Bitcoin BIG WAVE Incoming! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis


TONY EASTLEY Are we about to witness a massive shift in changing tides in Bitcoin land, or is this the last chance for love me into my salvation, my soul and my soul? Let me let me say let me go to my. Welcome back to crowds could dock people off camera number two. Once again, we are here to discuss some very important price action. However, before you to that. I do need to make a massive announcement because there’s been a lot of confusion surrounding this, but it’s understandable. And of course, it’s has to do with the Dischord community. So if you are part of the general community in the inner discord, the link, of course, in the script, him down below, you’ll notice that probably all of your acts has been taken away from all of the channels that you could once see. We actually initiated a whole new verification process, kind of get rid of all of the there’s a whole bunch of fuckin fuckery going around, which isn’t really like the short answer to it. And we just kind of want to clean out and do a little bit of a little bit of spring cleaning. If you want to call it that spring in Finland, actually postpone for a little bit of time because it is actually little is known here, right here right now anyways. More on topic. God dammit, crown focus. But the thing is, is that if you have not already verified yourself, the only way to verify yourself, listen very, very carefully, because this is really important. If you do want to get back into this core channel as you’ll have to leave the channel. You have to. Sorry, leap not not leave the channel, but leave the server completely the server and then re join the server and you can find a link in the description below. You can also find it on our website. Crown trading dot net. And it’s you know, it’s just right there for you anyways. More importantly, once you rejoin once you’ve actually rejoined the server after leaving it, you’ll be prompted with a private message, direct message where the fuck you want to call it that will show up in the top left hand side of your of your discord, pop up whatever it is, and it will be from ah, lovely welcome Sentinel Baute titled or his name I believe his alter identifier hlt dtn t.i fbi. Ah, if I spell proper I don’t know. So gonna problem name in the home on that crown. You don’t not spell well actually. Well good. I know I a. And importantly spelling doesn’t matter. But the important point is is that that bot will damu some instructions on how to verify yourself. It’s a very, very simple process. I know it’s annoying, but it is necessary to make the whole community better. In general, we’re trying to really up the quality of what’s going on. I think that discussions have kind of been devolving maybe sometimes. So we decided to put it in for that veto for those reasons. Then, of course, to get rid of all the spam bots and everything as well, it’s that’s really, really fucking annoying and in some ways even harmful anyways. So with regards to that, you’ll be positive you’ll be prompted with that private message. So that means that if you aren’t accepting private messages or or direct messages from from server members, then you’ll need to enable that. I believe it’s under your privacy settings for discord. And then the bot will be able to send you a private message. It will set you up with a link on how to verify yourself. It will try to do some sort of capture. Or maybe it will. Or maybe it’ll allow you to verify yourself through like Twitter or Reddit or YouTube, some social media venue. That’s pretty much applicable to everyone. And then again, for that, you know, for 4, people don’t have anything like that. The capture option is there as well. And once you’ve done that, it’ll give you a specific role and then you will be had in. Then you’ll be granted all your access as you had before. And so the community obviously going to be a lot more smaller now, but more intimate. And to be a to be honest with you. I really, really, really, really, really like that scene more than like the fucking massive crowd, which can get a little bit overwhelming at times. And you know what? You know, when crowds get bigger and everything, it’s like I feel like people value each other less because it’s like, oh, well, there’s another person about it over here. Well, now that it’s more intimate, once again, I have a feeling that it’s gonna bring back that the community feel anyways. Okay. Jesus Christ man, there’s a bunch of boring shit that you’re prolly not even interested in anyways. Put for the people who I want to make sure that you have that information right there. Again, if you are if you were already a part of the discourse community, what you will need to do now is you need to leave and then rejoin if you don’t already have yourself verified. And then and then all good anyways. OK. Getting on over here in Truthy crunching allocation, which I have a very devastating announcement to make actually in a little bit more of a somber tone. I do want to look into the camera because this is a little bit serious. Our developer is our developers wife who who’s working on this. And she was going to have the open interest chart ready hopefully by yesterday on foot. And that’s not gonna be happening because his wife is showing symptoms of the Corona virus. And by extension, you know, them living together. He’s probably, you know, if she has it, he prolly has it as well. So right now he’s gonna he’s gonna go get checked out and hopefully, you know, we’re gonna we’re going to keep our fingers crossed and everything’s fine. But at the end of the day, you know, priorities call right now. And so he’ll have to take care of that. You know, we wish him well and everything. And and I’m sure that and I’m sure that most people here even know him in the community. But for right now, all updates gonna have to be postponed for a little bit of time for obvious reasons. So, again, looking back into right now, I kind of switch up gears once again, but. The open interest, we do see open interest coming down about 20 to 30 million from yesterday to today, which shows us that we have still yet to see the big bad break that we’re looking for. Whether it even comes the upset or the downside, referencing the beginning of this video. Are we seeing that? Are we seeing a changing of tides or are we seeing the last chance for love? Well, I can present the case for both. But there are some damned. But anytime you have that sort of an edge, it offers up a really, really, really, really, really nice trading while trading plan, I suppose, anyways. With that said, it’s still in the. It’s still within the context of the open interest here that we are consulting before this next change behavior, so to speak, on the lower and medium timeframes. Now, can that extrapolate to the upper heart-to-heart to the higher and the macro timeframes? Yes, absolutely. But those levels are still very much the same as we’ve been discussing for like the last month or so now. And and you can go and you can reference the long term analysis video that I uploaded on Sunday and the long term analysis playlists, which which will go into much more detail on that anyways. On top of that, all other all other metrics for the underlying market dynamics are more or less the same. Crypto Fear and Greed Index popped up a few points here from a from an 11 read to a 15. Again, if there’s anything that does make me lean a little bit more towards OK, this could be a fake out or we actually do have a nice move to the upside. It would be that you wouldn’t expect the market to be so fearful when well, when quite little, the price session has doubled off the lows. That is a pretty damn good hallmark actually of a change of type. Anyways, what’s more important is actual was is actual price action because we’re just looking at a derivative right now. And so it’s going to price action charts right here. And what do you see? Bitcoin hovering right around the daily twenty minutes, Benjamin average. And there’s a lot to say about this right here. So with yesterday’s big wake up, you know, testing all the way down to six, five is reaching a closing right around. What kind of closing price will you get? About 68, 68, 50, it looks like amongst mode, most major changes. It still offers up the potential for a nice hunt to the upside and maybe even a shift in market direction to the upside. But at the levels to delineate the shifts, in my opinion, are more or less the same as what we saw yesterday. So going into our lower term time frames, what I really want to focus on here is the four hour, actually. This is one of the few times well, not one of the few times, but but this this I think I think things are just most clear from the 4:00 hour right here when usually, you know, it’s a higher term time frames than the other guy. But but looking at the four hour right here, of course, we did get a fake out Golden Cross back in the Death Cross. And now as long as we are below, especially the Green 55 expedition, we average. And and by extension that you wanted X Benjamin average. There is pressure down. Of course. But could the tides of bitcoin change for the short and medium time frames here, backup to the upside? Yes, absolutely. What would be needed from each kind of jump back on that train? And I mean, quite literally, a four hour delay closure of the 200X Benjamen average at 60 950 ish region to again look at your exchange is going to be different amongst, you know, amongst many of them. Interesting. Opening closures above that region. Yes. Likely does align itself with, at the very least, another attempt backup towards this local high, about sunny 158 region for the short term and for the medium term backup likely to this Bluebox territory right around here. So I do need to put in a few more because I am looking at the lower term time frames right here. And what I’m talking about is this guy right here. There is. This is only relevant to the low term time frames. I mean, to be very careful with the way that I express myself here, because this is where I think it’s easiest for me to not not not say things in the way that I should be saying them. But what I’m trying to get on our side. What I’m trying to explain here is that the short term time frames still a game between essentially, let’s call it 60, 750, if you want to be a let’s call it six, seven hundred on a more conservative note into the upside about say sixty nine 50ish region and you can make a nice liquids home right here even as well if you’re if you’re like looking at the very low time frames and I can put a another another Bluebox right here. So again, as long as bitcoin is below this. Bluebox it’s still pressure down. My my overall bias is still certainly to the downside as long as below there. If Bitcoin gets above there on a short term time frame out at the very least, look for another retest of this local high, about Sony 150. And realistically speaking, I do think that, you know, personally, I think Bitcoin would gun for the next medium term timeframe range back up to about 70 373 50ish reaching give or take about 50 bucks. Now, above there, things can change for them for the hired macro term time frames. If we close, say, like a 12 hour total, especially above seventy three fifty or seventy four hundred is region, I would target another move and then another extension. Kind of what we’re looking at last week during this redistribution of fave phase right here all the way up to about seventy eight hundred seventy nine hundred is region in this Bluebox territory correlated with our prior historical Autoblog, not just coming in from March of this year, but actually all the way in in this sort of breakout territory that we saw in late twenty nineteen before this four thousand dollar move up from sixty five to ten five. So a you know a very massive area from historical from historical standpoint. But at the end of the day the the these sort of triggering effects for that are more or less the same for myself. And now which is kind of I’m just kind of churn out the lower term time frames because while real estate very little is change other than that and we need more things talked about because what the fuck of, you know, what the fuck what else are you gonna do on a Tuesday? I’m. Not going to do too much. Oh, I forgot about I forgot to talk about Twitch, I probably I probably won’t be doing Twitch Day. I need to go to the doctor again later and probably not going to be good news. So I will be on very, very, very, very, very likely. So. Fair enough. Anyways, for the downside. For the downside, actually. You still into the downside here, especially as long as we’re below sixty nine 50ish region and I will hold short as long as were below that region as well, especially on an open and closed basis for a $4 timeframe. But the downside is a little more diabolical because we do have this trendline that’s been coming in all the way from Saarland. Put these back on all the way back in from our March 13 lows right here in the last few local lows, 1 2. You could even count this as 3, you know, depending upon how you kind of aggressively put this over here. But say, you know, it’s it’s it’s it’s more or less getting the same area. And what’s more important to me is the correlation with the horizontal right here, which I do believe is getting it properly. So what does that mean? That means that if we actually do break sixty seven hundred, especially on a four hour total closure, and realistically, because this area is so big and it’s not just a low term timeframe area, it’s a medium time frame area as well. And you could even by extension make that a higher term time for. We are looking at the culmination of the last month to a month and a half a price action right here in this kind of rising Channel ish formation, which is further verified by the volume signature for the verified by the open interest signature, you know, kind of coming. Sorry. Awesome. Between the 550 million and 700 million dollar mark. And now and also and also by lesser extension. Well, actually, more extension as as as I think that this gets a little bit better for our historical multi-tier percentile, actually, maybe you could even use it daily at this point to yacht’s contracting still quite a bit. But overall, that area is holding a lot of weight myself. So I wouldn’t look for the next big bad breakdown in bitcoin price action until we realistically break this this Bluebox right here. I want to see like a full on clean enclosure below sixty seven hundred on an open, inclosed basis. I’d be beautiful for the more aggressive traders they might be looking at about sixty seven fifty right here. I think that that’s also relevant, but I don’t see the need to be aggressive in this region as this would initiate a measure moved from this rising channel, or if you want to call it a rising wedge. What are the fuck you want to call it? The implication is the same. Redistribution is the name of the game here. As far as I’m concerned, as long as you believe in as long as we’re living below, you know, I mean shit 7d twenty three to thirty four hundred. I do believe that it would initiate a match move all the way down here towards about forty eight fifty forty nine hundred is region now of course it would be a little bit you know, a little bit lofty to say that you know if bitcoin breaks this area we’re gonna for sure have a two about a 2009 move to the downside. I do believe that there’s gonna be bounce along the way and perhaps even you do have a reversal somewhere along there as well. We’d have to see that in real time. But proverbially speaking, because it is you know, it is in the cards right here. And and I do want to be thorough with the way that I talk about this. You know, I technically it is there, although I would be looking for bounces around about 60, 400, then 60 or so. Fifty nine hundred and fifty six hundred. And then all the way down to the tippy top bottom at about forty nine forty eight fifty ish region ish. You know, give or take a few bucks. So at the end of the day I do still think that there’s pressure down and and I don’t really have any reason to be even medium term bullish as long as we’re above let’s call it seventy three to seventy four hundred each region. That area very important not just for the medium term timeframe, but also for the high and the macro time frames. You can see that that’s our daily 55 expensive damage right here. Our last local high, if you want to call it that. And then also if we go to the monthly, a time frame, which I think is incredibly important for long term direction macro you might even call it. We do see the yellow twenty one Benjamin average hovering right around actually a little bit below S300 300 treason. To be fair, going back through the annals of history here, we do see if we go to be alecks index. That big one has a lovely interplay on plane off that yellow twenty minutes Namche for both his bull and bear phases whenever above it, generally good whenever blow generally bad looking at the slope of it. Also further confirms that more long term narrative of a macro‘s of you know, of a macro trend. Any time that we have a you know, anytime that we’re living below it and also has a negative slope, well, that’s this area right here where we where where we get stuck below it. We do test a few times up, but on an O on a closing basis, always below. And then boom, big move down. Then a positive slope emerges as bitcoin B gains it right over here and massive move from 300 bucks to twenty thousand dollars. It’s kind of crazy. And that same thing in 2018 to a lesser extent, not as not, you know, not as crazy here. And then once again, it looks like we are once again in danger of of really opening and closing our first multi dollar below it since, well, 2018, which I do believe would really sexual line with those for the target to the downside. But again, you know, on you know, this channel is all about trading, not about fuckin’ being an analyst and trying to like have the call, you know, because it doesn’t matter. It doesn’t matter if you fucking call some if you don’t if you don’t trade for it. So, you know, for free to look for it. For full disclosure, I’m still holding my short from like 70 two hundred. I will close it above 7000 or sixty nine fifty depending upon what I see on a closing basis. And. And I’ll just kind of let the let the let the chips fall where they may. As it’s relatively easy to cover right here. Anyways, on top of that I do want to go back to the daily and talk about some that I again I don’t really talk about this too much, although I have been. More and more we use for a reason, it’s kind of funny. I used to give this I see this indicator a lot of shit, but it actually does. It actually does kind of help my my analysis or at least confirm my analysis using other tools in a more direct way. And that’s the good old Mac de the McDonald’s indicator. And what do you know? We do see that the Mac, he did get up right at right above the zero read and now looking like it’s getting a little bit a little bit tired here. More important than that, we do see obviously bearish divergence between this point and this point. So the momentum to the upside is waning. The question is, though, do we get another spike up to meet this trend line and and play out another move, maybe up to 73? Does that move get us all the way up to maybe even seventy nine or eight thousand? Possible, yes. But you can see that over the lot. You know, over the long period time, it’s momentum being gain to the downside right here. This is all the way throughout February of twenty twenty, by the way, all the way down to March 13th, of course. And now momentum waning to the waning to the upside right here. While these guys get ready to potentially kiss and maybe even cross. Now, of course, that’s not the way to be using the the, you know, the Mac to you just waiting for like, you know, we got a cross. It’s across time. It’s it’s easy now. Not not necessarily. But. But if this cross happens alongside a major level being broken, well, now we have something to really discuss. And do we have a major level in play here? Yes, absolutely. As we just looked at. I mean, shit, man, even if we break this Bluebox right here in close, a daily deal to open and close it daily. A of the 21 which we actually did close yesterday is below I believe. Yeah, just barely. But we did and and especially below let’s call it sixty seven six seven hundred. Then yes I do believe that will that will really initiate the momentum back onto the downside. Further, further confirmed by our lovely daily Stoke’s right here crossing back down from the cross, back down from the critical zone. And I do believe that the two day and three day are kind of set to follow. Actually, no, not not necessarily too much. But let’s let’s let’s take this one step further. So we have this lovely reverse stock indicator cross right here. And what we can see from this is at which point it would actually cross back onto the downside. And what you know, it’s right around 60, 70, 50 ish regions. So I love the confluence there saying that, hey, that area, it’s not it’s not adjusting exactly. What we’re gonna do is just saying that that area is a big area if we start to close these higher timeframes below it. I would expect price actually to come back down below 6000 and, you know, test those areas that we spoke about earlier. Again, you don’t want, you know, want to remain open minded here with price action as overall the higher term timeframes are still are still are still mostly bearish to myself. Looking at the two day right here, I you know, I always come back down to this. I know there’s probably an annoying for the people who 200’s content daily, but for the people who are new here, we do have a very lovely and very, very, very, very, very. One of my favorite cross’, especially for Bitcoin. It’s a two day delay death cross right here, which is getting more and more momentum away from each other. So the strength, the strength of this cross or site D. This cross is strengthening to the downside as you see more and more devons between these two moving to the 55 and a 200. And what does that mean? That means that the balton obviously switching on their cell programs slowly but surely. And as long as we are below the yellow twenty one next from an average, especially on a closing basis, I am more immediately bearish. Doesn’t mean that we can’t pop back up in tests around this region. Yes, it’s it’s so certainly very much within the cards. But as but you know, as long as we’re closing below, that is my disposition from a more defensive standpoint as a trader. Again, you know, I know that like analysts love to get caught up in the fuckin in the fuckin. What do you mean when to call? I wanted to talk about it. Jesus Christ, man. But you know, worst both to the upside and the downside. Beautiful, beautiful cross upside right here. Thousand of fourteen, 14000. Lovely. Before that, we have a great example in 2018. And we do get the death cross here in September 2018. And then Bitcoin does has a 55 once along the way, gets shuffled back down below the twenty one and and it’s and as soon as we lose it right it over here. And by the way, by the way, between cross time and doom’s drop time was from September early September 2018 to November of 2018. So September, October, November. So two to three months realistically. And that produced this lovely drop right here, 52 percent to the downside. Then we have another massively amazing cross the upside in 2015. It was leanness all the way from three hundred and twenty thousand. And then going back a little bit before that, we do see the last death cross before that right here. This one a little bit more similar kind of what we’re doing right now as well. We do see the price action very far away from the cross itself. Yes, the twenty one is governing it, but bitcoin regains at test 55. Sounds familiar to the twenty eighteen one. Right. And then once it loses the twenty one once again on an open and closed basis, it is doom’s drop time all the way down to about 54 percent to the downside. Now again from cross right. And over here this was this was middle of of October to doom’s dropped. You want to call it right here. This was December, early December. So you know, October, November, December, like two and a half months, two months, depending. On where you kind of call it from. And then what do you know right after that? Like we just said, about a 50 percent drop. So, you know, much, much, much in line now two times does not make a trend, of course. But we are working on a third iteration right here. So, you know, if you know, I you know, I think that is of interest. And if we would just play around with numbers, just out of curiosity, if we were to shave 50 percent off price action, because that is, you know, kind of like the going rate from what we’ve seen in the past as meat is always going to do that. But but just put things in perspective that would imply Target all the way down to about thirty five thirty six hundred ish region, which does actually line up with of course one of our one of our lovely gaps on semi’s right here coming in back from what was this February twenty nineteen at the thirty five fifty ish region. So we do see some things aligning with that. And I think if we take it even one step further and put on what is a really, really, really, really, really important movement of true myself in traditional markets, which I think is going to take a bigger pull position in Bitcoin as time goes on. In fact, we already kind of see it being respected here. That’s a 3 7 7. And whereas that committed around it’s coming in around that thirty six hundred all our numbers. So Bitcoin didn’t want to pop back down around there and test it. I think that that would make more or less sense. But I do want to keep an open mind here because bitcoin does want to test the upside. It there’s really not much stopping it from above like 73, 50 to 70, 400 to the eight thousand dollar regions. So if Bitcoin wanted to you know, if the market movers wanted to wash out all the overlevered shorts, they could very easily do it. What makes me think that that’s less likely to happen is all those crosses that we spoke about, plus momentum turning back onto the downside on a bunch different tools that we’ve been using and then open interest volume and volatility all agreeing that we’re very much sure within this formation right here. And when I say mature, I mean that, you know, theoretically speaking, we are definitely more than 25 percent for in this formation right here. If we’re if we’re working towards an apex of about April 19th, April 20th region. So that would suggest that at the very least, Bitcoin will be forced into a decision at around basically the end of this week, April, April 19th to April 20th. So that’s a little bit less than one week from today. So by next Monday, it will be forced. And and sometimes, you know, you do get you get you do get patterns that drone on a little bit. And if no direction is chosen, meaning no direction like like no big move. And we’re looking for a big move here. We’re looking for you know, we’re looking for either a thousand moves the upside or a $2000 move to the downside. Realistically speaking, then then, you know, typically, you know, gets a little bit more time after that. And then something new will emerge from it doesn’t happen all that often, but can happen. So. Fair enough. Good. Good to talk about nonetheless. This is further confirmed by, I believe, the volatility signature, which the volatility signature to me suggests more downside as well. The reason why I say that is because it actually precipitates what we see on the volume and the open interest. And to me, that is more important. It’s more it’s it’s maybe maybe a less direct way of looking at it, but it’s a more leading indicator than the other two, which provides a shit ton of value. And as you can see right here, we contracted all the way from March 13th basically to where we are right now. And once again, it’s expanding. And you see that it’s sustain an expansion over here above the moving average on this. And and on top of that, it’s gaining. It’s it’s it’s it’s gaining to the it’s not to the upside. It’s the volatility. It’s expanding more and more. So the momentum of the volatility is expanding. That’s the word that I’m looking for, which is really important distinction to be made, because as price action comes to the downside from that from that point, by the way, this was the apex right here, quite clearly at the top. And now the expansion phase coming as bitcoin is literally trending to the downside. Does make me lean towards the downside as well. Momentum also does on the lower term timeframes like our like a lovely Stoke’s actually not agreeing with that. We do see that for our stocks. Are she upright here? Just out of curiosity, the reverse stock indicator would say that we have to close below. Where? Oh, isn’t that lovely? Love it when the market agrees with itself at 6 750. So, you know, sixty seven hundred I think is still just an easier or more conservative way of looking at it. But botanically speaking, we have several things from both the higher term time frames and these lower term time frame saying 60 750 is the error to watch for the downside as we’re not just, you know, breaking below, there wouldn’t just kind of produce another another low and confirm this as a downtrend. You know, lower lows and lower highs. Kind of crazy, but it would also it would also it would also switch the momentum back on as we break that level. So so looking at the 3 hour, I’d expect something relatively similar. Oh, what do you know? Six, seven, fifty. Again, what do we see on the two hour sixty seven fifty fucking again. What do we see on the hourly sixty nine hundred. That’s actually technically down right now. So as long as Bitcoin is below sixty nine especially, but I could even say sixty nine fifty to seven thousand this region, even the lower term time frames are kind of difficult here. So. So funnily enough actually while we are here on the outer they by the way he struck about two trips until rather low. It’s in the single digits right now. So we probably ought to be looking at at the very least a short term move, you know, a short term move to to Shihri the tops of the range or the bottom of the range sooner rather than later. And again, this contraction phase coming at. A nice move to the downside. Contracts, price action moves up. What happens when volatility is set to expand once again? Well, looking at open interest going down from yesterday to today would suggest that that that increase in price action with shorts closing. Which means that if bears want to put back on their big red dildos and start throwing them around, they very easily have plenty of ammo to go in dry with that. So that’s why I still align with the bears right here. But hey, I’d be happy to switch round. You know, if if price action warrants that, at the end of the day, again, we’re traders here, not fucking analysts. So not, you know, not really worthwhile to get stuck in these more gang like views. This is what I look at the maths. Look at the 12 hour. There’s a really good computing narrative to everything that I’m saying. And usually when in doubt, the 12 hour tells the truth. What do we see here? Twelve ourselves crossing up from the exact same trend line that we focused on. Oh, I guess I do already have it. No, I don’t have it in from the exact same trend line that we focused on yesterday. So if I am going to be wrong and you know, you know an overall direction, well, that would be a pretty damn good insight that I’m gonna be wrong. I think already have this trend line over here. We’re technically living a little bit below, but doesn’t he be perfect? You know, this is more of a regression than anything. Stokes is gonna be more floaty and flighty. Stalk vaulted percentile on the 12 are very much waiting. We are fully contracted. Well, we’re not fully contracted, but we can still go a little bit longer. But that does suggest that this next expansion phase, we’re gonna see expansion come from all of the lower timeframes and the higher term timeframes. So it should be a pretty a pretty nice move overall. Mm. Um. What else do you want to talk about. Okay. So let’s go look at tradition marks right now. Let’s go look at aemon futures. He’s been kind of a new staple of these of these videos as I think it’s interesting. And and what do we see here, a move back up to the top sort of the range. So we do know or say, which, you know, we don’t we don’t know anything, or at least the more that the more that I learn, the more that I realize I don’t know fucking shit. It’s like really frustrating, actually, but. But overall, overall, looking at you many features right now and and coming into it with a mindset that we do see a correlation between tradition marks and Bitcoin. I think that all the people are saying that it’s not correlated, are starting to really like be quiet about it and fair enough. I you know, obviously I have my Twitter thread on that if you want to. If you wanted if you wanted to bait that, just please go watch that. We don’t need to fucking do it here. I don’t want to go through another like 20 minutes of content that I’ve done a million times. I would I would greatly appreciate it both better for you and myself. If you just go on Twitter and there’s a nice Twitter thread explaining that and you feel free, you can feel free to disagree as well. Maybe even changes in the features while possible, but with many features getting back into the tops of the range. Does bitcoin actually test back up to 70 feet or is any 400? I think it actually could. This would be the most the most supporting of that argument to myself at least. And but the question is, do we put in another local high here? It looks to me like a mini e. Many features are getting a little bit tired in this range as momentum starts to be a little bit tail off on the athlete. Now, do I really trust, you know, post-market type? I mean, not post Magots features, but. But do I trust data? That’s, you know, in nonmarket trading hours, it’s it’s notoriously, notoriously disingenuous, I think. But also it started Mortada percentile being being very low. We are set to either have a nice breakout from this level or a nice break down. That’s what everyone fucking hates about t.a. It’s like can go up, can go down. Well, if it goes down, I’d be notified by moved back down below. Let’s call it twenty seven seventy and I’d look for extension all the way down here to Losada the range about twenty seven twenty seven twenty to twenty seven, thirty ish region by the same token to the upside a lot more, a lot more insight into the upside as this one can really rip actually all the way up to maybe even twenty nine twenty nine to twenty nine fifty which would put spy. right around twenty nine twenty nine say the two nineties to not you 295 region. And now I’d probably put bitcoin as well that prob’ly put bitcoin somewhere around a thousand. So you know if I am going to come up with a bullish case, actually the most bullish thing that I can come up with is looking at traditional markets and saying that it’s it’s very close to break out there if it wants to. However, I really need to see the open of tradition marks before getting too gung ho about that. Anyways, going back down to our many futures. Let’s look at it on a daily or we’ve kind of already their daily sofiane way up there. That’s fine though. You do expect them to kind of operate like that during strong moves, but we do see a nice trend line forming here and we’re gonna be meeting it today and it’s actually got one, two, three, maybe even four touches on it. So, you know, it’s it’s not it’s not all said and done. Also on top of that, we do have what looks to to me to be more of a bear signature on our daily RSI. We do have pretty massive hit and Bear Shepard between this point over here all the way out. While this is this is above thirty one hundred. So they’d be like three 10 on SPI at this point right here. Technically speaking. But this will not be confirmed. This will not be confirmed intel until until Intel. We come back down below yesterday’s daily low at the very least. And if you and if I want to be more conservative, I’d look for actually Monday’s daily low to twenty seven hundred even. And then I’d look for move, move. Full on move all the way back down to about twenty six, twenty six thirty, and that would probably land Bitcoin somewhere around the low six thousands if you want to make a correlation between the two. But I project for bouncer’s well at the very least on a low timeframe. And then if it breaks it then we can have some fun times to the downside. But but I think that that’s gonna be a little bit slower moving than than bitcoin right now. So, you know, not really pressure on exactly at the moment. But we do also have a little bit of a bearish formation going on right here as well in the formation of a rising, rising wedge, which do tend to work out better interest markets. Now let’s look at Japan and see what Japan is doing. Japan’s actually making new highs on this formation. Now, it has been Japan has has Japan been leading recently? No, it hasn’t. But I do think that it’s relevant nonetheless. We’ve seen it lead in the past. But but for right now, you know, technically speaking, we do have new highs on Japan. So, you know, I do wanna present both sides. And that would be a little bit more on the on the good side, if you want to call it that. If you’re bullish, I suppose looking at gold, we do see gold still being the absolute diamond in this fucking market in world markets. Again, not a huge fan of gold or anything like that, but I am a good fan of RMI. I am a big fan of good charts. And we’ve been bullish on this one for a while and I’d still remain bullish on it. I do think that it’s I still think eighteen hundreds is is is likely where this one goes medium and long term. And then we’ll come back after that and reassess. But as long as this thing is especially above like 16, 20, I have no reason to be medium or long term bearish. Short term is going to ebb and flow. Maybe on the short term, we have a little bit of a.. Yeah, we do have a little bit of lost momentum here. We do have some pretty massive bearish evidence in the alley. Even a gel, even a jewel sell signal right here. So, you know, it doesn’t come back down and test around seventeen hundred even or even sixteen, sixteen seventy five. I think that that’s possible. I don’t think you really throw anything off. It’s a higher term timeframes that I’m focused on, some like this. So you know, right now this one does seem to be the hedge. The world is that the world’s kind of green on for the time being. You know, you don’t really see you don’t see this on Bitcoin right now. You don’t only see this on our tradition markets. So fair enough. As it stands right now, and especially as long as we’re close in Weekly’s above 16, 75, I really have no reason to be long term. Bearish on it does mean it can’t happen again. But, you know, I retain that bias which has been keeping us or keeping myself. Well, I don’t even fucking tried this one. So why even talk about it? Fuck it, fuck it. Let’s go over to spy by close a day yesterday. And I mean, it’s gonna be more or less the same as many hard a hard won here. Hard when it looks it looks like right now we’d probly open up right around to eighty twenty two and a half. Can it can we actually get above there those real question or just get above Monday’s high. That’s just gonna be time, you know, time wasted time. Time waiting. I suppose you’ll check out a couple of the top check points and see how well see how they’re holding up right now. Maybe come up with a little bit more of a bias in this market, depending upon if there’s some sort of an agreement, you know, between all the majors and Mr. β, all obviously a little bit more bearish than the rest. I do think what it might do, another test up to the 55 at 165, but overall is lots of things below the one. It’s simple at one seventy two and a quarter. I have no reason to be long term bullish on this thing. I’d still be long term bearish on. It does mean it again doesn’t mean I can’t get above butso, but we need to do that. First and foremost, UGC, this long term trend line coming kind of coming in here as well, which would be coming in right at the 55. So if so if you even did pop back up to the 55, I’d probably look at that as an opportunity. If not, I mean this you know, all momentum also has a pointed downwards right now. The weekly is the weekly actually isn’t is the weekly. ashie isn’t all that bearish. Weekly actually is not all that bearish to be them like wine, like wine. Forty one and a quarter right now as well. The weekly you know, looking more or less kinda bitcoin the daily significantly more bearish than both albuterol and bitcoin itself as long as it’s below the twenty one. And I’m in no way, shape or form bullish on this. And I do think that is propaganda gun for a move down to like thirty seven bucks. If like one is leading this market, litecoin would be the biggest indication that we are going to tell some downside here. Again, if it wanted to pop back up towards forty six and a half, if bitcoin tested around like 73 or Centerfor, they’ll be fine, but it doesn’t change anything from the high. The macro time frames above there though. That’s when the that’s when the floodgates get open to the upside. And now look for a move towards, you know, above north of 50 bucks again, which is really important actually, because what do we see on the weekly right here? We actually see a weekly exponential moving average death cross along the way. It probably will happen sometime around the end of this month, assuming that Litecoin is not able to get above especially 50 bucks and even from a longer term perspective, $60. So it doesn’t mean that can’t happen. But putting perspective in here more sideways is more bearish. Is is kind of the kind of picture that I’m painting from, you know, from the long term on this one, from like a weekly closing bases, you know, especially especially as long as blow, you know, forty five dollars. I mean, that’s not looking all that hot there. Okay, cool. So we’ve already spoken your ear off for the last thirty five minutes. I’ve been looked at probabilities just yet. So let’s go over here, check out our probability chart and align it with our low term timeframe areas once again against sixty seven hundred. The downside on a twelve hour delay, closure, pride does it for me for opening up the floodgates at the very least for a move down to like sixty four hundred point other bouncier and then, you know, same, you know, same shit as we spoke about before. We’d actually time the site, this area a little bit to the upside, a little bit more diabolical. I could get short term bullish for extension on a four hour open enclosure above sixty nine fifty. At the very least, target to move over here to six seventy one 50ish region and probably even by extension hit the three Sony 400 ish region once again above Sundy 400. That’s where things such look really good for the you know. Well maybe not really good, but it looks good for another extension of 600 bucks ish or so at a seven thousand price point. That’s almost 10 percent move. It’s really fucking tradable. And then who knows, you know, maybe continuation after that to the upside. But one thing at a time anyways. So with those areas in mind, let’s go over here to our probability chart and let’s see what we got. So I’m looking at the daily right now with a range of let’s call it sixty seven to the downside and to the upside. We can we can keep seventy three for now. But I do want to see what the probability of seventy seven thousand is sixty nine fifty seven thousand each region. And as you can see right now, the above target probability and again this is for the median higher term time frames above seventy three, that would be thirteen percent. So you’ve seen this drastically go down as time goes on and a failure to break to the upside has well not happened. The downside target probably has significantly gone up in relationship to it all the way up to twenty six and a quarter now. So the downside, you know, the more sideways that we go here, the more and more likely from a probability standpoint, from a mathematical standpoint, with regards to of alternatives until this gets to the downside. Now, I did say that that, you know, the seventh round, it’s a little bit more of a lofty area. Of course, we took like maybe 7000 or setsuna 700. That’s not fair. Maybe Charlton’s maybe talk about 7000, huh? And what do we see here? We see that, you know, the probability of that area taken out to the upside is actually rather high. So I just want to show that another move above that area, which would in turn initiate at the very least another hundred fifty dollars, move up to somebody 50. And I do think 73 to 74. It would get tested up to that is is in the cards here still, but closing above that area and initiating the next set of of targets, at least for myself. Not funded by some non-offensive other is a little bit, you know, a little bit unlikely from a daily close perspective. But but right now that that’s 7000 or our level on a daily closing basis, 39 a little bit above thirty nine and half percent to the downside. Still obviously the same. We could take this one step further and not look at the 6 700 discrete right here and instead take the more conservative area down towards 64. I don’t think that this is warranted. I don’t think that this is needed. But I’m just curious, you know, just for just for throwing this is sake here. Well, what would the probability of closing all of that today be? 5 5 spot 5 by 8 percent. It looks like Fatfat 5 a.D.A. Came in Speek anyways. Let’s get back onto bitcoin right now and time to wrap this bitch up for our disclosure below, especially like 67. I’d like to see like 6 650. Then yes, I do think that’s going to initiate the whole 1 move to the downside, although it bounces along the way at the very least, and perhaps they do reverse. But we’ll come back and read and analyze on real time. By by the same token to the upside, as long as we’re as long as we’re below the 2 index measurement on the 4 hour. I’m not bullish on price action. And if we open and close a four, I’ll do it above it. I would look for extension at the very least, a 71 50 and probably all the way up to 73, 50, 74, kind of in line with what we see in many futures. Once again, kind of testing the prior high region. But but, you know, tight margins here and in a big bad trade, I think gonna be showing it’s showing its hand relatively soon. I do think that, you know, according according to the volume senator in the volatility signature, where she might have the volatility suggests that we might already even be seen it. The volume signature suggests that, you know, before between now and a week from today, we very likely see a resolution here. So that’s going to do for right now. Like I said, will not be on twitch later today or very unlikely to be on twitch. Depending upon a few things, I need to go to the doctor and get a few things checked out. I want to wish everyone well once again and again apologize for the inconvenience and discord. But but at the end, as you know, it’s it’s for a better user experience and zom. And with that said, take care. And until next time.


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