Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency, Finance & Global News – March 29th 2020


Hi guys. Thanks for tuning in to help us sort of nuggets news. Well we’ve got so much to get through today. We welcome 6000 new subscribers in the past two weeks so look thank you all for joining us on the channel. We try to cover all the financial news and the crypto news headlines for you. Then we’ll take a look at the charts at the end. It’s just amazing to see so many people showing interest in what’s happening around the world. So over on our website we’ve created a range of free resources. If you’ve got friends and family they’re asking about you know what is a recession for the first time. How does central banks work. We’re really trying to pump out that content for you as well as our premium resources and community that I know a lot of your loving. Welcome to our 50 new members there this week and some great conversations around what other people are doing in terms of their finance their business the virus itself so it’s a great time to be part of a community if you want that little bit extra. And a lot of giving at the moment so Cofield help dot com today you a little web site created by one of our community members to help people get some freebies in this time of hardship. And in other countries we’ve seen some really kind acts and a half a million people signed up to help the health service volunteers over in the U.K. there. So I think we’re gonna see similar things around Australia in many countries as our healthcare workers are really put under the pump. So there’s plenty of positives happening out there because I know there’s also obviously plenty of negatives happening at this current time. I think in Australia one of the main frustrations is the mixed messages that we’re still getting so maybe we get another update from our Prime Minister tonight on Sunday. But look a million people had to turn out to the polls and vote up in Queensland yesterday. A lot of people were still going to the beaches and as you see here Australia is tracking not too far behind some of these other countries where their hospitals are overflowing. So guys we have to flatten these curve. Stay home. Wash your hands all those things that you’ve heard a million times before. I think people want to know what information the SCOTT MORRISON Government is getting that’s different to say New Zealand that went into lockdown straight away. Some of these European countries have dealt with this remarkably well. So why aren’t we doing what other countries are doing. And I think that’s now what the health experts themselves are asking from Scott Morrison. Share with us what you’re seeing. Just so we can all be on the same page. Now speaking of modelling we’ve got some interesting numbers coming out of the housing market. So real estate that are you. Yes. A lot of these guys have their own narrative obviously desperate buyers with nowhere to live scouring the market. And at this time with this risk of overseas investors coming in to scoop up all these assets on the cheap. But I just want to show you that chart of the ASX 200 Real Estate Investment Trust. Now this is down 50 per cent in a month. So when we’re hearing these numbers from domain and whatnot that property is still going up every day. I don’t know where they’re getting these numbers from. And this is showing you what the investors that are you know the first ones to move in terms of those that have money exposed to real estate in Australia. They are running for the exits and look maybe these funds are now trading under book value but anyway I think this is just a bit of a leading indicator to what we might be seeing coming in the housing market and I don’t think housing is necessarily going to fall 50 per cent but I certainly think it’s misleading to say that property values are still going up. So we’re hearing these stories about these Chinese property developers flying tons of our medical supplies into China. So I think the Australian Government are going to have to look at what’s happening here. Hopefully we don’t actually have any shortages the stories coming out of China is that the worst is behind them. So why do they need all these resources. Is this legal. Who knows. But I think these are the questions that are going to have to start to be answered and it’s going to cause some friction between our political and trade relationships as I predicted last week India who the manufacturer or a lot of the antibiotics globally but particularly some of these new drugs that have been trialled the coronavirus have now banned the export of those drugs. So hopefully we can manufacture them in numbers that’s sufficient in the other countries around the world to manufacture these. Next up I wanted to mention India themselves who have tried to put one point three billion people into lockdown but you can see the scenes here from these crowded cities and it’s just so much harder for these developing nations to do so and I think that’s where we’re going to see unfortunately some some really big case numbers in the next few weeks. Now this is a great little chart from Shane Oliver. You might have heard mixed messages but some new studies that are clearly showing how long the virus can live on different surfaces so cardboard up to two days. But it’s that stainless steel and plastic as well getting up to three days or more there. So you know this is going to be a new paradigm for a lot of people in terms of hygiene and getting used to not touching your face washing your hands. Some Amazon workers have tested positive you know cardboard boxes. We’re just going to be have to be so careful whether you’re in business or whoever you are because of how interconnected the world is these days. So these are the latest case numbers at time of recording. We’ve just passed six hundred and sixty thousand thirty 30000 deaths and that number that ratio is climbing so look the recoveries do take a couple more weeks to play out in hospital. So we hope that number goes down. But a lot of people still not believing you know what I’ve been saying about once hospitals get get crowded and they hit capacity particularly ICU use if we can’t put people on ventilators that that number is going to rise. So guys it’s never been more important to try and flatten that curve early rather than wait till it’s too late. Hopefully we can do more testing soon. We’ve got these game changing tests. You know we’ve heard of these five minute tests some 45 minute home tests also coming to Australia and around the globe soon. So look the smartest minds are working on all sorts of cool technology but the more you test the better idea you’ve got of what’s happening in your country. Another way that governments are tracking what’s going on is using big data. I touched on this last week but this is where people are worried and the conspiracies are coming out about look they’re not going to give these powers back when this is all over and I certainly think that that is something to be worried about. And this is the blame of why markets are crashing. Yes I know that that’s all true. But that doesn’t mean we have to take the virus less seriously until we have it under control and then hopefully enough people are awake and they realize that these are the sort of things that are being snuck through. But you know who knows how many people are shaped that are just not going to put two and two together. So the hugest number of unemployment benefits. Three point three million. I mean unreal. This is greatly dwarfed what happened back in the GFC. So this is a I guess a little sneak peek of what’s going to happen in Australia. I think our statistics take two or three months to come out so we’re probably not going to get a good idea of our numbers. But other than looking at the queues at Centrelink and what not that’s the thing that really worries me there is a lot of Americans have their health care benefits attached to their job. And we’ve obviously seen places like New York get overwhelmed. Now somewhere like Denmark has taken a really good approach to these stimulus packages that are so complicated in most countries so far they’ve basically said that look if you keep your workers on we’ll pay their salaries and keep these businesses afloat we need to do whatever we can to freeze the economy and then make it really easy to restart whereas other countries around the world you know the Fed are saying we’re going to do unlimited QE and you know all these different lending programs you know flatten the curve this that and the other drop rates the FDIC coming out and saying look everyone is worried about bank runs but the Fed has promised to print infinite amounts of money so even if you want to keep that money under your bed it’s safe. Obviously the banks don’t have enough cash if everyone wants to withdraw at the moment but they’re actually promising that if push came to shove and if I tried to withdraw they’d print and print and print all the way up to those fact fractional reserves for people to actually take out the entire amount. So they wanted to get on this early because they know that they don’t actually have the amount of money if everyone wants to keep it under the mattress. So really interesting that they’re running these ads or you know tweets or whatnot on social media saying to people all the money‘s there. The Fed has also made a few tweaks to the rules around banks reserves how much they’ve got to keep as well as this new implementation. And this was the biggest bank accounting change in decades where they actually had to mark these credit losses basically a new accounting standard that was more accurate and transparent. But now the Fed have delayed that because a lot of the the paper and the holdings of these banks is worth a lot less at the moment. So they wouldn’t be able to do that. They might not be solvent if they were to use this new more accurate accounting methods measure. So yes always playing at the edges that the banks and getting their way and the Fed protecting them I guess he’s a breakdown of the 12 trillion that has been passed so far a lot of that going to central banks to address the short term liquidity issues. There’s a huge demand for US dollars around the world some fiscal stimulus other central banks they’re getting ready to buy all sorts of financial assets as we’ve spoken about in the channel before. And as soon as they backed away from this you know infinity whatever it will take towards the end of the week and said look we might reduce it from 75 billion to 60 billion. And remember that’s a day that’s not a month like back when we’re doing QE soon as is any talk of tapering and backing off. You know markets tumble at the end of last week. One sector that’s really at risk is that energy sector we’ve now got oil trading at negative prices and this is insane. So it’s now costing these companies so much to store the oil that actually rather give it away or actually encourage people to take it off their hands because that’s how much money they’d be losing if they had to store all this negative oil prices. Who would have thought. Now obviously this is only in unique sectors and grades of oil but either way a headline that a lot of people would have never thought possible. If you want more of a deep dive into that corporate particularly the oil and energy bond market. This interview with America to say was one of my favorite. I think it only got 10000 views. This was as good as my interview. At least I found it that way because if you’ve watched The Big Short. It was those credit default swaps and those collateralized debt obligations that caused the GFC. And this time around it’s collateralized loan obligations it’s the same thing. It’s just got a different pretty package with all this corporate and oil sector debt that’s now going to fail. And it’s a house of cards waiting to collapse. What’s that interview for more information. We also know the Fed has been buying all the usual bonds. And guess what’s happens to these repo markets. They’ve run out of securities to conduct their repo operations. So why would these banks park any assets at the Fed when they can sell them back to the Fed and the Fed is going to buy them off at whatever price. So this is what we’ve also seen happen in Europe where there was a rush to buy up things like Italian bonds and Greek bonds because now they know that central banks can print money buy those assets off them and they can make money it’s a guaranteed buyer almost a risk free trade. So the Fed is obviously working their way down from those government bonds to the investment grade bonds all the way through to these ETF s of investment grade bonds so all key day. This is one and I was talking about this last week where if you get a short you know the junk bond ETF h y GS and other high yield ETF l q d is the investment grade bond ETF. So yes this was a great show recently. But look at this bounce since the Fed announced that they’re going to do QE infinity and buy corporate bonds so you know don’t fight the Fed. 20 percent bounce there. I’m not sure if they can print enough money to ultimately fight off what happens. But either way you’ve got to put your trading head on a little bit here. If the Fed are going to pump money and buy these assets we could see a rise in all sorts of things. Now the next step from that is the shares and the Fed have hired the world’s largest asset manager to help them manage their assets. You know what sort of world is this. So most of you have heard of BlackRock and their different ETF. So basically BlackRock that themselves could be in a lot of trouble get to help bail out themselves and all their friends. They get to take that money. The Fed’s printing and then saying hey what which we should. Should we buy. Yeah let’s buy some BlackRock ETF. Absolutely insane what is happening amongst all this. Obviously there’s been a rush for gold and real assets stories of Comex being short in terms of those hundred ounce bars. We spoke about that the other day in terms of the silver market and how that dislocation has happened. I did do a video about that how the ETF Price has really dropped far below what you can get your hands on bullion for so there’s a little bit of a arbitrage of sorts opportunity there. Some people told me that’s not our arbitrage it actually is a type of arbitrage. So watch that video did about how to take advantage of that silver market dislocation at the moment. Now there’s lots of gold tokens as well and these have become very popular because of what’s happening at the moment. So a race to you know crypto pegged us dollar coins and gold pegged crypto coins as well it’s just great to see that we have all these options that weren’t there in the last financial crisis. So Pax OS and their packs gold token can also now be used as collateral for loans. So there’s this new finance 2.0 you know the world of deep fire it’s exploding and I love to see that overlap it has here because a lot of investors do want to hold gold and still interact with define what not. So those tokens are available on FCX you’ve got X 80 packs G which I’ve mentioned before. You can trade those just like you would any other token. We’ve got that link down below that get you guys a discount on on trading on FCX on all the fees. And I know a lot of you enjoyed that tutorial we did last week about the bitcoin options and how to hedge in case we have a big price fall and sure enough that’s happened. So if you did buy some puts you’ve already profited from those as well so congratulations to those of you that watch that tutorial and learn something now by did delist those leveraged tokens that FCX have. And when they first bought out those tokens I did a video explaining why I don’t think these are a good idea and the dangers around them because a lot of people here are you know double or triple leveraged Bitcoin I’ll just buy that and in a bull market I’ll make three times as much money but that is not how it works because of decay and drag that those tokens have in the rebalancing. So if you want a detailed explanation of how that all works head over to that U.S. guys under investing education and is unit number four down there now thanks to us what’s the number on capital. I know that you guys are loving what is going on in terms of being able to manage your own self managed super. And even if he can’t we’ve got a lot of questions coming in about super funds being able to access that at the moment if you’ve lost your job. So yes we do plan on having Mike on the channel to take all your questions. We’re also going to get Adrian Adrian back on because it’s tax time again soon. Wow how. I mean those of you that are taking the time to learn about financial markets and what’s going on. I really hope you are appreciating putting all these pieces together and even if you haven’t necessarily made a lot of money so far these are just those lifelong lessons that I know a lot of you are enjoying. Either way sorry. Sorry. The ASX. They have pushed back their plans to launch the distributed ledger. They want to get all the stock trading on a block chain. But look now is not the time with all this market volatility to be playing around with new systems so they have delayed that there. We’ve also seen the digital dollar. There’s a lot of excitement about this last week when the Fed passed that b 2 trillion dollar relief package. That is not going to be part of what got passed initially either way but I definitely think that’s coming to some degree in this space just gets hotter and more competitive every week. Silver gate renowned crypto bank they did have a bit of an issue this week. They have solved that. There’s so much competition and I do feel a little bit for example pay at the moment. I’ve got that lawsuit hanging over their head. Brad Garling House has been in the news for backing the height of the bull market where he was talking about how long he is repeal and what not in the same time they were selling millions of dollars so whether or not that leads to anything. I know there’s a lot of controversy around that at the moment MoneyGram as well. You know they’ve been selling a lot of those tokens. So we’ve got so many crypto trials going on that telegram have been denied the S.E.C. actually have sided with that injunction against the grand tokens. So they’re not allowed to issue that the tokens from that ICAO sale at the moment. We’ve also seen Quique back away from that jury trial. Hundred Million Dollar tokens sell there. So yeah there’s a little legal battle was going on in the crypto space that are really going to shape what happens in the next couple of years that money Graham. As I mentioned before the thing that frustrates me here is that the narrative is that money Graham are getting these tokens to build liquidity and that’s essential if you want to have all these transfers going around the globe but then they’re selling all these tokens that they get. So how is that building liquidity. Again let me know in the comments below I’ll get Sam back on in the future to talk about that. We did talk about last time but again I just don’t see how you can call selling these tokens as soon as you get them building liquidity. Crypto friendly bank resolute launches in the US. Check this check out this app guys it’s very cool as you to see in different currencies and make transfers around the world one of many apps these days crypto friendly bank launching another stable coin over in Switzerland they’re next up we’ve got India. Tech Mahindra have sped up their cross-border transactions using block chain. So again this is where I find really hard for those that are early adopters because there’s so much competition these days. Ali pay rolling out a patent revealing even more about the China central bank digital currency that they’ll be working very closely with the government on their most people already use that Ali pay and their mobile for all those payments. Coinbase is retail wing so you’ve probably heard of Coinbase commerce. They’re already processing 200 million in transactions. They’ve also integrated the Coinbase wallet. Now with all the different defined lending apps. So some of it’s non crypto savvy can install this Coinbase app know refill it from their bank and start lending in earning interest and that’s the next wave of adoption which is very exciting at a time when you’re not going to get much of an interest rate in a bank. We also saw the brave browse upon wrapped with finance for in app trading. So one click these days whether it’s Khyber uni swap buying it’s integrating with brio as well if you don’t have these browser already guys it’s free to use it blocks all the ads check out brave browser bond it’s also releasing their own debit card initially to be trialled in Malaysia and then that’ll go out around the world you know 10x Coinbase in Australia we’ve got coin jar we’ve got a video coming up soon when you guys are going to get a free coin jar swap card so there’s that many crypto cards these days it’s very cool to watch I have released their styling solution supposedly scales to more than Visa’s payments. So we’re talking thousands of transactions per second. This is known as or bourse Hydra. So I’m not sure why they’re releasing this before they’ve got the Shelly might net out but either way cool to say that Kate and I are working on scaling solutions. South Korea’s biggest bank also launching a custodial service. They’ve patented that there. We’ve got the me clearing up some guidelines around holding bitcoin for people. That’s the next story I want to get to in just a second here as well. Sorry backed in terms of the physical delivery rising 44 percent in March. So this is very similar to the gold market where normally people are just trading and they don’t want to take delivery but all of a sudden when they think the prices are low to what represents intrinsic value they want their gold delivered that actually what they Bitcoin delivered to the to their address. So that’s actually what we want to see that gets rid of any of these games that you can play by not holding real gold a real Bitcoin. So back to the same age group here this story I want to mention was about adding mining to what they’re doing to boost profits. So for the last couple of years I’ve been talking about anywhere that has excess energy. It’s a no brainer if that is going to waste to start mining bitcoin or different cryptos. And someone like to see me mentioning that they want to get into Bitcoin mining. You know that’s that’s really big news that I think fell on deaf ears this week. We’ve got bit was looking to launch a retail fund. So one of my thesis is if you’re new is that money is going to flow into large cap coins whether it’s the grayscale products or all this beat was 10 10 index fund. They want to open that up to retail investors and some of the prices we’re seeing at the moment with top 10 coins down over 90 percent still. You don’t necessarily have to go scouring for these hidden gems to get fantastic returns in the next bull market. So block one have absorbed EOS New York. Now these guys were top three or four block produce for iOS and there’s one thing that really frustrates me from the outside looking in watching some of these block produces that were really there for the community side of things no longer actually being able to afford to operate because of the way the voting is working and a lot of the exchanges are still I believe gaming the system to some degree and a lot of the Chinese block produces. So if you’re from the iOS community let me know what you think about that down below but kind of sad to see someone like iOS New York going out of business or being absorbed by block 1 themselves now. BLOCK One investing 150 million into a voice that a centralized social media app but a lot of privacy concerns linger because you get after KYC to use these. So to me that certainly is a step away from a fully decentralized you know anonymous private online social media app because they are going to be storing all that user data with third parties and block one and what not. So let me know what you guys think about that in the comments down below. Micah have decentralized their governance that M.K. token now has more guest value or power in terms of what you can do to make decisions. A lot of the community members and team hold a lot of make a token so they’re still going to have a say. But it’s a step in the right direction to fully decentralizing maker and I think the die a stable coin is my favor and the most important in the ecosystem at the moment because of how integrated is with everything Microsoft have filed for a patent for a crypto mining system that uses a body activity data. So it’s called these black mirror world we’re living in when I read these headlines but this is what I’m going to talk about more in future and we’re gonna get a privacy expert on to talk about what is happening because I think the boundaries that were already being pushed are really being crossed with what’s happening with the coronavirus. Now Bitcoin the hash rate we’ve had a big fall lately 45 percent was a 16 percent difficulty adjustment. The other day. So hopefully that equals out. We’ve got our monthly crypto mining episode coming out next week. We can talk about that in more detail but a lot of mines are having to shut down because they’re simply not profitable at this level. It does make Bitcoin slightly more vulnerable to attack you get to hear about those headlines but the reality is the hash rate is still you know far bigger than anything else out there. And it’s where it was you know just months ago because of how quickly it has grown. But what the worry is that if the smaller house right coins don’t pick on they’re the folks but Bitcoin Cash have their halving in 10 days at that price. It becomes half as profitable to mine Bitcoin Cash and we’re already seeing all those miners leave that network. So these are the communities that are going to be more vulnerable to attacks particularly BSB. They’ve gone even lower hash rate again. And it’s actually being gamed this week. So half of the network got taken over by someone that was just trolling as they say here they don’t know who the miner is and they’re just collecting blocks and not processing some of the data that should be going into the block chain. So crazy crazy stuff. And it’s only likely to get more of an issue we’re gonna see more 51 percent attacks as the coins go down in value. If that bear market continues and after the harmonies occur now it’s not all bad news for Bitcoin. A lot of what I’m talking about is short term. You guys know that I’m still boys for the long term and we’re seeing tweets for buy Bitcoin and buy gold rise. So as I mentioned at the very start of the episode people want to know what’s going on why are they losing their jobs. Why is there people printing trillions of dollars. I’ve never heard this before and they’re going down the rabbit hole. So it’s great to see all this is happening. The ingredients are coming together for the greatest bull market in history once the soul passes and the dust settles unchain data still shows us that people are huddling exchange flows people are buying and then taking their coins off in exchange to horror. So that’s all heading in the right direction. So when I talk about bitcoin going down it’s kind of putting my trading hat on its for the short term. I haven’t sold any of my long term coins at all guys. You know I’m a hustler. I’m happy I want to have a seat on the train and it takes off. I don’t wanna be late to the party but at the same time if we can do our technical analysis look at patents make some money hedge on the way down. This is one that I shared actually on Twitter as well as in our group where I do give more detail and daily rundown is about what I see happening in different markets and explained how to use the move contract. So as I said on FCX before one of the products they’ve got their move contracts week actually bet on how big of a move bitcoin is going to have on any given day. So you don’t need to know if it’s going to go up or down. You don’t have to have a direction you can just bet on the move and that was one of the best trades on a hate TV court. That as well as great to get some of those messages some of you want more education around that. And I will be doing that for you as well. So tying it all together let’s have a look at the Bitcoin price. It looks like we are heading lower out of this wedge. Look the first test that I would be watching he guys is that sixty one point eight percent some of you have asked about the Bollinger bands and moving averages. I’ll do more write ups about how they work at different times but the Bollinger bands for me most valuable when we get to extremes like a big sell off here and then we tend to mean a little bit as we spoke about at the time. So that’s what that is what I’m watching now technically when we have a patent like that we get a target down below 3000. But there’s so many people I know whether it’s raw poll from real vision or the big funds people that are cashed up at the moment that huge demand for US dollars. All those people want to push their money into assets. So whether it is the stock market whether it’s gold and we have another liquidity crunch where gold silver Bitcoin oil and everything goes down the Fed are going to fight this thing and print as much money as they can. It’s going to lead to hyperinflation eventually that he’s gonna be so so bullish for Bitcoin. But I will keep you guys up to date every day with what is happening. Head over to our website. If you do want to join our group for those daily updates. Otherwise I hope you’ve enjoyed that content guys. Place it that lock button. Subscribe to have an already he goes around and I’ll talk to you again soon. Cheers.


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