Bitcoin IM BULLISH! April 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis


I’m bullish me into my saddle, my son and my son. Let me let me see. Let me go to my side. Let me. Yeah. April Fools. How clever. How creative. Jesus Christ, man. Sorry about that. But you know, what about having three cups of coffee in the morning? Again, a little bit of bad news from the doctor. Well, why not have a little bit of a laugh on April Fool’s? Anyway, I want to wish everyone well on this nice Tuesday or Thursday. No, it’s. Oh, it’s Wednesday, actually. It’s Wednesday. Hey, happy. Have a happy 1/0 life. Wish you a happy Wednesday from actually a kind of bright and bright and sunny Helsinki, Finland, albeit cold as fuck. It will be snowing here relatively soon is what I hear as well. So plenty to talk about on that as we do have plenty to talk about on price action as well. The monthly clothes and also I believe a couple other times higher time frames causes as well. Really set in a long term bias here. So we have much to discuss their fault from yesit’s analysis and really focus on the higher term time frame stay. So with all of that said, I would like to wish you the best, the best and perhaps the happiest because I’ve been doing that for a while. Sorry, my bad. It is more important do that than really anything else, because why the fuck not, man? It probably helps. Or at least it doesn’t hurt anyways. More importantly, let’s go check about the Crown training application which can be found at Abdol Crown traini dot net. It’s free. Go take advantage of it. It is when I’m sent for you. So anyways. Well, also for me as well. I actually use scorches. We made it. In fact, I found that’s the best way to just go about life. Make stuff that you’re actually going to use and then other people might find it valuable as well. Anyways, once again, putting the big focus on the open interest for the global derivatives, we see open interest going up about $34 40 since yes, since we last spoke yesterday for about five hundred seventy five hundred eighty to six hundred, 620 million. As it is right now. And also seen that the bitcoin dominates. I go now more or less flat. Not really saying anything there. The crypto fear and Greed Index also more or less flat as well, albeit pretty damn low in the in the low teens right now. But then that the big focus is here on the open interests. We’re gonna Tientsin to the analysis once again. And my god man, this has really been a big missing piece for I feel like myself looking at open interest. But now that we finally been able to track this over time, we have a number and we’re gonna be having a chart coming soon. I’ve been getting a lot of questions on when the chart comes. Oh there. Which is another million added. What could it be? Oh, it’s all sales coming in right through here. Beautiful tie, but more importantly, we’re working on it. It’s gonna be in the next update. But due to, well, the whole world situation, everything. Some of the updates have been pushed back a little bit just because well, it’s you know, there’s a whole global pandemic going on right now. So with regards to that open interest going up, price action. Well, let’s go see. Let’s go see what happened over here. Definitely went up. Right. Right. Right. Fuck, God damn it, man. Price action going down again. We see open interest going up, price action going down, volume having a little bit of a spike spike here. But we’re still caught in the context of the greater formations. So if what we need low term time frame is actually go back up here to the daily. And what do we know? The daily is still being held below the yellow 21 Ispent for average. Now, I just want to do a very small aside right here. This is incredibly similar to what we’re seeing on interest marks right here from a daily closing bases. We see a death cross. We see the 20 month extension on average so far rejecting price action. And this is consistent with all major all major markets. We see Japan riding over here. Same thing happened. Continuation. Oh, could that mean something? We see Germany doing about the same thing yesterday, still being rejected. But, well, I wouldn’t necessarily call this rejection, but still being held below below the 21. And with Japan kind of leading the way right now, I do believe that Bitcoin is a likely setting up for a relatively similar move. Probably put them back down below the six thousand dollar region. I see a lot of very bullish people in this market. I see a lot of very bearish people as well. So it is interesting because I do feel like our reads on sentiment in this community are probably not very consistent with the general sentiment of the market. But I do try to I do try to do my rounds of crypto Twitter and crypto YouTube just kind of kept catch up and does seem to me that most people are still kind of looking at this as likely to go back up to 8000 anyways. More importantly than that, we need to focus on the tangible things, not the intangible like bullshit that well, everyone’s book. It’s like who’s everyone in? And if and if everyone’s bullish and you’re in, you’re in, you’re the only bearish one. Then what does that even mean? I mean, I don’t know. Managers. It seems like an ego thing to me anyways, but it is it is insane nonetheless. Anyways, looking at this right here, I still stick with with with what I’ve been saying for the last few days or the last like week or so, that as long as you’re below the 21, I’ve been to an average special on an open and closed basis, but even on just a closing basis as well. I am I’m not bullish here and there’s no April Fool’s about this. I am looking at this as more or less a problem, but most likely come back down. Looking at the way that the monthy closed Miss Day Night, I do believe that we closed well below the 20 next month on average, as that’s all the way at Sony 300 ish region and hold up. Jesus Christ, man. Looks like there’s some weird things going on like Peter right over there. But more importantly, we do see that we have actually crashed or not crash, but a crack down below the 20 minutes Benjamin was on a confirmed month closing basis. So let’s. I once spend a lot of time here on the monthly, as is what say so first and foremost, as long as we are below the monthy 21 expensive inhabitants, yellow moon damage right here from a long term basis, I am not bullish at all whatsoever. In fact, the better term would be bearish. I’m looking for more downside. You can see that in Bitcoin’s history, especially go to be Aleksa next. The longest running exchange or their longest running price action is an exchange, obviously, but a trend that we’ve broken below the 20 minutes to an average. Well, that’s been deathand a K for bitcoin back over here in 2014 2015. More recently in twenty eighteen, twenty nineteen. And now we have it yet again in twenty. So this is something that I use in traditional markets when I was a market maker, authorized trade on the floor of AKA which I would judge a stock if it was generally bullish or gently bearish over the long term. If it’s above the 21 gently bullish blow, generally bearish works were works better with more mature assets. But now that Bitcoin’s, you know, a little bit over 10 years old, I think that it has just enough time on it for this to work. And more importantly, we have a series of efficacious signals given frontin from it. So my general my general view for the long term is I am not bullish at all whatsoever on bitcoin price action. As long as we are below that region, especially on a monthly closing basis, doesn’t mean that we can’t come back up and test it. In fact, I think that that is that that that could very easily happen now, too. But I would probably be looking at that as likely an opportunity for a counter-trend position or sorry kind of position to that move. More importantly, I think that we can now say that it would be very, very, very, very, very unlikely for Bitcoin market to be back up to 8000 or above 8000 in this, at least in the six month price action. And when we look at so much Mazur’s, which actually it’s look at the new ones right here, because down one has an updated just yet. We do see monthy stokes nosediving and more importantly, gaining momentum to the downside ratio right over here to getting reject from the bullsh controls on. Don’t like that. It’s check out monthly RSI. This one also problematic, but we didn’t actually take as big of a nosedive as I would expected here. So more importantly with the month, the RSI, well, it’s generally not a strong read or anything like that. We are still below the expansion. That exponential is working its way down to the neutral zone, although still gonna take a few months to get to get there, actually. But more importantly, if we if if we actually do test around the Barasch controls on, once again, my big fear here is that we bounce on this one, two, three, four times the fifth time and and in each subsequent try after that gets weaker and weaker. And the problem with this is, is that while we’re on the fifth time now, if we do actually come back down and test it. So if Bitcoin does break to the break to the south side, let’s call it below 5000. Now, that will likely bring monthly RSI below the bearish controls on. And I do believe that if that were to happen again, we’d very likely spend some time in there like prolonged time. We’ve we’ve had too many warm welcomes and and rejections from that region thus far. That really, really concerns me from a long term perspective. Again, if we do get back down around there. But as you know, as it is right now, it’s not necessarily there. But with the way that all well, with the way that the monthly trend is quite literally down, we literally have a monthly downtrend. We have high, low or high, low, low or high. And well, while we haven’t necessarily made a lower low just yet, I suppose that’s the game that we get to play this month. Are we setting in a higher low or a lower low if we set in a lower low, obviously below 30, 300. We are in for our first monthly are for well, not not a first monthly downturn, but a likely a very long downtrend. And that’s at the point where I’d say Bitcoin probably not can be talking about popping back up to the 5 digits, at least for a few years. So, you know, still there is a little bit of hope and left for the long term. Just don’t want to see a monthly close below our last major low right here at about thirty three hundred thirty five hundred depending upon where you’re kind of measuring it from. But but you know, that gives us the big bad range right here. We’re currently trading about, you know, 2x from that region anyways. Also, the monthly rounds of the accumulation dissipation indicated the net delta indicator. Once again, we are still maintaining this negative slope and the slope of this indicator has accurately gone in pretty much all of the market cycles in Bitcoin’s history. Pretty damn right. So with this remaining negative or is or what I should say, it’s just a downward slope is also, of course not good. But as we’ve seen in the past, you know you know, do we have sharp, sharp turns every once in a while? Yes, we do. But there should be adequate warning before the next major low is put in to put this in perspective. The last time that we had a slope change, will, you know, obviously we got the one to the downside right here in January. But I just want to show that when the slope changes, we typically spend at least one month within that range still and then turn around. So so it needs a slope change. And then next month, continuation boom. There you have a long term reversal. You know, you know, as of recently, what we saw in January 20. But what I really want to focus on here is actually the last major low that we put in in January twenty nineteen at about thirty one hundred ish region right here. So the slope changes from January to February and then it just floats way back upwards and onwards. The reason why that is, is it’s significant here is because again it gives you a little bit of time, you know, while that changes around. And the obvious, you know, obviously the general trend fall is to massively to the upside soon after that. So, you know, even even with a little bit of patience here and not getting in at the exact low at thirty three hundred, but getting in maybe a little bit higher at about thirty nine hundred, this region, which I think is pretty damn reasonable, the hopes not soon after that we do see a move all the way up to about 10000 or more really like 14000 bucks. So I just want to show that, you know, long term this is a slow moving freight train. But once it gets going, you know that, you know, those are the fun times. So could that happen here? Yes, it could happen. Could we you know, could we see a slope change on the next one, perhaps? Yes. But even then, I wouldn’t just jump right in, because as we did say, you know, it’s going to it’s going to likely take some time to reverse itself. Now, we do have a trend line forming here, to be fair. How do you know how? You know, just to touch to make a trend. No, it does not. But if we do see this next touch, actually, it’s actually turned around the slope coming in to what’s the month after April, May, June. Now, May, May. It’s May. I think it’s May, at least, anyway. It doesn’t matter what month it is just the next month after whatever fucking month that we’re in right now. Since this one doesn’t matter either, time is an arbitrary concept. If we do see this turn back around, then that should be a good signal as well. But for right now, and at least for the foreseeable future, I am overall bearish and I have no real reason be bullish on this price action. I understand that people do want to be a bulls out there and more power to you, but for the traders out there. Well, that is a monthly, obviously not the most bullish look. And then we come back down to the two day, which is, you know, which is which I do consider a higher timeframe on bitcoin. And what do we see here? The same sort of death cross that we’ve been looking at for the last the last few ticks. And what, you know, we just got another tick confirmed, I believe, yesterday. Let me just confirm. Yes. Actually, no, sorry, it did. This was a day before. But we will be confirming this next tick tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. And again, same thing here as well. We can recap rally all the way back up to the 21 X Benjamin average chest around Sony 50ish region. I think that that would be completely fine even. But I’m still bearish as long as we’re below the yellow 20 Max Benjamin average. And more importantly, we have the death cross, which is now starting to get a little bit of divergence away from each other on those two major move, never just right there. So what does that mean, long term? Well, long term, we have a very good relationship between the death cross moving averages and then and then essentially the 2010 expense. We haven’t you could say to a lesser extent the 10 simple, but. Well, we’ll kind of avoid that topic for right now, just for ease of conversation. Anyways, anytime that we’ve got the Death Cross or the Golden Cross and then price action gets on the same side as a 21 as that cross, that’s when we have big bad moves back on over here. We do see that we got the Golden Cross doing this consolidation about 7000 bucks. Bitcoin comes back down, tests 21. Nice, nice buy right there. A couple of times actually. Right here, right here, right here. And then a 2x 2p from seven thousand to fourteen thousand assuming that you bought on that region back in twenty eighteen very somewhere. Very some other Asian ship. Right. And over here as well gets a death cross late in September or late in 2018. Then we slowly but surely get ground down below the yellow. Twenty one expense for average. Now here’s the thing. Now we do get a couple of closes above, but it’s about on an open and closing basis. So you see that there’s no opens and closes above that region. And then once it gets below the twenty one, we are trending down and we are trending down pretty fucking hard all the way from top to bottom, about 52 percent move going all the way back before that. For our next example, or obviously this one is a beautiful one, going back to 2015, going all the way from like 250 bucks to 15 big. A big number, a big number like 20000 prefs. And then 2014, we had another death cross as well. Happy. And over here do play out that trend a little bit because the cross was so far away. It wasn’t really that big of a deal. And I do think that we could have something similar like this pop back up where we do see another another shakeout or another bull trap backup to the 55 or 200. But assuming that, you know, we’re still we’re still remaining below that on a closing basis, I’d expect some like this to kind of curl back on over. And then as soon as we get back down below the 20 when I speak to an average again. Well, well, this looks familiar now doesn’t hey. No, it doesn’t, because I don’t have my drawn two up, maybe about a nice on a closing basis, 55 percent on a week basis. Obviously a lot more than that. But I’m more in certain closing based right now. So, you know, looking at price action right here, you know, could we have another rally backed up to, you know, into the low of seven thousand? I think that’s possible. But there’s a lot of overhead resistance in its way. So I wouldn’t be looking for any sort of a major move into the $8000 region. I do think it’s possible we could have a move to 7000 bucks, but I’d look at that again as an opportunity. And this is not finished by not venture Voser. And of course, you know, when it comes to technical analysis, we are only using statistics in our favor over time. That is that is likely to to to produce a net positive result. But that does mean that every time is gonna work out. But I do like. The setup’s here and it’s good enough for me to put on risk if I do get that opportunity. Also looking at 2 a.m., much more serious we see to day. Stokes So I need to curl around a little bit. They start to get a little bit tired here as they approach the edge of the bears controls on which typically you are going to see some countertrend pressure at meshe you get rid of this right here. It’s not relevant to what we’re talking about now. And then we also have some well, actually we know we don’t have any hidden embellished evidence here or should I say continuation Everton’s. We certainly do, however, have it on the daily all the way back up to its eight thousand. No idea. So that’s gonna be in the charts as long as you know, as long as we’re below essentially like a what is this like eighty one hundred. Notes. It’s, it’s actually about seventy nine fifty ish regions. So on a daily plosive basis that’s always gonna be a consideration there. Not only that, we do see daily Stoke’s Curlin back down rejection, the bullet control zone and Gameau much to the downside. Not good. Not good at all. Also, we do see daily RSI reject from getting out the Barash controls on thusfar. Although this could this this this is probably the biggest hoping I’m right here. We do actually have an inverted head and shoulders on daily RSI and I put a lot more weight on formations in RSI than I do on price action, especially when it comes to the inverted head and should the head and shoulders variety. See? Yeah. You know, if we did break back above the neutral zone, above the 50 marker right here, I would look for this to play out. But until that happens, it still pressure down sooner rather than later. Again, that does still tie in to the higher term time frame buys. Remember that this can take a long time to play out. So, you know, if if we did play that out, I’d look for that move. Like, I don’t know. Seventy three hundred ish region, we’ll call it. And then I’d look for a quick rejection most likely as well. And then for all the higher term time frames to start to take on over again. Let’s go check out the twelve hour with a twelve hour two and twelve hour. Stoke’s actually did point north and did cross up on the last tick. However, here’s the thing. I think that this is likely to turn into a fake out. The reason why is because if we go over here to see CMBS, we see something completely different. And the CNE stokes in the CMB indicators in general have just been significantly more accurate than spot price action. And we got plenty of room here, plenty of room to the downside. And if we look at CMA charts right here, there’s some great symmetry here with coming back up, filling the gap. Couple are about a day and a half ago and thus far rejected below all major moving averages, even on a 12 hour. And, of course, on a daily as well as it stands. So if we. So so here’s how I can kind of break down a little bit. If we do take out the 30th of March as high, which was I think Monday or whatever day, it doesn’t matter, 30th March. This guy right here, about 66, 60. If we do take that out to the upside, I would look for an extension probably into those low seven thousand dollar numbers. Yes. Technically, we do have resistance right around 68 hundred ish region. So theoretically, I’d rather wait for like a, you know, a two hour or four hour deal to close above that region and then target to move towards seventy two to seventy three hundred each region. But it’s not really until we even get back above that hump. It even becomes, you know, in my immediate short term interpretation, I guess as to where that I’m going for anyways. While we are here on num-, on Sammies, we do CCMA. RSI is actually is a couple degrees more bearish than what we see on price on on spot price action. Significant hit embarrassed evidence here all the way back up to the 9th of March when again Bitcoin was around eight thousand bucks. And this chart again looks set, looks actually some of the reads more bearish than spot price action. And I do believe that Siamese are a lot more important. So again, short term price action. This can ebb and flow. Of course, we can get a nice we could get we could easily get a move up to seventy two to seventy under this region. But I I I I would look at that as an opportunity again and again. It’s not finished by some. I’m not found reviser, but I am just sharing my my exact thoughts on these situations as they come about for our looks like we’re kind of breaking down, rolling over once again for our looks like we’re probably popping back down at six thousand ish region low six thousand. And and I would kind of hold on to that idea as long as we are below sixty five fifty ish regions. So maybe now’s the time to get onto the lower term time frames. Let’s go back to let’s go back a bit Mexico. Mexico is kind of tipping over as well. What could this be. Momentum losing to the downside. Oh and is this the same trouble that we had plotted against already have it in there? Is this the same trend line that we have plotted out yesterday, providing the same resistance from the same last couple highs, ninetieth March 25th or 24th, March right here. And once again, on the 30th of March, I think it might just be. And I do think that this is likely going to end up back down in this. Bluebox Right here, some Bitcoin’s short Senate stint above the Bluebox Right and over here faded rather quickly. I think that this was that this cell right here was a front runner. This BLUEBOX And likely coming back down to the six thousand dollar mark, maybe been a little bit below this. Bluebox Right here. That’s where things get interesting once again. So let’s now start to start to break down the lower term time frames. Now there’s there’s a couple ways of doing this. I’m going to do this in the more conservative way because I think it’s just it’s appropriate in this region, even though I do think even though I do think you could probably. You could get aggressive traders who are going to be rewarded most likely. I didn’t say that. I didn’t say that. But Sabbar Hape, if we do take out either to last. Even the. Even taken out the last for hour low to the downside at 6 to 50, or especially for close even a two hour dollar below 60 to 50 ish region, the lower end of this. Bluebox And this is a more concerted way of doing it. I would target has moved down down around 50 950 ish region. I would look for another bounce of this guy. But remember, that is the lower bound that is that is actually gonna be below the lower bound of this rising channel support that we’ve been playing off of ever since our low riding over here on the 12th of March, which, by the way, doesn’t look right on a on a 4 hour. But we’ll look proper on a 2 hour right here. And for all the multiples of that siete, you know, if you know, if we do come back down, obviously to about 60, 150, we have another short term time frame bounce. Yes. Maybe I I don’t have a strong opinion on that. But I do think my strong opinions I’ll just be a short term time frame bounce as long as long as you remain below above 6, RSI below 60, 350. You know, I’d still I’d still say that that’s pressure down. And we’re likely to break this rising trend line right here as we come down to the next major blue bought or not even Major Bluebox, but like a medium time from relevant Bluebox again in the 59, we’ll just call it fifty nine hundred this region if, if and when we do break this one. I would look for a nice shouter in a price action all the way back down to fifty five hundred. Just reading. That’s going to be the weekly tour and it’s simple moving average, which probably does bounce it again as as indicated by this nice blue box. And it’s only because of the blue box at a bounce is not because of any other reason. No, of course not. This is this is not hocus pocus bullshit. It’s, um. It’s it’s while it’s. It’s just a nice area that generally people are gonna be betting on because of the nature of the tune. It’s simple on a weekly a lot of lotto, you know, a lot of the higher term time frame traders are just gonna have their balls now get set to buy it. But seeing as we haven’t haven’t necessarily broken this trend line just yet, initiated the measure moved from this rising channel, I would proverbially put it around where it could break if it does happen today. And that would still be pointing us down towards a little bit higher than before, but about 40 to 50 ish region on new lows. That would be interesting to me, though, and I do think that there’d be bounces along the way, perhaps universe it vs. along the way. But I’d be looking at this area right here, 55, I’d look at this area right here, 51, and I’d look at this area right here at 48, 14:00. And then and then assuming that those that that all those bounce temps fail, I would look for a full on return all the way back down here to 40 to 50. Why is that relevant? Well, because if we were to come all the way back down there, we likely would be creating bullish evidence on the daily by that point as the daily RSI got. So damn, I’m actually didn’t get mean. It got it got pretty low, to be fair, but it didn’t get into single digits, which very I don’t even think we’ve even seen or may. Maybe we have like a few times in Bitcoin’s history. Yeah, we did actually over here. This was November 2008. One of the most intense moves to the downside that we’ve seen in this baby anyways. So as it stands, you know, this right here to me is like your classic fuckin vertical move in a bear market usually going to be a usually gonna be a short squeeze. And I think that that’s what we’re seeing right here. The question to me, you know, D. The question that I’m deliberating on right now is do we get it? Do we get another move up to 70, 300, this region in tests there? Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t. A strong opinion on that. I’ll leave a strong opinion if we break sixty eight hundred the upside, then we probably will get it. But I still look at it, you know, adds it as an opportunity. This is just this is like fucking picture perfect actually. Volume tailing off. We saw open interest go down the whole way as bitcoin hit that area from like 1.5 billion with a B to a little bit over 600 million now. And as price actually moves down from yesterday to today and all the moves down that we’ve seen, first thing that open interest go up. So that is just showing us that bears are where were were close their shorts, which likely caused this this rise right here. So a little bit of a short squeeze on top of that for the overleveraged late traders, late to the trade traders. And now we know as bears put back on their positions, once again, they are they are in full control and they are running things. And I fear that this is going to take a long time for the bitcoin holders out there, but doesn’t matter for Hotaling for life, because while it doesn’t, it doesn’t matter anyways, because, like, you’re just gonna hold onto it till death. You’re not gonna. Are you just gonna look at pics on your screen and stroke it? I don’t know. I don’t know. Anyways, I don’t understand that perspective. But if you are that person, if you are that person who is who who is hashtag Hoddle till I die, I’m curious to know why. Why? What’s what’s the purpose of that? If you’re not going to use it. And I sincerely mean that I’m not I’m not trying to be. What’s the word I’m looking for patronising or any or anything? I’m genuinely curious. What’s the allure to that sort of position or is there any sort of or is there any thought process behind it? I’m curious anyways. More importantly, if we do get them move back down to 40 to an honest region, then at that point we likely will be making some bullish evidence on the daily. Why is that significant? Well, because Bitcoin’s never bottomed ever, ever, ever, ever on a major macro market cycle or even a major move without having bullish evidence on, at the very least, a daily dollar timeframe. To put this in perspective, even on this major move right here. Markets like a low, but a major move nonetheless. Multi-thousand move, 4000 or move to be exact. We had pretty massive bullish evidence off the off the six six hundred number right here. We had three drives out here before 3000. Our move bearish divergence on the top right here. It works both ways and three drives a bullish divergence in 2018, 2019 on this. Thirty one hundred low for here. Several examples in twenty eighteen on all these failed rally attempts and we can go all the way back as well. But I would we’ve done this too many fucking times already now for the newer people here. Well that there’s a long term analysis video in it. Sorry. In the long term analysis playlist that you’re more than welcome to TiVo anyways. Okay. All righty. So what else do we want to look at? This video is already been twenty five minutes long. How does that even happen? I don’t know. But let’s go back down to lower term time frames and let’s start to look at probabilities with regards to these ranges. Let’s let’s keep in mind the range is once again. So here today’s a little bit of a different day, right? Because technically speaking, I have this blue box as the next medium time frame actionable point as well as this blue box to the upside, which has remained consistent at sixty eight hundred. I do, however, think that it would be you probably could be could be aggressive if bitcoin were to break sixty one hundred ish region or above the 30th of March is high at about sixty six fifty we’ll call it. So we’ll look at the probabilities of all these for the lower term time frames. But keep in mind that it’s really this guy right here and technically this guy right here that are the big ones. Then on the outside peripheries for the higher term time frames. Seventy three hundred region. And then of course, fifty five hunters can be our next major area to the downside, although. Well, I’d be skeptical of that one, too. Anyways, let’s just look at the probabilities as they are as this dance. And this is on a daily, by the way. This is on a daily. So we do see that the first tend to be Asian is coming in right around 60, 750 to the upside and sixty and fifty nine hundred to the downside. So that pretty much accurately gets those actionable points to begin with. I’m saying sixty eight hundred of the upside. So be a little bit outside the topside range and I’m saying fifty nine hundred. The downsides, I’ll be right on the edge of that precipice. So it’d be about a 16 percent chance of actually do close below the bottom trigger point for today. Now remember that Borton trigger point is a little bit more of a conservative estimate. I do think that you could accurately put that at 60 100 and probably be right anyways, giving you a twenty dollar leg up on that move. So that’s obviously gonna be well within those probabilities. If I had to do some mental math that I imagine it’s like twenty five percent, you know, which is which is which is high which, which is quite high by the same token to the upside it’s gonna be a little bit less than 16. It’s going to be more like less than 14, 13 percent if I had to guess. But we can actually do this exact as it is. So with regards to that, let’s go check him out. What’s. I think I’m on the wrong one, actually. Right now. Yep. Okay. All right. Where where are my panels go? Hey, where are my panels? I just. I must I must have ticked something off because I was just looking at this earlier. Perhaps perhaps this right here. Yeah. Should be right here at least. Yeah. We can do some some single sided targets. All right. So let’s check out this. Let’s check out this. And then where’s my goddamn panel? Where’s my panels? Whereas my panels. Let’s go to the downside I’m going to do. I’m gonna do six thousand. Just kind of like cut those two major areas to the to the middle. And let’s see, where is where the fuck is. Most definitely, sir. Sir, it should be here. I don’t I don’t have this. Mm hmm. It actually shows the probability, right, that that’s kind of cool. OK. I thought I thought that we’d have another pain there, but that’s OK. Yeah. Baldies actually been working on this quite a bit. So it is pretty damn cool to see. Anyways, it would suggest about no, that can’t that can’t be right because I’ll be a 4 percent four-person chancellery. And to the downside, after actually checking with him because for whatever reason we were just speaking before this video and it looks like my probability panel disappeared. Where? Hold on. It should show the it should show the position here. We got negative 40 and 100. Mm hmm. We’ll see what this one is and we’ll just put it right next to it. It’s a negative 10 and one. OK. So maybe if we do like negative 20, get a little bit close, then see if this works. Yeah. There it is. Oh, man. All right. Nice one anyways. OK. There we go. OK. And that makes a lot more sense. 30 if we do use six thousand our level at as kind of a mark to the middle for the downside, 30 percent chance. And this is by dates and clothes for the upside. I would still stick with 68 just because, you know, trend is against it right now. And bias is to the downside. So I’d rather be more conservative even though probably 66 50 does get it. But so let’s see here to the upside 60. Hold on. That can’t be right. Sixty eight. It’s using. Was it using a range? No. It should not be used in range. Yeah. It’s using single side right now. Just says that. OK, cool. That probably actually does not make sense. So I’m going to talk to Bolly again because I think I’m using the wrong inputs here. Should be on on on current time is 1. Okay. Prive little bit of talking to do. But maybe we could use a different R.F.. OK. I will arrive to prompt a wait for this one. But you know, we can still kind of eyeball it anyways just because the tops of the first aviation is coming in at sixty seven fifty. It’s gonna be less than a 60 percent chance, so probably around 13 percent anyways for the upside. So interesting off to kind of talk that one out. Let me just make sure that yeah. That that would not make sense. Or maybe I’m looking at the wrong numbers here. No I don’t think so. Well I’ll figure this one out anyways anyways. OK, cool. So with that in mind, I do still think, you know, just just generically looking at that. It does look to me like we probably are angled for the downside here again, from a called probability standpoint and just offs from an underlying market dynamic standpoint, also from a structure standpoint. Also just from I again, I this is a very familiar move that we see quite often in Bear, you know, in these failed bear market rally. It’s just a very vertical move up and then momentum wanes anyways. Is this a good time to go? Let’s actually go check out CMBS right now as well. Here’s if there’s anything other else different on this. We’ll see how the money looks on this one. Obviously, the month looks like absolute dog shit, not the picture of health and fitness there now is it? Let’s go check out a two day to day. Still be held below the 10 simple looks like downwards pressure to me. And we could also use that as an actionable point as well. As long as the two day is below the 10 simple, I would not look for that next. That next shakeout to the upside. The next squeeze. The upside. Now, if we do close above the 10 simple Cixi, it’s basically at sixty five fifty sixty six six hundredths region. Then I would look for a retest of the twenty one. All the way. All the way. Currently it’s at around twenty five point eight, but I would match that about the time that actually does happen should be down around the seventy three candidates region. Now more importantly Death Cross is, is it’s actually technically not confirmed broadened over here just yet, but it is in the works, although I wouldn’t necessarily trust the CMC moving averages on this heibel time frame just yet as it’s too new. It’s neat. It needs a couple more years of price action. I mean realistically, we haven’t even had the 200X measurement average here for too long. As you can see, just started in June. Twenty nineteen. But of course GAPPAH Gap boys rejoice because your gap’s going to be filled perhaps. And I’ll le I’ll leave that for the long term analysis fed video for right now. I think that that kind of accurately covers up all that I want to say in the lower term time frames looking at for our right here we have the same sort of trend line as you can imagine as well. I do believe that we’re seeing this aggressively turn down once again. Let’s go check. Ouch. Let’s go check out some of the other market leaders. Just just make sure that the market more or less agrees with itself. Beautiful. Certainly a degree, a degree, a degree more week as we do see this one just kind of floating aimlessly sideways, did not get the same sort of upward move that Bitcoin did. If this one does have another move, the upside, I’ll be looking for a move towards 1:43 in a quarter. But I think I think that they’ll likely still be a major opportunity. Well, much more so is turning down as price action fails to even get out of the neutral zone and is essentially hugging onto the lows. So that’s a. That looks like a Barasch reset to me. Same thing with daily RSI. This is not again. Or do we have an embarrassed evidence here? Just barely. Just barely. Attentively as president, but but just barely. If we take out yesterday’s low, then it will be confirmed, which is 130, spot 6:03. Perhaps press worth putting an alert there. In fact, I will add. Fuck it, I want you. But if that does happen, I’d look for a move back down to like 1:22 region. What about Mrs like win? How she doing as she’s about the same as β all. Maybe a little bit stronger, relatively speaking, but same thing here. Momentum also does turned down daily RSI. Do we have the same sort of potential had embarrassed divergence here? Kind of. Yes. Again, it looks like a bearish reset to me. Not not getting the same sort of strength as Bitcoin did on those last couple moves. The upside, but still hugging the lows. I mean, this is just this. This is what the chart actually looks like. Stop putting on logger minutes yet. You don’t need logarithmic scale anymore. We’ve had enough history in bitcoin. We’ve we’ve had enough history. Bitcoin now where linear scale I think is relevant, especially if you’re looking at any price action from like twenty seventeen to where we are right now. Maybe if you look at it before that prior to 2017, you might want log scale, but. But now now that Bitcoin’s been around for more than 10 years, we can use linear scale and you know, especially as the range kind of consolidates between this 3000 level and about about the ten thousand dollar level on average. OK, what else we want to look at? Let’s go look at spineless you a little more of a deep dive here. So last week I said that espied if Spike closes below the 2 and it’s simple and 200x Benjamin average, then I would not be bullish. I would be overall bearish looking for new lows. I don’t necessarily know when those new lows will come in, but I do believe that we likely will attempt to new lows and I still stick with that and I would be sticking with that, you know. Granted the same criteria as longs for closing weekly doulas, especially the one at Simple at 264 and a half. I do believe that that we’re going to come back down and test tests to 35 at the very least, and probably another small bounce there. And then and then and then we’ll kind of look it up, you know, look at it from there. But as it is right now, you know, pressure down here. Now, if we did close above the 2 an example, I’d look for a move perhaps all the way back up to like 285 region. But this is a very smart move to Bitcoin as well. Just a very vertical move off the lows. I can’t be bullish on this as long as long as even below the daily twenty one here on a closing basis, especially on an open and close basis that we have as we have seen, a couple of fake outs among the general market index indices. Well this one technically an ETF, but you know its tracks sbx. So you you already fucking know anyways. So yep. You know, I do think those one product does come back down to like five and then to 35 probably played another bounce there and then better hope that that one plays out back above 265. Otherwise new lows, maybe new lows. Same thing here as well. We’ve actually never had major lows put in without without bullish evidence. Not not at a daily but actually I believe on a weekly all mage, all all major lows have been have been put on on or actually. No, not all major lows have been put on for a for a what’s called a a weekly weekly bullish Everton’s. But market cycle lows have. Yeah. Going back to 2008 and going back to 2000, both major crashes. We do have phenomenal bullish divergence, at least two drives in some cases, three coming out of those markets. And if we go all the way back to eighty seven, which I don’t think we have enough price action history here for fuck. Yeah. If if only then I’d imagine that we proxy it there too. Not now. It make three times, but unfortunately due to the limitations of trading V we cannot see back that far. More importantly, you know, it’s still kind of holded with that. As long you know, as long as it’s working and we pay close monthly in yesterday as well and we close right below the 55. Just a just a just a dick hair below 55 on heavy volume on increasing volume, nonetheless. And is that is that indicative of capitulation there? Perhaps, yes. Per. You know you know, I mean, obviously, we saw a little bit capitulation there, but dip in our 20s, he was back into the bearish control zone of this. That means that we also closed on new lows. No, sorry, we did not close on new lows as well. Okay. This one actually could still have a chance to bottom in the 235 ish region. It’s still a possibility, I suppose, but I’m not necessarily looking forward to it. Monthly’s Stoke’s have found all of their major lows, especially for this run right here at the edge of the bear. At the edge of the bullsh controls on eversince, all that going all the way back to 2008. So I do think that we probly come back down and test that region and put in a major low on it, as we have done right here, as we’ve done right here, as we’ve done right here and as we’ve done right here. All phenomenal buys post 2008. Do we come back down to that trend line again? I think I think yes, likely. And I also think that we’ll probly bounce on that one again. Here’s the counterpoint to that. We’ll just we’ll just pretend that that didn’t happen. I don’t wanna see a fucking global financial meltdown that would really suck. What else we want to look at? Look at gold. Gold. Coming back down at 50 90, as we said yesterday, was likely not a good month close here, actually. Really not a good month close. I do think they were going to come lower overall. I do think they were going to come down to like 15, 30, maybe play out another bounce there. But I’m not I’m not bullish and I’m not bearish on this one. I am. I am. I am short term. Short term. I’m bearish here. Short term embarrassment. I do think they are going to come back down like 15, 30 ish region long term. I am neutral ish with a slight bullish twist. Twist just because of the just because of trend, but a massive long legged D-O-G double right here. I still think that this is one of the more or one of the most healthiest charts in, you know, in just the general landscape, no matter what market that you’re looking at. And again, I’m not I’m not a fan of gold. I don’t really care about gold. But it is acting as what you’d expect a hedge to act as thus far. But this this is concerning that that close, very concerning from a moment, from all sort of perspective, I GSO think that. So I would still say that more, you know, more more likely to air on the side of bullishness here than bearishness, but anywhere, anywhere below about 15 hundred. And that goes out the window, especially below fourteen seventy five. That would be a very obvious, obvious swing filler pattern. And we’re gonna come all the way back down to like thirteen hundred at that point. Jesus Christ man I when I first thought of trading I saw this thing go all the way from like eighteen hundred down to down to 10 down eleven hundred right here. I traded Gilardi. I never traded actual export gold. In fact, I want to kind of check out what it’s doing right now. How’s this one operating? Yeah. Didn’t didn’t get as favorable as a close as a spot gold. Interesting. Still interesting still. But technically a little bit a little bit of bearish divergence in play between this point right here in this point right here. That is a little bit problematic. Not by a little bit. I mean quite a bit. So that would be the bearish view on this. But this is the ETF. You do want to be looking at spot gold for actual you know, for actual direction. I do think. Anyways, arm. Where to look at Japan. We are looked at Germany. Let’s go back to Bitcoin, cover this bitch up and send them off. And then it’s twitch time baby, which I forgot to talk about earlier. I’m going to be doing twitch and we’re going to be doing the. I’m going to be going for a new all time record. The record so far is a seven is a seven hour and seven minute stream. I’m going for eight hours, baby. I’m going for eight hours. And I think that that it can be done. You’re more the moment, Jonathan. Anyways, pick one right here. Put back on these. Put it back on. The blue boxes of death indicate no peace and prosperity. April fools, go fuck yourself. Just kidding. But but you know, it’s shaking out the last for our low. Probably even does this 6 to 50 or close in a two hour delta below. Let’s call it 6 to 50 as well. I would look for a move all the way back down to six fifty nine fifty six thousand ish region. Now, the Bluebox riding over here probably does have another short term time frame bounce. However, assuming that that bounce just doesn’t get back above, let’s call it 60, 350, this region right here. I will look for that bounce get sold into and then we can play out the actual downside coming all the way back down to the mid five thousands region. By the same token, if Bitcoin were to flip back around, take out the 30th of March high on on an aggressive take on about six six fifty or especially in more conservative way, closing for our dollars back above about sixty eight hundred ish region, then I would target to move all the way up to 70, choose any 300’s region. However, I think that that would just give us another or perhaps give me another. Nice, nice trade up. Nice trade setup right there. Again, this is never fun Tobiason about French Voser but I do like a lot of things that I’m seeing the mark right now from a trading perspective. So at the end of the day to be a trader, I do think as you’re not gonna be relying on the erratic moves and swings of this asset and instead can just enjoy the volatility as that is opportunity on and off. Now, I want to wish you all I want to wish everyone here a phenomenal day. It’s been an absolute pleasure speaking with you. And this very once had a conversation once again and again, Matt. You know, I see a lot of the I see a lot of the panic with with what’s going on the world right now. I found a lot of security and insult and solace in this community and just kind of like, you know, focusing on things that we can focus on and change and keep on working towards cultivating these skills of which I’m cultivating a skill and twitch right now, which I’m really excited about, and also trading as well. Keeping that keeping that short saw swords sharp can’t speak. And and that makes for a very fun journey. So, you know, during this time, I hoped, you know, I hope that we can all come together over that anyways. Like I said, I’m droning off a little bit too long now. Take care. And until next time.


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