Bitcoin DOUBLE Trap Analysis?! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis


It’s a trap. My son, my son and my son. Let me let me get me to my son. Welcome back to Crown Crypt, OK? That’s. We’ll get started for the Saturday morning over here from a actually a very bright and sunny Helsinki, Finland. It’s almost six degrees Celsius here. So for those of you who speak Fahrenheit where just above freezing, which is good and I didn’t get some sun of which I will not be getting any myself because I’m gonna be on Twitter all day after this as I have as I plan to. To carry on the tradition that we’ve been doing for the last like three, four weeks now. So if you want to hang on our side, if you want to hang out a little bit later, I’ll be on probably right after this. Right after I post a stream. Also, I apologize for the very dark hue on this video right now. I don’t know what’s going on, but OBSS has been darkening, whatever the output is, more and more over the last like month or so. I have no idea why this is happening. It’s rather annoying. I wish it was like true to color because it’s obviously a few shades, more than a few shades lighter than what you’re seeing right now. But of course, me being a visual person, I like to harp on those sorts things. Maybe you care, maybe you don’t care. But hopefully everything is visible here. And if anyone you happen to know a quick fix for this. If this is a known issue, because for whatever reasons happened on this computer. But on my other one, which is rather strange anyways, I would appreciate some help with that. If you do happen to know, if not all good you can do is deal with it as it stands right now and I’ll figure it figured out over time. Also, what else do I want to say? Yeah. With the discord. I figure I should make another announcement about it. But the disco community, if you haven’t already found out, or if you just kind of came back and haven’t watched any TV is from the last few days or this past week, you probably noticed a bunch changes with discord. What’s happened is we require now a verification by this verification bot, which essentially promptly with a message the first time that you log into the server. So that means if you are already a part of the server before this past week, then you will actually need to leave the server and rejoin the server if you want to have those those that that access restored back to the general community. It’s very simple to do. It’s a little bit annoying, little bit of an inconvenience, but it does make for a better community. And I’m actually really enjoying kind of the more intimate feel right now as it’s actually helped a little bit lessen the load on my inbox, which means that I get to hang out more in the community, which is what I enjoy most. Not fucking answering the same goten question in DMD all fucking day anyways. On top of that, what I should say all GICs side is if you are in the program, if you have if you have the team program, the options program or even the jewel, you don’t need to do any of that. You already have access and and you won’t need to make any change with that. Please not leave unless you actually want to leave. Of course, you know, we’re not here to handcuff you, but it’ll just create more work for both yourself and myself. And we don’t even do that. But if you own part of the general community, yes, you will be prompted with that private message. If you do leave the server and then come back to the server again, there is a an invite lincoln. description of the video or on Crown dot net, whichever one you want to take. And and then and then just follow the rules in that private message or site. Not the rules, but the directions and that private message to basically verify yourself with like a quick capture, some like that and and then all get. So other than that what else do I want to say. Crouching application front of a very face. Found it aptc crown attorney dot net. It’s free. And now our developer is actually he’s recovering. He’s going to be released from quarantine, I believe, either tonight or tomorrow. He actually even joined in on the twitch stream last night. It seemed to be really good spirits and really looking forward to the next update for this, which is what’s gonna bring out the open interest trout, which couldn’t come fucking sooner. It’s so funny how the delay happened right at like the most critical moment because this would have been perfect to actually show the interplay between open interest price action volume and volatility, of which we’ll just have to wait a little bit longer. But it should be relatively soon right after he gets ready if he gets well and his wife’s already covered. So that’s really good as well and we’re very much happy for that. Now, it’s it’s because he’s creating amazing things for us for free, but or for the community for free. But but also, while that’s a person I like. So fair enough. Anyways, anyways, looking at this right here, we do see that open interest is more or less steady from yesterday to today. We haven’t seen any major breaks the upside or to the downside, which still lets us know that the big break out of this formation has yet to come. Meaning that in open iron, an open mind is the right is the right call in this as we are still a part of some greater hole formation. And that’s what I’m gonna be doing today. A little bit different because mostly the analysis from message to today’s can be very similar. However, I’m just gonna redo my charts here from fresh scratch and see if we see anything different, anything new and to go on from there. So there’s gonna be a little bit of a shorter video. I do think and and I but I do want to keep that in the back of my mind. The open interest still kind of still kind of within range, suggesting that we are still a part of some greater formation here. And that’s further going to be verified by metrics anyways. Looking at all the other all the other top dashboard metrics. More or less steady. We really haven’t seen too much change in these for like the last couple weeks, actually. Fear and Greed Index was awesome in between like a 10 reading. 20 Reed We are right at Rio right now to an 18, I still think that this is the one thing that makes me reconsider my inherent bearishness on this, as that would be a damn good indication that we are kind of climbing the wall worry as bitcoin is to next off the lows and the market’s incredibly fearful still. But does that supersede price action? Fuck no, it does not. So let’s go to Price Action Mountain over here and start off with actually the four hour. Now, do you want to start off with this right here? Just very simple. Bitcoin could have a chance to undo unfuck the death cross and go back in the Golden Cross land on the 4 hour, which I do believe would at the very least give us a test back up to about 70, 350, 70, 400 ish region. And that’s where things get interesting once again from the higher term time frames. Do I think that they weren’t going to break above that, you know, right now? No, actually, I don’t think so. Again, I I actually do still lean a little bit more to the downside on this. I think that this is I think that this ends up being a trap, but my opinion is not relevant. You should not give a fuck about my opinion, my opinions wrong all the time. He thought wrong yesterday when I was when I was our side two days ago when I was bearish. And we had this nice little pump up over here. Now, for full disclosure, I’m not short right now. I’m completely covered and I’m just waiting for the next piece of edge. But but at the end of day, I do not trade my opinion on trade. Technical analysis and technical nous right now is shaping up for a little bit more of a test. The upside here as the Golden Cross is being hinted at and will inevitably happen. The longer that big remains, both 69 50 pivot and and if and if we do initiate that, I will at the very least look for a test back up here to the top side of this prior range, which could now plot in with a nice little Bluebox territory. Got a 73, 50 to 70, 300 ish regions where I have it now and we’ll put a nice little blue box in there is going to look Apsley massive for our. But realistically, this is only $50 range. So so we can actually even while we’re on here in the lower term timeframes, take this one step further and put a nice horizontal lot, a current resistance, which seems to be holding holding Bitcoin back for the time being. In fact, we can actually mark this off as a little bit of a liquid zone as the Wix and bodies do seem to match up pretty damn well and just shove it in right there. And if you trading the very, very, very, very low time frames, which I think is absolute death and destruction on especially on a fucking weekend, for God’s sakes, that’s what I’ll be using, although I would certainly not use that at all because I do not trade on the weekends and I don’t care to trade on the weekends. Doesn’t mean that you can’t have great trade opportunities on the weekends. But I’ve found that over time my edge as a technical and technical analyst, my edge is seems to be stronger during the weeks trading period. Whenever you know, as long as the are kind of trading alongside anyways to the downside, a little bit more easy as that 200x mentioned average on the four hours still offers up the lovely, the lovely trampy trap behavior. So if we do want to reference the sort of opening statement of this video of which the opening statements are usually just for fun and whatnot, but there is a pretty important one right here. If Bitcoin does break back down below the chin ADX Benjamin average. This will be a this will be a trap and this will get in this. This is very much under question right now. And again, this is very low time frame stuff right here. But this is very much on a question right now because this is a weekend and I am very skeptical of any sort of moves that I do see on a weekend as this. As it stands right now, we are still still in a downturn on the 4:00 hour. It’s looking like the can have a chance to actually reverse this trend, though, especially if we know especially we take out on a closing basis 31 sites, 31 30, which we’ve gotten pretty damn close to already closed net last. That last local high somewhere right around 50, 100. Even so, it will very likely have a chance. And if it is going to happen, it probably does actually happen today or tomorrow. That being Saturday or Sunday, depending upon your part of the world. And then it will initiate the aggressive sorry, the Golden Cross right over here. And at the very least, a touch back up here to 7:03, Sony to 7/3 50ish region. That’s where the higher term time frames can change around. If I do see a break above Sony, three fifty and a four hour closure above there, especially if it’s like, you know, a higher time frame, like a 12 hour or daily, although plane, the plane a lower term time frames right now, maybe a little bit more relevant than I would look for. Extension actually much higher. Much, much higher. In fact, all the way to the tippy, tippy top from this last little auto block area right here from the higher time frame perspective, in a range between about seventy seven fifty and seventy nine 50ish region could be collapse and make it a little bit shallower. So it’s a little bit less, less massive actually. Yes we can. Because what I’d actually like to do is if we really do get that leap up, it’s really this liquid zone right here that I think is actually more more important because that’s where your distribution is gonna come from, most likely if it does turn into distribution anyways. So I would be looking at that as a range between about. Yeah. Seventy nine and 80, 50, so a hundred all range. I think that’s a little bit more reasonable than a $20 range. So see as a big one does calls on new highs, especially on a higher type from like a twelve hour ordeal. I do think that we will very likely work our way up here. But remember, according to the according to our opening metrics like the open interest rate here, we are still seeing what we would expect if Bitcoin was caught in a greater formation on the whole macro scale. Because what I really want to show, which I can’t right now, is an open interest chart, which would have shown you that open interest hit the rock bottom that we’ve seen. And typically the rock bottom for, you know, four major moves down around about 500 million open interest at around March 13th down here in the. Lower 4000 to our region. And ever since then, it’s just been also about a 200 sorry, about 150000 or sorry, 150 million dollar range from here to where we are right now. And when usually we do see the moves, the upside actually open is typically coming down. When we see the moves coming to the downside, we typically see open interest going up, which is actually indicative of redistribution, which I do believe we have a good case for as well. So while I am presenting a little bit more of a bullish case right here, I want to first say at the outset, this is a weekend. I do not trust this. I think that this is like the perfect time for a trap. And and I do think and I do have my reservations that Bitcoin will close above sunny 350 ish region right here. If it does, you know. Fair enough. I’m happy to. My my my opinion obviously proven wrong again. This is why I don’t trade it. But but but I would be looking much higher as we just kind of looked at, you know, another 700 hour move perhaps in the cards, which is very much tradable, especially at a seven thousand or price point, cause that’s a 10 percent move. And that’s fucking amazing home by itself. But as it stands right now, what I would be looking at again is with critical importance on the 200X. Benjamin, have it right here because there’s you know, we’re obviously shopping around right now. Trend technically is still down as it is right now, but very it is going to have a chance to actually reverse itself. It has a damn good. It has damn good setup right here, to be fair. We do see momentum. Positives are floating, but for our stocks technically still upright here, they are getting a little bit more mature. But I do think that that’s going to at least give it a try. We’re pregnant at the very least, get another way to the upside. And then the question is, does it turn into rejection or not? I don’t have any real opinion on that, especially on a weekend. I just have an opinion on what it would look like if we get a wake up and then closed back down below, let’s call it seven thousand especially or or especially 69, 50. That would be a damn good indication that we are gonna be testing the bottom side, our side, the down side of the range. By the same token, if we if we see if we see a closure above Saudi 320 350, an open interest shoots up above 700 million. Again, that would be a damn good indication that this is that this is getting ready to have a little bit of boola enjoyment to the upside. Anyway, it’s three hours soap’s headed down right now and we do see that there quite literally nosediving. So I think that that’s a little bit more on the bear side to our stocks are up right now hourly are going to be floundering around, most likely an up. So the the general consensus among the lower term time frames that it actually is up right now. So I do think that at the very least, we’re gonna to get a test up here. And this is flagging down. This is constructive. This was a weekday. I’d say that this is bullish as fuck. But because it is a weekend, I’m very skeptical looking at a stock vaulted percentile on our hourly. We are we’re very, very likely to have a move today. You know, very likely to have a move to not just a short term timeframe range, but probably the medium time frame range, which is basically up here towards that twenty three hundred dollar number. And to the downside, that’s not this guy right here at 69 50, that’s actually a little bit lower, probably somewhere down around here, around 60, 70, 50 ish region to sixty seven hundred even is what I’d be looking toward. So I’ll put another blue box in right there. Still kind of the same range that we’ve been looking at yesterday. But this is just this is just looking at liquid zones and order blocks right now. We can now combine this with an analysis of the greater formation. But before we get into that, again, with recalling that the open interest has been essentially suggesting that we’ve been in one major massive formation this whole way from March 13 to where we are right now. That’s further confirmed by the volume signature, which, as you can see, has been that nice tailing off from left hand, right hand side as. As that does suggest that we aren’t when massive consolidation, some like this with a resolution point or an apex coming in early May. So that means we’re very likely to get a resolution probably within the next probably within the next week. And I do think less than that. I think I said earlier this week, probably around somewhere, somewhere between this the middle of this current week, that we just kind of finish here and then also like the Monday, Tuesday of this coming week. And I do still think that that actually does kind of align with that, say about, you know, 75 percent fall. We’ll still call it about April 21st. It looks like that’s three days away. So I’d be Monday, Tuesday ish region, depending upon which which part of the wall that you’re in. So, you know, this this read right here now tells us that it’s very likely that we should be looking at this as one massive pattern formation. Now, does anything fit in the way that we’ve been looking at it? Well, I think actually, yes, although we’ll need to go to not beat Mexico because there’s you know, we have an outlier price action right here. Or do we? Well, let’s actually let’s actually order the daily first. And let me let me let me chart this off. First and foremost. So for USAn, again, you know, tailing off from left hand, right hand side, also tailing off on the stock, 42 percent on a daily, which suggest that we’re going to spend a lot more time in this stuff in this region, actually. But the 12 hour, which should get a pretty damn good move is getting well. Now, as is kind of kind of in that same trajectory, actually, let’s see when we’re the apex come in around middle of May rather than early May and probably has a resolution here. Twenty fifth to twenty seventh of April is usually when they become extremely likely to break. So still within the range of next week. So both you know, both metrics suggesting somewhere in, you know, in the range of like early next week. Till late next week. This is why I’d like to see the open interest, because I’m sure that we’d be able to kind of like cut it to the middle there as well as we’re using, you know, vault volumes can be a little more direct volatility can be more of a derivative, but both very much, very much important. And now it’s actually look for a potential pattern going on right here. So let’s see if we are if we are going to be on a bit Mexico, how this operate. Well, we do see some like this. The problem is, is that while you can kind of plot this out right here, which would suggest that, you know, we’re probably in some sort of like major, massive rising channel, which is a redistribution formation. It’s not going to look the same on the other majors. And I do think that it’s important to get consensus on this market. Saarland Right. So I should’ve gone to a daily. OK. Apologies hold. I need to redo this. That was that was not proper. This one now just looks all kinds of weird, all kinds of wonkiness. Perhaps even this area works a little bit better. Of which maybe we just tested already. But again, this this is kind of the odd man out. This is the alpha. This is why we really have to look at all different ones. Now, we already know G. DAX kind of plotted out from yesterday. We do see some sort of a rising wedge going on right here. Vimes Signature does fit on it. And we actually would have technically already broken it. But we’ve read what? But we’ve re-approach the broken support and now testing as resistance once, twice, maybe been working on a third time, which, by the way, would be coming in right here at our next topside blue box on the top side of this current formation at about 70, 300 ish region in this in this range between 73, 73 and 7:03 50ish region. So it would just be considered a retest of that. Now, do you have a competing one going on right here? I think that that’s actually also relevant to we’ll talk about that, but that’s only relevant to the lower term timeframes. But I wanted to pull up a fresh chart if I can. Let’s see and see if we can recreate this in a more obvious way. Well, actually, yeah, we do have one here. However, could we chart it equally the same as something like this? I think so, yes. Which would still say that we’re within the context of the greater rising channel. And I do trust channels a lot more than wedges, of which the one that we’re looking at probably was a wedge. So what you know, what’s the right answer here? Technically, both. Actually, technically both, because they do fit. And it would suggest that we’re slowly but surely kind of tipping this one over as long as we are below that last broken trend line, which I had charted more like a wedge formation like this and that we’re just kind of retesting right now, as you can kind of see, it’s kind of like hard to fit it right now, which is not a good sign. So maybe it’s not the one to be doing. But I think the channel fits a lot more obviously, and does fit the narrative of the descending volume and does fit the narrative of the descending historic vaulted percentile and does fit the narrative of what you would see on the open interest if we could actually try to back out because it was down around about 500 million right here, popped up to about 700 million PSI. But you know, also to between about five million, 7.2 million on all these moves, downside moves, which seem to be accumulating open interest and upside moves seem to be lessening open interest. And we did see the same thing yesterday as well when bitcoin did or started two days ago or a day and a half ago, I guess now where Bitcoin did move its way to the upside. Let me just make sure that recording I am according to my phone’s working. That’s great. Fuck. Can you hold a thought? Maybe crown you fucking moron. But but my point is, is that, you know, on that last move, the upside, we did see openings just go from I think a little bit above 700 million. I think 710 million down to where we are right now, 650 million. So that’s suggesting that shortz’ closing is running the price actually the upside. So it’s it’s still shorts and control as far as I’m concerned. And with the overall great information still in a redistribution pattern, I am skeptical on this price action, as I have been saying. So. So, you know, on this on this fresh chart right here, I think it’s I think it’s just more easily seen that we are going from level to level on a daily something like this to the upside, something like this to the downside. And until we break one of these, there’s not really like a another medium or even long term trend to really be made as there’s no real resolution below sixty six hundred. Yes, we do have resolution. And I would be looking for a move back down to at the very least fifty eight fifty nine hundred and that’s you know that’s almost a thousand or move at a six thousand dollar price point. I mean that’s what more it’s certainly more than a 10 percent move and almost a fifteen percent move. Pretty damn good. Again these are I just want to show that the edges on these trades are worth waiting for. To the upside, as I said as well above this region right here. I do, you know. You know, we could even stay within the context of this rising channel gun for the two accidentally damage up here. And that’s 79, 30. Remember, that’s pretty much it within the confines of this blue box. So we have the upside right here. And I’d still be kind of testing the topside resistance on this baby right here. So I just want to show that, you know, longer term, I am skeptical on Bitcoin, like actually just fucking greengold on its way to the to the moon from this region, even with the having all that good stuff in order, you know, could that come into play? Yeah, absolutely. But I think that there’s just more tangible things on the board right now that I as a trader would trust in more than me, you know, events that everyone’s fucking known about since the eternity since the dawn of eternity. So because, you know, the general kin’s are the general knowledge is that. If it’s public information and you’ve already known about it and you’ve been making decisions based upon it, then it’s very much reasonable to think or you have to defensively think if you’re like a money manager managing big funds that other people are doing the same thing. It’s fucking free information. So it’s probably probably priced in, especially with regards to the fact that we have features now too, which is essentially what allows those miners to kind of make decisions well, quite late in the future. So they get to make decisions, you know, for like last year calling with this year’s knowing that they that they’re gonna have the having, you know, relatively within, you know, some somewhere within that day. Anyways, I’m getting way off topic right now. Jesus Christ, man. Let’s go see what is closed at us. Seems close. A little bit more of a more as a rejection, a little bit more TOPY ish to me, 1725. So keep that in mind, because going in to Sunday, I do believe that we’re prall going to be held around this region. Now that again, that doesn’t really give us any real buys on this price action as the way that I look at this right here is that I’m not. While we do have the death crossing, while the death cross moving averages are getting much divergence, waking each other. I don’t play this bearish as longs for as long as are above the 21 expansion on average, which right now we obviously are. And that will not be taken out to the downside as long as we are above about sixty nine eighty five, which is essentially where the twin index mentioned average will be on spot. And I think that this is a easier look on price action as well, because if we do take out the low side of this, it’s going to look like a D-O-G total plus plus fall due to the downside plus below a major moving average. And I’d imagine that going to see much more cities turn back down around with it. We do see yeah. We’re gonna see Stokes carry on to the downside daily. RSI probably do the same thing as well. Still looks overall bearish to me, so I would say that I’d be a damn good insight, but that means that at least for myself, I’ll have to wait until Sunday at some are 8 p.m. Eastern time or so. It’s actually Sunday at 5:00 p.m. Eastern hour, Central Standard Time. In order for these babies to open back up and potentially give me a source of edge for this. So again, putting all the puzzle piece together and going back to spot price action right here. Let me actually go back to our Bit Mexican chart. Well, let’s actually go look at the let’s let’s let’s let’s actually look at the measure move of this as a rising channel. If this is going to operate is right, that channel will actually go back to a fresh chart here. I’m just curious. Again, this videos can be a little bit in the short aside. I think overall this one going to show potentially a break. You know, if we were to break down, if we were to break down a measure, move all the way down to the. It’s hard to know because, you know, you don’t, you know, really take it until we actually break down. But proverbially speaking, is assuming that it would come maybe like early next week if it does come to the downside outlook for a move down to about 50 500 ish region of fifty six hundred. That does make sense with the 200X Benjamin average and turn it simple moving average or so and more so the churn, it’s simple actually at this point is a unit expansion we have is getting way up there. Turn it simple as all the way down around actually 56 it looks like right now. So it’s got a little bit of work to do. What’s up, Alex? Good to meet you, man. And welcome to the cave. And also, I wanted to see how Samis closed the weekly. The other weekly on SGMD looks a lot more like a hang mandella right there as well, which is more inherently bearish if you are just going off of dildo formations, which I actually don’t trust that much in bitcoin land. Weekly stuff is going to certainly be sorry. Are they going to suddenly be down? Let’s go look at this. The reverse stock indicator says they will cross. They will cross the upside if we do close anywhere above 60, 350. So they should close. They should cross up next week. By the same token, we do have a rejection on the weekly RSI. And I do think that that’s probably going to be held there. So, you know, is this going to be a one off to the upside here? I think probably, yeah. Looking at the reverse RSI EMC cross yet just shows 73 50. So that areas can be a big area going forward here as long as are below there. I am not bullish for the medium or long term. It’s only short term ranges. And that’s something I can say with well, at least for myself, for my trading behaviors with, you know, ads like kind of like an anchor of my trading behaviors right now. And of course, major moving averages on the weekly as well are in a much in a very bearish posturing. You know, even if we do pop back up and test around seventy eight to seventy nine hundred ish region, as we’re kind of showing earlier, I would look at that area as another area of massive fuckery as well. So patients here is gonna be a little bit of a virtue as it as we can. Trading is rather annoying to deal with. Typically speaking, at least for myself, you know me, I’m sure some people out there love it and you know more power to you. I hope that you’re making as much money as fucking possible. And I sincerely mean that. I really sincerely mean that because well, why the fuck not, man? Go do good. It’s like I fucking hate it when people say like money is bad. No. If you if you’re going to be good with money, then it’s just going to accentuate your goodness. That’s all. Just do some good things with it. Jesus Christ. Is that such a hard concept to understand? But for fuck’s sake, man, for fuck’s sake. It’s like an amplifier. You know, it’s it’s it’s it’s like it’s like it’s like beer. It’s like it’s like getting drunk. You know, if you’re an asshole, when you get drunk, you turn into a bigger asshole. If you’re that nice guy and or just even doesn’t even need to be a nice guy, but a good guy. And he gets drunk. He’s just, you know, happy and given hugs people. Rogers does that even more. You know, it’s just like that amount. It’s an amplifier as far as I’m concerned. OK. Another stupid rant that I’m getting off of. I’m getting off a chart on here. Sorry about that. I apologize. You don’t want to hear about that. You wanna hear more about price action. And I think now is a good time to go check in on traditional markets. We spoke about this yesterday. That tradition marks where the best case for bitcoin kind of going to the upside here. And let’s see, they closed yesterday. Now, we did come down. We spoke about this during the twitch stream yesterday, that we are likely to come down actually exactly to this level. Eighty seven thirty ish region did bounce from there. And I do think that we are going to open up next week, probably retest in the high. But is the momentum waning on this on this right now? I think so, yes. I think I think that we actually are going be putting in a local top here for the short and medium term and possibly come back down into this region somewhere right around the eighty four is low. Eighty four, as I’d say, maybe, maybe maybe upper eighty threes sometime in next week. So I do think that again to kind of like synthesize those thoughts down, look at us looking especially at Nasdaq futures which I think are running this market, you know, and again, just going from level to level. This is just beautiful right here. Fucking beautiful. Gotta love it, man. Gotta fucking love it. The simplicity of this. Sometimes we did say that we were likely to hit around eighty nine hundred. We got up to eighty nine fifty. That’s fine. And then I said likely a short term and medium term reversal. I think that’s what we’re gonna get coming into next week, although next week should open up around around yesterday Friday’s high. Looking at many futures probably be about the same thing actually still within the context of this rising wedge. Sounds familiar now, doesn’t it? And also a very precarious place as well, because not only are we in a redistribution pattern, but volume signature is is is confirming that. And we do see that we’re kind of at the prep’s the precipice of a major change in behavior here, too, because the longer that it stays above the 55, the screen moving average, the you know, the more and more likely it will unfuck this death cross. But if the death cross does want to play out, this would be a damn good place to reverse from. And if we do break down below, I mean, even just even us, Friday’s low would probably do it for me. Confirming that as reversal, I look for a measured move to be initiated. Somewhere down around here, somewhere down it down back into like the twenty five twenty five to twenty six hundred range which is going to correlate with like 255 to 60 ish region on spot price action. And we’ll come back and reassess after that. By the same token, to the upside, if this thing makes another leg of the upside, we’re gonna see three ton great to see like three or five A310 is going to and everyone’s gonna get very, very happy and very, very bullish. And that would be another good place for, you know, for a massive meltdown. The only thing that really concerns me about tradition marks right now is that everyone, everyone, their mother thinks that they’re good being the genius, thinking like, fuck, I watched that movie called what was it called? The Big Short. And you know what? I know exactly what’s going on. It’s gonna be right now we’re gonna be going to zero this. Things sucked and maybe it is. But you’re not alone in thinking that you’re not the fucking only person thinking that that is the majority of the market right now. So that, you know, that’s the other thing making me think that ad. Do we have another move back, if you like? Three 310 first? Probably, yeah. It’s certainly not other question, but. But, hey, if we take out Friday is low, then yeah, I will look for for for that house of cards crumble it a bit more. But for right now, I’d say caution against the wind. Let’s go check out the other market leaders. Mr. Beautiful. And this is like wine, Mr. β, all actually breaking the long term downtrend, it looks like if you are gonna be using this as a long term downtrend. Some like that. Bitcoin nowhere near actually breaking that same level. We can go back on over here and look at it. In fact, what you know, this level even correlates directly with holy shit that Bluebox of destiny, perhaps perhaps destiny. You are looking at as such. Oh, also that and with the top three reasons. So this baby as well. So strange, right. And I’m sure I’m sure people are going to be like. But Crown. Don’t you know this one right here too? Yes, I know about this one right here, too. It’s all good. I don’t really trust diagonals that much. Yea, I know. At least not not enough to trade, but it is funded to an analysis size on. But you know, going back down to lower timeframes here, I didn’t get to talk about this. This is relevant as well. We do see. To quote my fucking hate for a diagnose, we do actually see that there is something resembling a falling channel here which typically does break out to the upside. If we did make a measured move on this, it is a little bit funny that we would actually see the measure move correlate. Actually nowhere near what the fuck that’s that’s cause is getting the bottom of the of the order block right here. So I’m doing a more aggressive read on this. Looking at the liquid zone, if I were looking at the order block it would say about 70 100, which would be the bottom side of this. It’s all within range that write them. It depends where we break out from, too. So, you know, if you know, if we were to break out from this region right here. It’d be obviously higher anyways. Enough of that. Jesus fucking Christ, man. To me, it’s pretty damn simple for even even like a four hour delay closure about sunny 130. Very, very likely we will toss up this region of the cup on a bux higher. That’s where things actually can change for the macro. But I don’t think. I don’t think that that’s what’s happening to be actually directly clear and deliberately clear maybe. But again, I know my opinions not necessary for that to the downside. A little to the downside. Actually, a lot more easy, but live more diabolical. Any any four hour delay, closure, blow 64 50. And I do believe that this that this will play out as a whole. As you know, as an efficacious death cross, we will very likely come down to this region right here, 6, 7, 50 tests their pride, pride to another anemic bounce. But I do believe that that bounce would be sold into. And then we will likely come down into the mid 5 thousands. So things are kind of shifting around here. And I think it’s also still relevant to talk about this. It’s not going to be so much of a shorter video now, is it, to be so much of a shorter video? Anyways, um, um. Looking at the two day, we can just quickly go through this as well. You know, the two day duel to Death Cross? I do. Again, I do think that day to day till Death Cross is still very much relevant. And I do think that it could still very much play out, as we do see a very similar signature to here to what we seen in the past in both in both instances. Now, the third one kind of formally in front of our very eyes. So this could be a trend if it does play out. But this one about over here, green and purple, fit five and 200. Crossman downside. Slowly but surely, it’s round now below the 21, although it does have the 55 along the way. And that is a that is a hallmark of the last pass crosses. And then boom, massive move. The downside, 50 percent. You already know from 6000 basically to 3000 times before that was running over here in 2014/2015 at this price point. Price action very far away from front from the cross itself, which I think is kind of a it’s kind of similar. What we’re doing right now to Bitcoin gets another test back up to the 55, although after that gets quickly rejected. And once it’s back down below the 21, that’s when the inevitable downside does play out. So what I’m looking at right here is, is same thing as a daily eye. You know, I look at this as overall bearish. As long as you’re below the death cross moving averages, which are where they’re conveniently right at that fucking over $7000 a number, right around seventeen hundred if you wanna get super exact. But. But I don’t play to the downside as long as we are above the 20 1 expense to an average on especially a closing basis. And we will be closing this 2 day doled out now. Not tonight, tomorrow night, tomorrow night at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. So it’s gonna be a long day, I suppose. But if we do get another test up to the 55, as we have in the past couple instances, I’d say that that would be pretty, pretty stock standard. And it also would be in line with even the short term ranges as that was really such change things around. So I feel like I’ve missed quite a few things on this video. But again, I feel like this past week’s videos have been more or less on topic for that anyways. And realistically, I’m looking at this price session right here, especially on a weekend when it’s kind of flagging now is probably going to, you know, like likely to be trampy. Just higher higher degree, higher degree of crappiness behavior on a weekend. We can go quickly, check out the probability ranges right over here and can actually look at this a little bit differently as well. If we won’t actually do some ring analysis, which should we can we can do future bars. Yeah. If I do it on. Future buys, it should actually do better with the with the with the slopes of these babies, and right now they’re both squeezing on each other. The downsides are side the upside, the site, the ones to the bottom side, which are squeezing the upside, the slope on. That’s a little bit more a little bit more impressive, a little bit more a little bit more direct. Not too crazy. Maybe it’s just my eyes kind of making that up, Knight. I do think I do things with a bit more study them. So technically speaking, it would be a little bit more angled to the upside. However, what I really want to be looking at is the probabilities of the range that we’re looking at. As of the current moment in time and by the way, current, if I use current, it actually does push down a little bit more I think is going to turn into a little bit of a fake out. So Sunny, 350 is still the relevant air to the upside. I would say seventy six to seven hundred. The downs in a more conservative estimate, more aggressive. Seventy six. Seven fifty. And what do we see? Actually, the range is for both relatively small in comparison limit. Just make sure you do have my settings right. I believe and above target probability. Seventeen and a half percent on today’s Daily Dose closure. So it you know, it certainly is possible. It’s bet it’s better than one standard deviation, however. Say it’s what is within one’s own deviation. It looks like just right there. I think that’s a half one on the grey. So that so so as you put them in perspective, that actually is rather high, 14 and a quarter percent to the downside. Again, still within the realm of possibility. But realistically, we have more that y what’s our inside probability is going to be. Well, the difference between those, which is about 68 and a quarter, that we’re just gonna be Ossana between 60, 70, 350 to the upside and sixty seven 50 to the downside, which I think is most likely here, especially on a weekend. I think that we’re progam to test sides of the ranges on the short term. But do we get an actual break on the short term. Well a break of the week’s trend. In this case would be what would be continuation of the downside, not to the upside as this is still a four hour downtrend. As it stands, can very easily revert itself here, but as it stands, it technically is that way. So I think this 50th priority way too long. Porges for that I thought is give me a shorter video. Apparently not. Do you like how the 4 hour turn and simples gonna start to align with the Bluebox A piece in Destiny? To the downside right here. If we do drone on a little bit longer, that should be happening by tomorrow. I do believe unless things just Apsley shatter before end of day today, which I think is a little bit unlikely. I think that we’re perogative to wait until tomorrow for like, you know, a nice move and then we should resolve the range either. Sorry, and I’m not talking about the short term range. Which guy and this guy, but rather the medium term range. This guy over here, sunny, 350 and 6, 750. The downside, I think that we’re gonna be resolving that early this next week. Very, very likely. Quickly, we can look at like the troll and your bands to see if we can come up with any sort of other biases trolling you. What? Actually actually showing some more inherent bullishness here. I did have a fake up to the downside right here, and that usually isn’t that usually is pretty damn good. And what what, you know, wears the tops out of the trolley bands on a daily S300 fucking obviously will quickly look at the MacDonalds as well and see what that one’s showing. See, what do you what do you got for me today. Could it be. Could it be that we’re just gonna be putting another set of bearish divergence here on them on the histogram. Maybe. But that’s that’s fucking crystal ball bullshit which I need to call my shell self out on on a really. And that also imply that we’re gonna get higher has some price action too. So could we move up here and put another set of devant there. Yeah, could be. So there you go. I’m not really getting too much else off the other than that the the only way that I really get some off this is if is if we come down below the zero, read again and cross the downside which we’re not doing right now and that’s not going to happen. Very unlikely to happen today. In fact, so you know what I’d like to see on the Mac? He is like an obvious signal. I’d like to see like a medium term timeframe range broken. So 6 700 in this region. In this case would be great. Plus that crossing back down below the zero read. That would be damn good for some some inherent downside back down below 6000 into like the mid 5000 probably to the upside, a little bit more difficult. I actually think that the shorter term time from the reps and in that a little bit more accurately, a little bit more easily. Right here. So other than that, really not very much has changed from USA to today. Bitcoin’s flagging now and improving its bullish chances. I think a little bit more, but I’d keep an eye on this because when these when these guys start to kiss, if if there’s gonna be a trap, I’d look for it somewhere right around there. Anyways, that’s gonna do it for right now. I’m not gonna be trading today. I will be on Twitch later, say for a long, long, long, long time. In fact, I’m debating just not eating and just playing all day. So so we can maybe see some moves together. Other than that, I want to wish you well once again. Take care and add until next time.


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