Bitcoin Technical Analysis: Reasons Not To Buy BTC At This Point (May 2020)


Something really big is around the corner. And no, it is not just about Bitcoin. It is about a lot of these major financial markets. And I’m going to discuss that in more detail. But before I do that, I want to talk about this price action or here. So if you take a look here, you can see that this is the six one point eight percent fibulae treatment loan. So in technical analysis, whenever we see the price testing, the student loan over and over again, the probability of the price breaking below that level increases significantly. So as you can see here, the price was testing the sixty one point eight percent over and over again. And then it ended up failing here and it declined below that. So it ended up declining below that. And then it had just been trading or ahead of for a few hours. And then it ended up shooting posta six one one eight percent in just one big candle and made this big move to the upside. So this raises a lot of red flags for me. And for that reason, I would no longer be bullish on the market, even if we flip the 10 kilo air support, because I’ve been a price action trader for a long time. And to me, this is a sign of desperation. This is a sign that these big players, they want to discourage the shorts from entering the market. They don’t want the bears to schadt the market. And they’re doing everything they can to deter them off the market, to do just as you know, discourage them from shorting the market. They are trying to do everything possible to to make it, you know, way too difficult for them to short the market. So that is what they are doing. And you can see there are people at this point that would just give up because they would see this and they would be like, there is no reason, there is no way to short this market. And it doesn’t make any sense from a technical analysis standpoint as well. So for that reason, a lot of people who would just queue up at this point, but we still have to see the trend reverse on a larger timeframe. And as I mentioned before, it doesn’t make sense to be shorting the market here because clearly the trend is not bearish just yet. And we need to see the trend turn bearish before we start the market. So anyone who has been sharing the market at this point is just like playing with fire. You are just this kind of volatility is going to shake you out sooner rather than later. And it keeps on happening. So this was not never a good time to short the market. But what I’m trying to tell you is that this kind of price action, it it just exposes a lot of these moves to me. And, you know, if this is like a big red flag to me. I mean, I wouldn’t I would not be bullish on Bitcoin, even if it flips to 10K low at sixty one point eight percent retracement level, which is this line of work here. You and if it flips this line as support, I would still not be bullish on the market because there are a lot of other reasons that I would expect the market to decline. And I’m going to discuss them in more detail. So let’s get down to to it and first talk about what is going on here. So just to we were looking at the price action here and the price of Bitcoin. Sure. A lot of weakness at this important low of 97. So it’s not over here. It faced a key rejection for multiple hours. It faced rejection and then it declining deodorizing. Where you here suggests when we were expecting further downside or here, the market just kept on up. It just printed this big candle to the upside. And this shook out a lot of traders and, you know, ran their strops. So at this point, it has now entered back into this rising ledge. But this doesn’t change anything for me because this is clearly a sign of desperation. They are so desperate to trap in more people and to, you know, to be for them to shake them out. So they want to keep them hooked up on this, hoping they want to let them believe that the market is about to flip bullish when it clearly that is not the case. And I’m going to discuss that in more detail, because to most people, Bitcoin is either a safe haven asset or it is correlating to it is a risky investment like, you know, the stock market you in riskier than that, it is going to be similar to an emerging market. But it is one of these two things that either you believe that Bitcoin is like digital gold or you believe that it is, you know, the like like a stock market is like a risky speculative asset. So it is one of these two. And we’re going to discuss what would be the implications of comparing it to either of those. So first, let us talk about what is going on here with Bitcoin on the four hour time frame and what we can expect next. So as you can see here, the price has now entered this symmetrical triangle and it is similar to the S&P 500. As you can see here, it also entered this symmetrical triangle again. And now to Norway. It has been trading past this six one point two percent, just slightly above it as the data were here. And as it did over here. But did it change anything? No, it did. And the price ended up declining. And, you know, this is the same thing that we expect this time as well. So all of these fake moves that we see in the stock market and then we see in the Bitcoin market, this is just the final move, like the blues. I mean, people have become so comfortable being along the. The market, it’s it’s it’s ridiculous. I mean, a lot of people are still hoping that the market is going to recover from this point and it just got going to new all time highs or something. It’s completely hilarious to me. I don’t really get it because a lot of people think this whole Koide 19 situation to spend Demick is just going to go away and the markets are going to recover. I hate things. I’m never going to be the same. Things are not going to be the same. A lot of industries are going to be affected. And near term, a lot of pain is yet to come. It has not happened yet. So we need to we need to brace for that. We need to be prepared for that. This is not a time to be overly optimistic because it is not over yet. So for this part, I mean, we can see that the price of Bitcoin to climb this important trend line support and then it end up just shooting positive in one candle. I mean, this is just this is completely insane. And this doesn’t make any sense. So these are just fake movements, in my opinion. And this is not going to amount to anything visit. This is definitely going to end really, really bad. I mean, this is all there is. It is about. And as I mentioned previously in one of my windows, you know, we have a large percentage of, you know, long positions. There will be leverage where, you know, very highly leverage compared to short positions, which are less leverage this time. And, you know, you might have noticed that the percentage of unhedged charts at this point is very low compared to what it was in 2019. People are more fearful shorting the market this time. Bears are more scared this time. So this is a time for them to do to make the long position. This is a time for them to be liquidating the long positions, taking advantage of them. So far, they are letting them believe that the market is about to flip bullish. I don’t even blame the retail traders because they don’t have access to a lot of information. They don’t really have a good understanding of what technical analysis of market psychology and all that. If we’re talking about the average trader, I’m talking about these so-called digital hedge funds and a lot of these people are would be bullish on the market with their clients money. And they’re expecting and they’re betting on the market going bullish from here. And I don’t know what to tell. I mean, I really don’t get it. I mean, this is going to end really, really bad. I mean, I don’t have any words because this at the end of the day, a lot of, you know, retail traders that are of people that are buying this Morne dream are going to get hurt. The rich, the people that are playing these games, they are going to come out of this richer and you are going to end up giving them their coins. So people that make this argument about, you know, Bitcoin is going to be distributed more fairly if more people buy. No, that is not going to be the case. You are going to end up selling your clients to them when they are done playing these games. So at the end of every big move like this, you end up selling your coins back to them and they end up sending it back to you. And then you sell it back to them. They retain the control and they keep on profiting off you. So this is not going to change and they are going to keep on retaining that control. So for that reason, I’m not really bullish on Bitcoin long term as well. I don’t really know if that is going to be such a good investment long term. I don’t really see Bitcoin going towards one million dollars or something. I think that is pretty delusional at this point, considering what is going on. If you really understand what is going on at this point, you know, all this USD printing and all this fake pumping of the price, that will not be happening. If there was real interest in Bitcoin and there was really a lot of trading activity was real. The fact that all of this is happening is proving to us that these are desperate measures to keep this whole beom intact. And for a lot of people to be hoping that the market is indeed going to flip bullish and to try to turn to new all time highs from here, it is at this point is fighting between a bullish and a bearish set up. But, you know, we still don’t have a clear bullish setup yet. And it was bullish from this point or here. But then now it is struggling to retain its bullishness and the bulls are going to lose here. And the bears are going to win. But the bears are. I mean, I don’t like the bears out. The bears are not going to win because the bears are too scared to take a position at this point. The market makers in a ways, are going to win the bears. If we’re talking about reedited bears or even a lot of professional bears, I mean, they are scared. Most of the people on my time line that are bearish on the market. They are really, really scared. They are scared to take a position and they don’t want to. I mean, by the time they’re bearish, they would have missed the opportunity. The price would have already declined. So I don’t think the bears are going to profit off this either. I think the market makers and the waves are going to profit off of this. At the end of the day, the ones that are going to suffer the most are going to be repeated boys, because there is not much bears to shake out here. A lot of bears have already been shaken out, and those that are left are either leverage, sorry, they’re a hedge and they are less leverage compared to the long positions. So the bulls are at more risk and they are more wonder. But at this point. So the stock market, it is now at this point and we can see, you know, it is very close to beginning a major downtrend from here. And if it does, that is going to be the beginning of a major downtrend in the cryptocurrency market as well. Now, if you don’t think that the stock market is going to be the trigger for the cryptocurrency market to decline, then maybe you think that Bitcoin is acting like digital gold. So let’s talk about gold and let’s see what is going on with gold over here. So if you take a look here from August of 2018, the price of gold has been surging higher and higher without any significant correction at this point. We had a drastic decline in, but it wasn’t enough because the price just kept on bumping higher offer that without any gradual movement. And you can see that it is now at a point where we are risking a major decline in gold. And this decline is definitely going to put a lot of sell pressure on Bitcoin as well. And for that reason, I think, you know, if you are talking about Bitcoin being correlated to the stock market, then that is also at risk of a major decline. If you are talking about Bitcoin correlated with the digital, you know, with gold being a digital gold or something, then there is also at risk of a major decline. So at this point, the boys don’t really have much to look forward to. Bitcoin having is over and done with the price of gold is at risk of a major decline. The stock market is at risk of a major decline. We have a gap here that has to be filled. And, you know, we have a gap even lower at two thousand five, 70. That has to be filled. We have a gap at eleven thousand something as well. Eleven thousand eight hundred, I think. But I don’t I it could still be filled. But I think the market makers in Wells want to keep that gap. Were there to keep people hopeful that it might be filled at some point in the future, even if the price is declining short term, because at the end of the day, every move you have to you have to see who benefits. OK, so who benefits from a certain move if they’re going to pump the price higher from here? A lot of people would be inclined to cash out in the market to to sell their bitcoin. And many people at this point who have either missed a rally or they are always skeptical about what is happening at this point. They’re not going to buy here. If the price promise Boston, it’s not going to buy it. If it is at a kill or twelve. They’re not going to buy because they know the risk that they would be taking on, because it is too risky to be doing that at this point. They know that this thing is not sustainable and it’s going to come down crashing down really hard at some point. And as I previously mentioned, this kind of a decline that we’re going to see next year is going to put this one to shame. It is going to be much more aggressive, much more brutal compared to this one. So I have no reason to believe that we are going to see anything bullish in Bitcoin mid-term or long term, because this is definitely not a pretty picture. And the big picture is definitely suggesting that we are going to see a much more devastating downtrend this time in the cryptocurrency market, because we are going to see the price of Bitcoin decline below this just submitted for triangle. And it would not be surprising for Bitcoin to reach subtree kilos this year. And I definitely expect that, and I definitely think that is possible. So let us talk about the Yooralla for expert, as we can see here, it has made this big move past this American triangle as well as it did previously. This fake out that then led to another decliner. We’re hearing the same thing seems to be happening again because these moves like these are not sustainable. This is not likely to last for long. This is the same kind of a fake out as we saw here and which ended up leading to a major decline. The same things. So it seems to be happening here. We can see that the RSI is now at a point where it is way. Well, no. And is it at a point where we can expect a downturn from here because it has clearly run into resistance or here. So if it declines again, there will be a trigger for Bitcoin to decline as well. We have another trigger as well, which is Bitcoin dominance. It has now seen some bullishness off for testing this this important support of sixty seven point six six percent. So Bitcoin domains could rally from here. And Bitcoin dumbness is what we have been looking forward to for a major rally. And if it does happen at this point and we see a major breakout in Bitcoin down, that is going to be extremely bearish for the entire cryptocurrency market. And is going to begin a new chapter in Bitcoin dominance, which would lead to Bitcoin down the street, winding back to pre 2016 lows over here. And as I’ve been previously mentioning, this is going to be a doomsday scenario for a lot of these arguments. So this is this is why I think all of this is happening, because the stakes are too high and these people want to do the best that they can to get out of the market and to send their alcorn’s to a lot of these people that are going to be buying the moon dreams and they want to send their their ahlquist to you before that happens. So in my opinion, we’re very close to topping out here where we’re close to beginning the next major downtrend and this next major downtrend is going to be enormous. This is going to be really huge. And this is going to be really big compared to what we saw. We’re here. This is going to be extremely much more aggressive. So we’re now at a point where we could expect a major downtrend in a lot of these markets. And, you know, I have to, you know, reiterate a quote from Ray Dalio that this is going to be the mother of all bubbles, that it’s going to burst this time. And this is definitely that I see happening because gold is definitely in a bubble. This is definitely a bull. Every time there is a talk about, you know, the Fed printing money and all that, people just keep on buying gold. And the same goes for the stock market. People are you know, people have been enjoying this crazy frenzy or heard this bullish frenzy. For some reason, they think the market is just going to keep on going higher from from here. And I don’t think that is very realistic. I think people are going to catch up with reality soon. But as you know, by then, it might be a bit too late to do to do that for a lot of retail traders. So Bitcoin, as we can see here, is now at a very critical point and this kind of a decline. I think, you know, just look at this chart. We’re here and see what the what the upside could be at this point. So if you are betting on Bitcoin going long from here and do or you are betting that Bitcoin is going to go further, higher from here and now you’re essentially betting on it, taking out these highs and taking off, taking out these size and just rattling further. And you’re also betting on it rising past the sixty one point eight percent fibulae treatment level, which is a really important fibulae, Kaseman, LOEL. And previously, as we discussed, it has not broken Poza six one point eight percent before it ended up testing it. And then it declined from there. As you can see over here. So you are essentially betting on this time being different in light of all that is happening in the stock market, in the gold market. And, you know, with this whole pandemic and everything, you are betting that this time would be different. And to me, that would be a way unreasonable thing to do because that doesn’t make any sense. And if if you are betting on that before having, then I can understand that. But if you are still betting on that, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to me. And even if Bitcoin were to flip past, you know, flip this 10k level support and if it were to climb above that, there’s still a point where the risk for me to be long, one bitcoin at that point would be enormous. And I don’t want to take that risk. I don’t want to be long one Bitcoin until and unless it breaks this trend line support and turns it into this trend resistant and turns it into a support as long as that doesn’t happen. I cannot be Longland Bitcoin at this point anyway. If that had happened, I would still want to see a good long setup on the on the daily timeframe. And as you can see here, the RSI is in a downtrend on the four hour time frame. We can see that RSI is in a downtrend. And for me, there is no reason to be bullish on Bitcoin when all of that is happening. And I certainly expect a major correction, which has not happened so far. And this is not just worth my risk appetite at this point. It is not worth the risk reward for me at this point. I think the risk of a major decline from here is much higher. And I think a lot of people have gotten so used to Bitcoin rattling like this that they think this is going to go on forever. And most of them know at this point and they realize that this is just USD bumping the price up. And yet they know that this is all fake. But they still think that this can go on for long and they still believe that, you know, this USD can see if the price and it can just pump it higher. But at the end of the day, the people there are pumping the injecting USDOT into into the price. They don’t care about you or your profits. They are Gwent. They are working against you. They want to be the sole reason. They are printing USDOT to print to pump the price higher is because they want to take your money. They want to to profit off the actual people that are trading on this market. They’re actually buying these coins and they are going to just keep on dumping their coins while you are buying. And then when they’re done doing that, they’re going to crash the price and that they’re going to buy at the bottom again and they’re going to rinse and repeat the same thing over and over again. So that’s on for this video. And thank you for watching.


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  1. As always Jefe, thanks for your update. At times I don’t agree with you but in this instance I see your points regarding Bitcoin and am very appreciative of your insights . In retrospect, What are your thoughts long term regarding Ethereum, it’s potential use case, growth and price outlook years into the future? It has a growing consortium of businesses looking forward to its use cases. Your thoughts are appreciated, kindest regards!

  2. i think you have a 1 fits all mentality wat means al is connected like in stocks and real world i think you need to do a step back and look at crypto and not btc that time is gone crypto has real use cases

  3. i've never seen you this bearish before. are you giving up on BTC all together or still believe it may visit 1K and bull run from there? is the latter scenario out as well?

  4. I am following you for a long time and finally, you realized that BTC is HIGHLY MANIPULATED asset more and more moving into scam. It is not worth to invest and in such circumstances it is even scary to trade because you never know when manipulator "whale" will step in. In addition, exchanges are also manipulating since they have a lot of BTC and whenever there is a big drop, they have an "Software accident" and stop the trade (there was never software failure on fast high level BTC pumping). It is because exchanges have no cash to give to the sellers but can always give you coupons from stock (BTC) as much you want to buy. At the moment, a lot of miners have closed for good and now they are manipulating market in order to get as much as possible FIAT by pumping BTC.

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