Is Bitcoin Set For $9,000 Before The Halving Event?


Let’s go out, everyone, my name is Nicholas Martin here, a day to dash in today’s April 17th of twenty twenty. Well, folks, I hope you all are having a fantastic day wherever you are. And in today’s video, I want to talk about a lot of different things. I want to start out by talking about the short term price action in Bitcoin and how we’ve gotten back above seven K and why still believe we’re very much on pace to go to the upper eight thousand or nine thousand dollar range going into the having event. And along with that as well. I want to talk about the emergence of stable coins, a potential major onramp for the cryptocurrency space as it comes more mainstream and tested. And along with that, talking about a lot of major data points in regards to the economy and not just in the economy, but also diving in to specific commodity markets and equity markets. OK. So we’ve got a ton of really interesting stuff to talk about. Let’s just go ahead and dive right into it. So take a look at the last 24 hours here. We can see the vast majority of cryptocurrencies are in the green, but for the most part, most are in a no trend scenario from 1 to 2 percent of the upside and downside. However, we do have some of our players doing well, energy at 6.4 6 percent, chainlink at 3.5 RIN sitting here five point two percent. So again, good play here are good day here for most of our plays here in the sense of the market. And one thing I wanted to share. You guys were quick is I’ve been speaking at a conference. It’s a virtual conference called BLOCK Down 2020. And you guys probably heard me mention it for those who watch every single video. I talked about it a few times. And yeah, it was really awesome. I gave my speech yesterday and along with that, I would be on a panel later this afternoon for the second day of the conference. And this was a really cool illustration that a company called IDEO Inc, which BLOCK Down, has doing illustrations for all the speakers. They basically illustrated in a really awesome creative fashion all of the major points that I talked about in my speech. And it was a really, really cool. I just wanted to give them props. This. I thought it was such a cool design. But just to give you guys a little bit of kind of an update on what it was about real quick, because I think it’s a very relevant topic to what we talk about here on the channel. I basically accommodated the idea that over the last ten to twelve years we hadn’t really learned much from 2008. We continue to prop up the same or similar issues that it caused the crisis. Previously we talked about excessive risk and the credit system through shadow banking. You know, basically shadow banks are banks that are less regulated. These are companies that Quicken Loans, a lot of companies. They’ve started to dominate the mortgage and lending markets along with that as well, hedge funds taking on excessive leverage. And then also this kind of failed idea that monetary policy is going to fix the underlying economy. In reality, it propped up an asset bubble and basically it transitioned into now covered, bringing all those problems to the forefront. We’ve kicked the can down the road with a lot of stimulus in the past, and that’s finally coming to roost. And now we’re getting to a point where we don’t have the same firepower like we did back in the last recession. We can’t lower interest rates as much as we want. We can print a ton of money, but it’s going to start having secondary effects on people through inflation. So what’s the best place you can park your capital when there’s mass inflation and devaluation and of course, possibly negative interest rates, which will penalize savers and those who own treasuries or other government bonds? Well, there’s basically three assets in the world that do that. Gold, silver and bitcoin. Plain and simple as a few other commodities you could probably match in there, but they’re much more driven by market forces of supply and demand. These are more of the hedges that in this case provide you a way to get out of any kind of geopolitical or national ties in this case to any specific economy, if you will. That’s the general gist of what Bitcoin offers here. And it offers an even better argument, the perfect store value in this case because of its limited supply and more specifically, its finite supply. So it was that it was really caught as one of the kind of give you guys a little bit of an update on what I talked about there. But I want to go ahead and talk about yesterday’s performance. Markets did really well. We went for about sixty six hundred up to seventy one hundred, recovering about five days worth of kind of stagnant sideways price action coming back up. And in a close back to the range we’re at now, which is where we were back a week ago. Go ahead. Just pull up the more relevant charge here in the short term. I think a big step is the one I want. Yes. Bitstamp so again, we’re getting very close to where we’re still holding these gains here. And again, I want to emphasize here that we’re continuing to set higher lows and higher highs here. Now, if the momentum really starts to stagnate sideways, I can understand it might be a sell off. But right now, guys, this is looking pretty healthy here. I like seeing this thing work, showing consistency here. The major thing that I like to look for when it comes to bitcoin, because bitcoin is a fast moving market. It is a very select few days. Where does the vast majority of price action? This is something that Tom Lee brings up a lot. It’s a very important thing to see in the market when you’re curious about whether or not the trend is gonna continue or that if we’re in kind of a short term bull phase or long term bull phase, that you’ll want to see this consecutively on a daily and weekly. And that is consecutive green candles. Basically, when you have these kind of pullbacks for a week, we can have you have two or three days where it’s made up instantly, like buyers are basically following and they’re buying it. Well, those are larger players or smaller retail buyers. Basically, you want to see those quick recovery. So here’s a good example back here. We had a pullback two days, one day and we closed on all those losses and continue climbing. Higher again. Back here about three days or we really had our price action equal amount of time or less in order to get back up and then continue higher. Right. So again, give or take or it’s never gonna be exactly perfect. But I like to see here more than anything these periods where the vast majority gains hold and then we have one or two days that just blast through. So I think we’re gonna probably get a continuation throughout today and tomorrow. But the major thing, no matter what happens here in the next 24, 48 hours, this still looks like to me that we’re gonna be probably rallying up here to test up towards the line of resistance. Or you can see here. Right. This is a long term wedge. We’ve talked about this a lot. This is where the having events going to be. We’re getting very close to it. I think you have a lot of pressure applied by said price. You have some people following in because of the having. I’ve told you guys personally, I don’t believe that’s usually like the right thing to do because we think we usually know there’s a sell off after the having event. But something we’re gonna buy anyways just to simply speculate. I don’t run the world right. I’m just one voice in this whole sea of the cryptocurrency space. Right. So some people are going to buy in anticipation for that. The second thing you have is while that actually does build some credence to this is we have China’s central bank digital currency. And again, the short window of time that we have now, it seems, before that comes out basically is a big thing that a lot of Chinese investors have to keep in mind are people who own a lot of wealth in China, because once they transition to that system, it is likely that they are never going to be able to get into Bitcoin or it’s going to have to be in some kind of system where they don’t have their sovereignty over their wealth. It’s a very, very important thing, because if their wealth is under a system that China controls, a central bank, digital currency, in this case, that is going to be very, very bad for a lot of Chinese investors who don’t want the CCP in this case to have control over their money. Right. So anyways, just wanted to emphasize that we saw some of the photos the other day leaking that. So I think this is showcasing a little bit of FOMO sheer volume overall. I mean, nothing crazy. I do like to see where we’re at right now. I’m actually using a dollar adjusted volume metric here. If we take a look here maybe at the monthly, it might become a little more clear, but volume isn’t too bad. But it’s definitely not something you extremely excited about in the bear mind. April isn’t finished. So again, we’re not going to get full on data until the end of the month. Little over halfway there. But all in all, guys, this looks like the longer term technical pattern. We were looking for a long higher lows, higher highs. Having a bet pushes price still sideways for a while. And then we played pickup NBA airplay catch up basically and start leaping forward for the next logarithmic rise into twenty twenty one, twenty twenty two. We’ll see how it all plays out guys. But again, keep focused on that long term view. I know you guys can do it, and I know that for the vast majority of people, this is going to be the best way to look at the market. Just focusing on the long term perspective. All right. So let’s go ahead and talk a little bit about stable coins, because I know a lot of you had asked me the other day about the comments that the FSP made, and we’re gonna be talking about that as well. But I just wanted to go ahead and first talk about the demand here for stable coins. So Circle CEO circles one of the two companies that created USD CE alongside Coinbase and they basically been claiming explosive demand in stable coins and actually not just for traders and a lot of other individuals and the crypto space, but also for businesses as well. And this is something, again, that I’ve really proposed here about DFI. We really need whether it’s more centralized finance or DPH, decentralized finance. We need to see a push for more loans to real world applications outside of just over collateralized margin trading or providing capital to exchanges in the short term. There’s a lot of demand there, no doubt about it. But I think we need to start seeing again this pivot here for stable coins to serve in other areas of the economy, the real world economy outside of just crypto. Right. And I think, again, this is really exciting to see. So this is a chart here. This is, again, public data. You can take a look at it, Coinbase and circle basically basically been having an explosive amount of growth for their stable point here. Right here. If I get the exact number, I want to try to get some somewhere about 40 to 60 million dollars of USD C existed. And just in the past couple of weeks with Koven 19 and the rush to inject cash here and this case in the stable corn market, basically we have it well over around 730 million. So again, you’re talking about a really nice increase here, about three a million dollars, nearly doubling the overall amount of USD C.. And I think what you SDC is they’re well audited. Their credit is graded by two of the most respectable companies in the space. You know, again, added at the end of the day, this is a really good thing to see here because of Teather did this. I wouldn’t really bat an eye too much, but what I see. USGBC and paxos and you know, Jemini USD and I see all these other stable coins doing really well. I think it speaks to a global trend here that USD CE as well as other staple coins can act as a really good bridge for institutional capital to get into crypto markets. And it’s all done regulatory and regulatory fashion. It’s done by the books and it’s somewhat two companies who I highly respect and a lot of a lot of regards. So again, keep an eye on this, guys. It is very important. Now, I know a lot of you have probably asked me already in previous video. I know I did talk about the other day. I want to talk a little bit on a few of the topics in traditional markets, but the FSB Financial Stability Board in this case, this is a organization that again focuses on regulatory regulation on a global scale. And a lot of people here were asking me about these comments, again for the G20 finance ministers about whether or not, you know, this is going to have some effect. So this is something again. Notice how the article here that put it up here is from October 2018. This has been a discussion point for a while. G20 and central bank governors have been talking about this for some time and it makes sense why they want to talk about it. Because at the end of the day, know you’ll hear all these different reasons for it. They’re going to say that there’s probably risk in regards to having these censorship resistant stable coins, because that day, basically, if I convert a dollar first David Coin and I have it in my wallet, you know, I can go around and I can use it just like a good cash. Right. And that’s kind of what a stable coin or digital dollar is. It should be that I can exchange it with someone. Right. Just second with cash. But at the end of the day, there’s there’s some concern here from the FSB and a lot of other regulatory bodies that we need to consider the other systematic risks that come with this. And I would assume at the end of the day, it’s the sheer fact that the FSB, FSB and the central bank governors and the G20, you know, individuals who are coming and meeting there probably are concern that they don’t have centralized control over it. So this has been a debate between other central banks across the world who have talked about making sentiment, digital currencies. Some have said should it be completely censorship resistant, should be completely private? Well, we don’t know who is who when they’re exchanging it. And some people said, no, we need to have an actual ledger here. We need to have a backdoor to control. You know, there’s there’s so many different perspectives, guys. And that’s again, the thing I stress, not all central banks are on the same page. We make that very, very clear. I know it’s very easy to jump the gun and say all of them are working in a COBOL together. You know, I know I understand the b.a.’s and all that. That’s very true. But there are different perspectives on how to approach this no matter what their intentions are. And I think at the end of the day, this is really at the end of the day, just surface level talks. We haven’t seen any actionable like severe policy just yet. Nor are we seeing if there is some ideas, but how they would implement it. Anything again, being implemented in the actual system for crypto. And I think, again, the confidence that we’re seeing between Circle and and Coinbase in this case again proves that success in this space. And I think that central banks, as well as the general more important part of regulators are going to allow this to continue, persist and just experiment with it for a while, because so far, stable coins like USD have provided nothing. Think the benefits idea that I can’t think of one negative that they brought. If anything, they’ve made it where people are able to digitally transfer dollars at a much faster rate than traditional systems. And honestly, the cynical part of me says that a lot of central bankers and a lot of traditional figureheads are probably hesitant first able coins. Because of that it is severely more efficient. I can send dollars from here to Japan in less than a minute on a theory about blockchain and I could do it for less than one or two cents worth of. I mean, that’s just incredible. That is huge. There are massive positive ramifications to that for remittance markets, for wire transfers, where it can cost me twenty five to forty five bucks to transfer money through a wire transfer. Can you believe that? So anyway, something that’s a fraction of that cost being going to be sent across the world. Again, very important thing to talking about here. So I’m interested to see how this develops. I have no doubt that the FSB, if it really pushed hard enough. Yeah. They could probably bend stable coins. I’m fine honestly with considering a central bank digital currency, but I want to know the properties of it. All right. I mean, if it’s going to be a dollar stable quick, that’s fine with me. That’s what I’m using when I’m using USD C. I’m just curious what they’re going to do. Because if they implement privacy and a few other features, such as the fact that they can’t seize my dollars in this case, in that case, I’m pretty excited about it. Pretty pumped. I think they’ll be really cool. And I’ll be interested to see what the Fed has to propose as well as ECB, the baggage part of the Bank of England. But I really don’t think I would trust the People’s Bank of China. Sorry for being Bidstrup. Typical. But I’ve learned too much for the piece. The BBC, but also the CCP. Anyways, to a more positive note here. Markets across the world rebounded a decent amount, continuing their rally. And this is not only do a course to fed monetary policy and other central monetary policy, but this is coming out of a lot of confidence out of Gilead Sciences, one of the long largest pharmaceutical companies coming out with some successful Phase 2 trials for their drug for and 19 and their vaccine that they’re working on. So it’s really good to see this. I think it’s a little bit of a premature reaction. I have no doubt that eventually we’re going to start seeing a pullback here over the next few days, guys. But I would not challenge or try to short this market. Maybe if anything, I’ll consider buying puts like basically options in this case that would bet against the market over a certain period of time. But I would not be shorting or holding leverage. Short ETF certainly thing. I know some people have asked me about that. And first off, I can’t take us what to do. You get it. So what you want to do? I personally wouldn’t me personally, because this is a moment of time where you’ve got excessive monetary policy and the Fed is basically mentioned infinite QE. I can be bearish here, but I’ll be honest, I’m bearish in the sense that I’m going to wait off and I’m not really to try to hold these gains because quite frankly, guys, it’s good to see equities doing this performance and, you know, the other day and stuff, again, I set aside cash instead of considering positions in equities. But I’m in no rush to get into it. Crypto right now has been a net benefit more than anything I’ve ever had held in equities. Plain and simple. I have had some really good trades in the past with equities, but I think at the end of the day it’s no rush to get into this. I’m sort of rambling here, right? Markets are going to open up about 2.3 percent to new relative highs here or basically a little bit above where we closed the other day and the mid part of April. Or go ahead here and talk about a few things here. First off, the sector, some index here on LMT are showcasing extremely risky behavior. So basically aggregates a multitude of things over forty five different industries. This is basically it. It measures if like, for example, industrials overbought or, you know, consumer discretionary or technology. Each of these will add a point in this case in the sector. And you can see where we went from negative 40, probably negative 40 to up to about 40, 41. So I would say in this case to be a little bit cautious. Again, this speaks to the tone of what I was discussing earlier. Now, initial unemployment claims, this is very important taking the mining guys over the next few weeks from April to May. We are going to see, again, continued week by week increases in this case of millions of people basically claiming unemployment in this case that each of these weeks I get this is not a declining number in the overall cases of people who are on unemployment or filing for unemployment. This is the declining growth. And after this, the real shock right here is going to happen over these weeks. And then after that, it will likely stagnate. But the important thing to note to make keep in mind here. Sorry. I think the important thing to keep in mind here is that every single week we postpone this opening. Right. These ramifications come in. And I’m not saying that’s not the smart move to just hold off and make sure we can contain it or it’ll come better prepared and knocked out the cases. In fact, flying the curve. What I am saying is that this is why I’ve mentioned very strongly that this is going to have long term ramifications. Another chart here, this really sets in stone. This is the official unemployment rate forecast. There’s you 3, you 5 and you 6 from different measures of unemployment now taking the more conservative measures for unemployment, which again, do not include things that people in part. Basically, people who are working part time, very short hours or for example, might not be seeking work. You’re still going to have unemployment anywhere from around 10 to 12 percent here in November of 2020. And over the summer, that’s expected to finalize around 50 percent. Now, if you’re talking towards a much more realistic statistic of U-6 right now, U-6 is a little far out there. It’s considering everyone who is not employed in this case for a very large number of individuals. Again, I think honestly, both of these metrics are a little bit too biased in one way or another. We’ve talked about it on ShadowStats or a few other things. I think it’s good to have this data, these different perspectives. But I would say is we’re somewhere in the middle 20 percent of the economy is not going to be working this summer and a lot of that is well going into the fall. That’s gonna be about the same case as we Prestowitz 15 percent. And it’s going to persist for a very long time. We’re going to be between 15 to 10 percent unemployment going into 2021. Don’t doubt that this is not only a recession, guys, but these are numbers that we haven’t seen since the Great Depression. And that’s the thing that I drill so hard here. It’s so sad because I don’t want this to be the case, but even the forecasts are saying this. So again, unless we can have some kind of miracle happen, if we expedite a vaccine, if the Fed again provides more stimulus in the short term but doesn’t completely destroy the dollar and we get the flow of things going again, possibly, possibly we can avert a depression and only make this a short term recession. Who knows? I personally think that’s the case. Just trying to be a realist, guys, anyways. Well, let’s talk about some interesting ratios here. S&P 500 related to the 10 year Treasury yield. Very, very interesting. Measuring the yield here on the other Treasury. Excuse me. And basically showcasing here a massive decline. Biggest drop here that we’ve seen for a long period time. Although back I think back to the 1980s. Very interesting correlation against Showcase. And I think the kind of peek at the bond market here that we’ve been seeing again is it’s probably to continue rallying. But again, as we go to negative interest rates, bond prices can go skyrocketing. Right. So, again, very important thing to keep in mind along with that as well. Gold oil ratio, all time highs. You’ve had all of these peaks in the past year. Setting up to a massive ratio with gold picking up steam. Oil dropping like a rock. We’ve had a really interesting ratio again. What I always encourage, guys, it’s always been that in a lot of other Web sites. Look at the ratios. Right. You don’t see this on the mainstream headlines, but this is the kind of stuff you want to look at. Look at ratios between commodities and see not just commodities, but markets and commodities, other stocks between one another. It’s very, very interesting. All right. Five largest companies and S.P., five hundred taken up 19 percent of overall market cap for the S&P 500 is the largest number in history. Breaking out the previous high back here during the dot com bubble. Incredible stuff. Even after the sell off is continue to grow market dominance. This is again. I’d like another way of looking at market dominance like we do in crypto markets, 19 percent, nearly 20 percent. Doesn’t surprise me, though. Amazon’s been dominating the market right now in the sense of making shipments during a time of COBA 19, it’s more relevant than ever. You’ve got Facebook, Netflix, Apple, all these companies are still prevalent one way or another. Right. And then lastly, I want to talk about here. One thing I always try to emphasize with gold. A lot of things that people experience about an argument about gold being a commodity and therefore it can be a store value because it has industrial use case. One thing I always talk about is to take a look at what gold is used for when they just want to share it. Gold is a store value it today, a great store of value. And along with that as well. Yes, it does have some industrial applications, but its value is derived simply from the fact of its properties being great for store of value. And I can explain that here by taking a look at the chart we see here that for over 20 percent is foreign investments, 48 percent is jewelry. Now, again, this is where some people would debate this. This is utility. It’s not an industrial utility. This is a store of wealth. It’s but it’s a way to showcase that wealth alone. That’s why you have central banks and other institutions owning 50 percent and an investment ETF like GLAAD owning up to nine point two one percent. So if you take all of these numbers right, you can calculate. But a really simple way to look at it is just take the number of technology in this case for its actual commercial use. So it’s ninety two point five percent of all gold. That is used simply to store wealth. So they’re sitting in a vault or it’s sitting on your finger or your or your neck, in this case for a chain, right? It’s basically because of the properties, guys. It’s not because it’s properties in industrial use cases, it’s it’s properties in regards to store value. Wanted to share this because I thought L.A. or excuse me, Jezebel about sharing this was really cool. I’ve seen a chart similar to this before, but I was trying to stress it again. A lot of different interesting data points, guys. A lot of things are going on. Right. And a lot of interesting changes here in the crypto space. So again, I want to go ahead and emphasize a few key things here, guys. We’re definitely keeping an eye on equity markets, certainly keeping an eye on gold and silver as gold and silver have continued to pick up here over the last few days, still holding up here to its relative highs, looking like it might make support here on previous resistance. Silver silver is still down a little bit comparative to gold in this case, not making new highs, but we have recovered a lot of losses here. Silver said a nice rally here over the last few weeks. But again, we’re going to keep an eye on all this. The major thing, though, is that I am most bullish on cryptocurrency markets personally. And for those you out there who have crypto currency positions. One day I recommend you all to check out, especially as we have this extension to its tax filing this year is out tax. But now you guys probably heard about tax. But if you’ve been a big fan of the channel and watched videos consecutively. But just let you all know taxpayers are sponsor here, the channel, and they produce tax software that allows you to generate tax forms for your cryptocurrency, positions in your trades to know exactly how much taxes you owe. You can plug in all your exchange platforms. And again, it’s a really simple and smooth platform, right to do simply plug in your API keys and then after that your taxes are filed. So I recommend you guys check it out, see if it’s fit for you. And lot of that as well that you guess rewatch the video. Hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are. There’s a link down below if you want to check out tax bit to get 10 percent off on any of the packages. That being said, though, guys. Thank you all so much for watching. And I’ll see you off in the next video. Stay tuned.


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