s just look at what you know what what would be the high of this in say beginning of 2021. So going you know going to the end of the year this year it would say that we very unlikely do not even pass 15000 by the end of this year which I would say pretty. I would say probably agree with that at the end of 2021 getting to to 2022 right here. It would be as much as about 30000 bucks. And if we would extend that to another year into 2023 there would be about 60000 bucks and does rise quite rapidly. I mean this is you know this is a pretty damn aggressive trend line. And then another year after that about a hundred fifty thousand. Remember you know Mark cycles happen and well you know I this one this one’s been evolve as time goes on. My own thoughts and opinions on this have actually changed quite a bit since I started showing this about a year ago. You know as more information comes available. But I do feel quite confident in this right now. And you know do you really like how this lines up from a Fibonacci perspective as well. I mean check this out. Bitcoin did hit directly down to the 3 7 center control damage right here which is also 76 Fibonacci tradesmen on a Fibonacci retracement taken from the ultimate hi to our side from the ultimate low the prior market cycle running over here to the ultimate high of our of our past motorcycle riding over here and we did bottom out of about the 786 for now where do we bottom out in the past 1. Actually right around 76 we did get what’s lower. We actually got slowed to the 886 which here would be low 2000. Don’t say that I actually do think that when you go to 2000 now. But. But on a weekly closing basis we did not really violate the 76 or you know we know with with within reasonableness of it then if we go to a one a one prior to that we do see that the 86 hold it up back on over here as well so I would be looking at that you know. You know with wit with skeptical eyes but interesting nonetheless and it kind of does a light. Well let me get rid of this trendline right here and let me get of this. This is just. That’s just too much that’s just too much man it’s just too much. Maybe some a little bit more like this and we actually do end up in the area but I’ll have to look at that one a little bit more with in my own lab for right now though it does seem to me that from a fib and on your perspective we are respecting these very very well so it is it does seem to be a good edge to be going off of. And what do you know the 620 is coming in right around low 7000 so I would go as far saying Let me make sure that recording. Okay. I’m recording and the microphone is working that’s great. I would go as far saying that. As long as we are below 7000. I am not looking at this. I would not I would not say it is confirmed like Major Mark macro low. And even that would be aggressive. I mean technically we we’d want to see back above 10000 bucks on a weekly closing basis which we’re pretty much around the not point five. Would do it as well. But for right now it’s what what’s really going on here is what we’re seeing the charts morph into something completely new and we most likely just need to wait for. We just need to wait. We just need to wait until something obvious starts to populate itself. For right now the pressure is down. You know overall macro pressure is down. Short term probably does bounce up bounce you know bounce targets. I think I think getting back in the low 6000 region would not be asking for too much and with and certainly within the realm of possibility but maintaining you know higher timeframe closed than there that’s where I get a little bit skeptical and looking at Bitcoin kind of curl back down around to give you late buyers another chance to buy the low seems a little bit suspect to me. I think that this is not this is not good. Down here. In fact we probably did have some hidden bearish divergence even present between oh my god the price I got so beat up that we have hit bearish divergence between about sixty one hundred right here and this local high right here. So yeah we probably got to come back down at the very least to fifty one fifty fifty two hundred is region which is which isn’t that much right now but when I started this videos we were trading around fifty five hundred right so so now it’s you know it’s been a little more actionable and we’ll much more so it’s turning looking like they want to turn down as well you see the for ourselves getting stonewalled here on the march on so much love and before that last drive down from about sixty two hundred of well really like thirty five hundred I guess and is really struggling to get out of the bearish controls and especially on a weekend I wouldn’t expect I wouldn’t expect a reversal here and so I you know I don’t think that Bitcoins can be going back above 60 you know 60 100 we’ll call it a test it but I’d be looking for cells in that region I’d see saw me kind of plot my options trades there anyways what what about the lower timeframes three hours a little bit under pressure still we’re still kind of following this trend line No we could be no we are testing this trend line right now. No not even any bullish evidence I mean this is a system that’s just fucking wrecked to our looks and very nasty as well to our stocks having a fresh cross down. Same with Audi as well so these guys are all going to pull through on the three hour and the four hour right as these guys test at the edge of the bash control zone you know I do think they were going to test the downside the range the question is how far down but do we go. I think at the very least 50 150 probably test 48 50 though probably test 40 or 50 and I be looking for a four at the very least a short term bounce there. However I’d be very skeptical I’d be very skeptical right now. Anyway some one else who want to do. Okay. Do I want to talk about this right now. No let’s talk about expected moves tribe by the way. I don’t have an A. I’m going to have a massive announcement with the expected moves start relatively soon anyways. Okay. So let’s keep in mind all of the critical areas and putting on the blue box territories. Let’s go right here. I want to go to my Bitstamp chart. The critical ones for like the medium timeframes is going to be six we’ll call six thousand kids easy to say and then 48 50 down here. So let’s go to a twelve hour first let’s see what the probabilities kind of align with 0 and what do you know they fuckin perfectly outline everything that’s relevant here. And what do you know the 12 hour historical volatility set outside the twelve hour expected moves with regards to stock of all trips until our signing to squeeze down once again not fucking good. First any aviation bottom side is coming in right around that 48 50 ish Target down around here so it would suggest that we have a less than 60 percent chance to close below there today I do think that bitcoin would probably bounce from that region. I don’t think that we’re gonna get continuation of the downside today. I don’t think that we’re gonna see a reversal of the upside today which would be hard above above about 60 100. You’d see that the the one and a half in second generation are accurately getting this blue box right here so that would give us about a less than two and a half to 10 percent chance to really close in in or above this blue box territory in the next 12 hours with the price action. So again to me that you know would likely be a sell in that region. Looking at the daily looking at the daily you know same sort of thing going on right here the one and a half standard deviation is coming in right around the top side as well as Eve as oh my god it’s actually it’s actually less probability. Sorry no no it it’ll be more probability on the you know on the daily. What the fuck my mother had a massive brain fart right there but less less less than a 60 percent chance to close about the top 1 and complete the medium term reversal and and probably initiate a move back up to like you know maybe even maybe even as high as like 69 or 7000 so I’d be very very treatable and perhaps even does happen this coming week but so remember that does really change round anything from the macro view as long as below 7000 it is not good by the same token to the downside would you see the first aviation accurately getting the bottom side of the blue box saying that we have a less than 60 percent chance to see continuation below that level in the next days with price section again that level being about 48 50 ish region. So you know overall that just makes me makes me think we’re gonna see a day of raging here. I do think that tomorrow Bitcoin probably does close above the tune it’s simple maybe even the Twitter next Benjamin and if that does happen I would look for this next week of price action to be a bouncy bounce week and Bitcoin can attest to at the very least the low 6 thousands if it can clear above our blue box at 60 what I’m gonna make sure that I get right at about 60 150 I will look for extension to the next relevant region which is you know short short term it’d be like sixty five hundred ish region probably yeah I’d say about 66 66 right here let me just put it in that we go. I like that I like dat I like that and then and then and then above there I’d be cognizant of the basic like 7000 dollar region nice nice so what’s called psychological number but for right now you know we’re pretty much in the baby in like the MFC of this dumpy dump so things will change around quite rapidly and it’s gonna be very important for me to update these update my thoughts daily because things are likely to change but for right now you know I do you know I do think that bitcoin is essentially just gonna be playing at play you know playing a game of Rangers this weekend between about you know as much as like fifty nine hundred to six thousand region and as low as like well hopefully no lower than 48 50 but if we do break below especially this blue box territory right here or even this last prior local low that that target will get extended after a small bounce in the 40 or 50 ish region all the way down to about 44 50 ish region right here and I’ll be looking for another bounce there at the very least on the lower term time frames. Joe I want to get in to explaining this I mean I don’t explain this one fully because tomorrow I’ll go into much more detail with it but for right now we can zoom in on this baby and we can see very easily that we have that same signature that has precipitated all 50 to 70 percent retracement in Bitcoin’s past. So talking about long term bottoming areas you know or do haven want to do that right now. Talking talking about long term but not talking about long term buyout. You know you don’t do it for a second I suppose we can kind of get a gauge of what to expect from this signature here where we get the where we get the purple in the pink with the so the purple and the pink the more reactive versus the less are reactive both below the regression line that has always resulted in at the very least a 50 percent retracement. We had this sort of explain it very briefly here. Yesterday’s video goes into much more detail and then explain it tomorrow and in much more detail. But when you get some like this we’ll get some like more recently like we didn’t really get it over them like this right here as well. And in the past in 2014 right here and again in the beginning of 2014 right here we always have had pretty nasty pullbacks or crashes if you want to call it that. So I’ll start off with this one right over here. You remember this one it was a nice 50 percent down from top to bottom from signal given to next major low. We got this guy right here another 70 percent down from top to bottom. And in our line these ones up tomorrow. But for right now I don’t wanna go through the whole rigmarole this video is already quite long. This one over here we had another signal there is still 5 percent and I’ve done this so many fucking times now that I can actually I don’t even need the chart to tell me where it is. This one over here another sunny of sun down and then there’s another signal given right here but the same signature for 76 percent down anyways you know let’s just see how that kind of line up with our current price action from last high to next major low we have already traded down about 62 or sorry 63 percent which is which is in line. It you know it is in line with it but because we are playing a game percentages here and we are playing with big numbers that the difference between 63 percent down and 75 percent down you know on the more aggressive end is quite significant 75 percent down would put us into the into the mid to low 2000s which is personally where I think Bitcoin probably does find its low. If this is not going to be it if if this low really does get violated and would be very problematic is if we get like a weekly closed below the two it simple tomorrow then I do think that ultimately we will head down to the mid to low 2000s region. It’ll take its time. Most likely although you you seem to be drastically terrible with doing time sort of analysis I don’t think that it can really be done. The closest thing I can get to that is is historical volatility percentile but that’s that that’s only given you likelihoods it’s not giving you dates. So. So you know with that said I do think that it’s possible that we’ve seen the low. I would say the probabilities are not on it though unfortunately probability charts and not can really give us a good read on that because we really it’s not optimized for like a weekly or monthly which is the time frame that we’d have to really look at it on. But but but getting it but getting like consent if we got two consecutive closes below the and it’s simple on on a weekly I’d feel very confident with bitcoin going not just down to the last prior low at thirty five hundred ish region but but another thousand to fifteen hundred bucks lower at two two two to two and a half thousand bucks somewhere in there is what I’d be looking for a major low until that happens until that happens we’re stuck on the lower timeframes with all this bullshit anyways so let’s go check out Mr. beta all and this is like one let’s check out some of the market leaders see how they’re holding up right now and you can see that they pretty much look like the same fucking chart now don’t they. In fact Mr. beta all making a lower low than what we printed earlier this year in December 2019 sorry not earlier this year but but late last year and basically retested the prior low. You know what would have been like thirty one hundred on bitcoin in December 2018 for Mr. beta all right around here as well. The problem is is that this is now creating one massive it looks to me like it’s creating one massive descending triangle on the macro. This has severely severely hampered the case for a long term bullish case on on on Mr. beta all. And I’d imagine on most all coins now the bullish case would be this mean I’m going if I want to first at the outset say this is fucking hoping right here. I don’t believe this. I think that this one price goes lower but as long as it does follow this trend line right here you can make the argument that maybe it morphs itself into some sort of an ascending triangle on the lows that would mean that I don’t want to see a goddamn weekly closed below 130. Over a week close of course. The problem is now though is that what we’re really seeing here is something more like this. We have we have macro lower highs and now we’ve just tested the prior low. And what does that sound like. Well that’s the ingredients for creating or if we go weak if we go with two to work here. That’s the ingredient for creating a long term descending triangle. So perhaps we play in this region for a long time. If you see this trend line to the upside get respected long to long term then that’s probably what we’re doing. And this trend line can be extended pretty much all the way over here to be firm. And that would imply I don’t want to do a measured move on this one because I’ll it’s going to be what are we like around zero. But but here’s the thing you know the monthly is officially in a downtrend right. We took out last month’s low we put we confirmed a lower high and took out last month’s low on the same fucking red dildo. I mean this is this you know this that this is not yet in any way by any stretch of the imagination so I would be more or less bearish on this one. And we do see monthly stocks look a fresh cross to the downside and what the RSI is essentially doing what I think Bitcoin RSI is likely to do as well. This is like going over here. Same sort of thing. You know actually do do do we make new lows. No we do not. We came we came with within about two and half bucks of making new lows. But more importantly on the monthly we have confirmed a monthly downtrend the year your high. There’s your last low there. There’s an next lower high. That was your low. Now of course we are trading below that low as it is right now. Of course you know maybe it does get savaged by the other month but it looks to me like we are turning to the downside on a fucking monthly by the way on a fucking monthly momentum cities are are all but fucked here to him monthly stock straight down if you just I mean this whenever we got to the bearish controls on to be fair about the RSI again one two and now three tests into this region I am not a fan of that either I might have an initial bounce I mean we’re kind of we are seeing initial bounce this one’s literally up you know 40 50 percent. Same thing as bitcoin but long term I mean what you know when we’re looking at a monthly and we’re seeing these signals kind of come to fruition these are well these are gonna be playing out over the next few months not necessarily today. So on top of that we do see the red 10 simple looking across the downside of the yellow 21 literally as a as you know as a test each other. That is the most perfect cross I’ve seen in a long time. Also not good. What about ripples nipples. The rebel army is going to say me on this one aren’t they. We’ll skip that one. Neo in a in a full on monthly meltdown as well. I mean there there’s no real price targets for these guys. These are monthly downturns is this. Yes. These are just shitty charts is that these are terrible shitty charts trawls back below 1 cent I edit this chart. It’s a dead heartbeat is what it is. B cash is this do you people even follow this one anymore. I don’t know what about BMV. He would wouldn’t do this to me. Come on C.C. show me that stimulus package. Actually one of the actually one of the better one of the better acting wants to be fair. I shouldn’t I shouldn’t make fun of it. It is one of the better charts it we do see. Do you have to be Jewish to be non partial. Let’s go check out chain link. Oh my God. How do you think that chain link probably does bounce a little bit up here. I do want a full. I think this is just such a good example of of you know the other day around the sick the 5th and 6th of March when we are getting a perfect cell signal on the you know on the daily Jewel link. I was saying this looks foolish to me but the jewel does sell does say sell and I’ve always been wrong when I disagree with the jewel. Once again I am wrong. The trend continues and the trend is your friend until the end of a trend and I don’t see that one ending anytime soon. I do think that it bounced up a little bit more here though this one this one can bounce quite a bit up to maybe been up all the way to 3 bucks but I would be looking for resistance right around 3 dollars and I would not be bullish from a macro standpoint as long as it’s below about 3 bucks. So what else you want to look at. Gold. Gold. My rocks my gold rocks. That fucking rotavirus hates gold rocks. You know what. Oh shit. Fuck. Uh. Peter shift’s not going to like this one. It probably does bounce coming into next week but I’d be looking for that bounce to be sold in two. It can pop all the way back up to like fifteen eighty five region. It’s not wouldn’t be a big issue. Massive bearish engulfing to end the week all momentum all sort of down major bearish evidence presented itself. Even the monthly monthly says that we come back down to like 14 30 14 50 before this is all said and done in. What else do we want to look at. Think about it Brian. It’s already been an hour long. Holy shit holy shit. Let’s see. Let’s see. I feel like I’m missing something now. What could I be missing right now. And we’ll go we’ll go back to bitcoin and and for and for now I actually don’t think that looking at bit Mexico is very helpful. It’s chart is just that it’s not consistent with the majority of charts right now. Let’s see if there’s any jewel bias in those kind of formulae themselves. We did get a bison on the low or around the low where we did this one come in. Yeah came in on this. On this what down here to about 48 hundred. So I do think that that one’s mostly played out. I would not get too aggressive with these signals right now. Yes this was a pretty damn good signal right here. But you know it’s all right. It’s already played out more than a thousand bucks. The upside from a four hour signal I’d be looking for to come back down again and then set up another perfect signal and that’s probably going to be a much more reasonable low. Let’s also see what are the twelve hour stocks you and other up. Okay. Ambush huh. You can spend 50 hours going through my programs and spending a shit ton of money. Or you can trade the twelve hour Stokes and the twelve hours supply can be just as good if not better. I mean it’s that fucking simple right now. Twelve hour RSI. Nowhere near me. Well it is gonna make debt burdens on the nest on the next drive down but that does imply that we will close on a lower low than 48 50 so perhaps bitcoin does come all the way down to like 40 20 and we do put in another low there and then we actually start to put in some divergence some divergence plays on the on the twelve hour daily and maybe even weekly actually print out the weekly because we always know nowhere near. But the twelve hour on daily R and IMO much more so does for these ones are pretty damn beat up. So I do think that that’s possible you know. You know possible for the next couple weeks but for right now let’s wrap this bitch up once again put back on our on all of our drawn tools. I think I’ll do this one on Bitstamp does. It does look like on the very low time friends Bitcoin is trying to put itself into some sort of some sort of this magical triangle here. No bias on which way that we break out although it does look to me like at the very least we will be testing the downside of it at 51 51 50 ish region. If that does break I would really want to see it on something higher than an hourly though. Then I will look for it. I will. I will look for that move get extended all the way down to 48 50. I would look for a small bounce there but even just violating this last prior low at 5000. Even on an hourly closing basis anywhere below there. You know I look for a small bounce here but I do think that ultimately we will meet we will meet the measured move all the way down to about 44 50 down down around here and then try to put in some divers and some like the 12 are some like that by the same token to the upside a little bit more forgiving I suppose if we could if we could get an hourly dollar closing above fifty seven hundred. I would look for this to test you know. Sorry to test our blue box at the very least at sixty one hundred. Technically the measured move is actually a little bit higher all the way up sixty four hundred so it does make me think that we that’s probably not gonna get hit because remember looking at the expected moves chart alongside the fact that it is a weekly RSI. It is a weekend and and an actual reversal on the weekend is very unlikely to get any fall if you in fact ever since semi’s have debuted reversals that happen on a weekly reversals. Not continuation but reversals. Be very clear because sometimes people mishear me on this one and can create a lot of confusion and a lot of very bad people. But some buts but reversals on the weekend since the Emmys have come out have never had any follow through. From what I can recall which I believe is which ability is correct the other 5 percent have have have played through or you know gotten confirmation on a weekly reversal during the week or none at all. And I think that that 5 percent was like I was basically making you know making a major excuse for price actions like even in the worst case just very unlikely. So I do think I do not think it would be very like that we had up here. If Bitcoin does test around sixty six thousand sixty one hundred I think that it will be a likely sell for myself forces an orphanage by some of venture visor but I would be taking you know I am Anderson positions there for at the very least covering my spot longs and and I’ll be looking for Beck wanted to just essentially play between these regions until the weekends and and with with specific attention to tomorrow’s weekly close if the weekly closed above the tune and simple. I do think that bitcoin will at the very least rally backup to test around low six thousand it Bitcoin closes the weekly above the two it expendable damage at fifty nine hundred though. I do think that bitcoin will rally up quite a bit more towards around the 60 hundred region. Well we’ll get our next test and that’s where we can talk about maybe some long term positions once again although we won’t talk about which side just yet. Anyway that to go for right now. I want to wish you well once again it has been an absolute pleasure to be with you this lovely morning. And it’s actually kind of nice and sunny right now too so. So with that said Take care. And. And until next time.