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Bitcoin To $100K By The End Of 2022 | A Macro Perspective

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT

What’s going on, everyone? My name is Nicholas Martin here, a day to Dasch and today is April 7th of 2020. Well, folks, I hope you are having a fantastic day wherever you are in entity’s video. We’ve got a lot of topics to discuss. We’ll be talking about the short term strength in crypto markets as prices are rising about a month out and to have an event and along with that as well, we’ll be discussing the longer term perspective and crypto markets and discuss what we can see consistently with each and every cycle throughout cryptocurrency history. The key term is expanding cycles and outside of that as well. In regards to traditional markets, I want to spend some time to talk about the continued stimulus, both physically as well as through monetary policy that we’re seeing that are going to keep markets afloat in the short term and how we can expect that to play out in the long term. So you can obviously see I’ll get a mouthful today. Guys are going to be talking about a lot. So let’s just go ahead and dive right into it. So take a look here across the board for crypto currency markets. We can see there’s been a lot of strength throughout the market, a lot of plays pushing up towards upper single digit territory or pushing towards double digit territory. And a lot of those having to be some of our plays. Chain link up nearly almost 20 percent here, up eighteen point five percent. We can see here as well another DFI place play synthetic except twelve point seventy percent, a theorem one of the largest plays, the second largest crypto up. Twelve percent, Kibre Network up eleven percent here and even down here is well-based contention togain up 9 percent. So a lot of good cryptocurrencies across the board. Some of these some of the larger cap plays anywhere from the top 10, top 20 doing very well and regaining a lot of market capitalization. The key thing that I would say here to give in mine is we’re about anywhere for about $10 billion short from where we were back before, again, the beginning of a dramatic sell off that we had in crypto markets. So, you know, in a matter of a couple of weeks, we’ve been able to recover back these levels. And I’m confident that in the next seven days, basically a month from this point on, we’ll be able to get back to where we were originally. Now, again, in the sense of overall all coins, we’re seeing a big rebound here of network finding supported a similar range it found back here in late March. And again, on a key level here, that was resistance before we had the continued breakout. This is a common pattern that we see. It’s exactly what I want to see after again, having this stark breakout here, guys, a decent correction holding the vast majority. The gains, though, a continuing forward here. Again, it’s going to take a few days to see this support. But again, this is what I want to see here. Chainlink generally hold another line of support here on the logarithmic chart. We can see back above the line resistance here. Want to see this breakout continue? I want to see volume pouring in here. This is again, good price action to see. But I want to see follow through here in order to get really confident a long term nonetheless against some of the better performing all points in the market. Here are some of our top portfolio picks at last. We’ll take a look at here. We’ll take a look at tomorrow. Take a look at Wren. Wren still holding higher lows. In this case, I want to start seeing more higher highs. But it’s gonna be hard to be out where we were back here in March before the crazy sell off. And then outside of that as well. I don’t know if I’m, like, blind right now, but looking for basic attention, token on my list. And I have no idea why I’m not saying it. There is bad. It was up there. Missed it. So holding on the critical support, we talked about our newsletter here. This is a key support level that it’s been held in the past year. You can see here around two thousand one hundred Satoshi is there was a previous low here, here here is previous resistance over here and also previous support. So, again, good to see that it’s holding here. I want to see momentum pouring in on this one as well. But all in all, that is taking a look here at the short term performance. Bitcoin has really been, I think, a reason for a lot of these all coins picking up here as we break through an ascending triangle here on the chart. You can see here the prices of broke through and we’re pushing towards around seventy four hundred dollars for bitcoin. The short term, again, getting back up near just a few hundred bucks away from the day we had the dramatic sell off in crypto. Again, one thing I want to emphasize here before we dive into the long term perspective, guys, is I know there were a lot of people, a lot of people who were going out and buying Bitcoin at thirty eight hundred four thousand four thousand five hundred. And a lot of people were thinking, oh, my God, the retail investor, the average everyday Joe is buying at these prices must be a bad time to buy Bitcoin. Right. Because it tends to be that the retail investors always wrong. Well, turns out so far, guys, again, who knows? Prices could go down a little bit. I guess I’m predicting the rally were going to keep this momentum going up into the having event and then we’ll pullback only to six or seven thousand if anything, afterwards. The other day, guys, retail investor made a good choice. If you were one of the many out there, if you were, take the time and the comments to mention what price you got, guys. And I’m interested to hear where you got it. But in that 24, 48 hour period, it provided an optimal opportunity to buy it. Sadly, I didn’t have much cash at the time I was travelling in New York, so I can’t say the same. But for those who did. Bravo to you. I did hold through, though, and to those you held true as well. I hope you’re benefiting from it. I hope at the other day, guys, that it’s been a net benefit for you to hold to the spirit of Tomic’s. Now, small coins are actually higher than where they were back here. So, again, very exciting stuff. Guys, glad to see that if you held out, I would assume most you who are here on the channel probably did so. So let’s go out and talk about expanding cycles, taking a look at the longer term timeframe. You know, one thing that I always emphasize, guys, which is so cool that it’s such a blessing not to see it into the day that we have this kind of data just like readily available to everyone. I think it’s it’s so cool. And this is not how it used to be. You know, before the Internet, you know, you just couldn’t get access to data like this. But I want to go ahead and talk a little bit about the expanding cycles for cryptocurrencies. Now, if we take a look at the previous three clear cycles that we had here in cryptocurrency markets, we can generally take into note that we’ve seen an expansion of about a year added to each and every cycle. So if we take a look at the first one here, give or take, the first cycle is around eleven to twelve months in this case for bitcoin. We can see from the Bialek’s indicator going from a whopping, you know, few cents upwards towards, you know, 30 to 40 dollars here, depending on what exchange you’re looking at. And we could see that this was generally around eleven bars here on the chart, again, about a year. We could see afterwards from the bottom to the high, just like we did with this previous cycle, 24 months again, that two years here in this case, from top to bottom, going from around $2 per bitcoin all the way up to around eleven hundred in this case around eleven twelve hundred dollar peak. And we can also see with the third cycle that we had a thirty five month period from bottom to top roughly give or take almost three years. So if you were looking at the five or 10 minute chart, you’d probably have little to no understanding as to how long these cycles are and what we can expect from the long term horizon once we’ve found a significant low after a bear market has gone through. Well, luckily, we take a look at the long term cycles here, guys. I know many of you do same as well either because you’ve just generally done that before or we’ve emphasized that a lot here on the channel. And now we can get a good understanding here of when we can expect the top for the next cycle. Again, there’s no guarantee that history is going to repeat itself. Exactly. There might be some big disruption discrepancies this time around with the macro environment. Having event might play out differently. But if you take a look here, the logarithmic growth curves here. Right. And taking them out of the significant lows here and the significant resistance bad, we actually get a line up quite nicely here to a top of around a hundred thousand dollars. Right. Give or take could be around that range. It might not be exactly. Even sometime in 2022. And I think that this is a very conservative estimate here. I think this is much better than a lot of people who think by the end of this year we’re going to reach 100K or by the end of 2021, we’re going to reach 100K. Look, we kept our large price target even after the sell off, guys, because prices have recovered quite substantially and we haven’t even seen the economic ramifications of the having of it and the continued macro environment going into a higher state of fear. Right. These are the things that can drive bitcoin to that valuation. But what we did is we expanded our time horizon. We looked at the longer term timeframe. We’re taking in substantial consistency here with each cycle. And I believe, you know, pretty consciously in this case that 100 K is quite reasonable. Bitcoin at over trillion dollar market cap is going to be relatively reasonable in an environment where there’s money fleeting from global bonds, from local currencies, from equities or property markets. As we enter into a longer drawn out bear market through a potential depression, that’s a very, very conservative ask, in my opinion, for a new emerging digital gold for millennials and genze. Right. So anyways, again, just a key point here is again to focus on these longer term timeframes, to be patient guys. This is going to be a long journey, but it’s going to be a fun one. I really think that we not only have this potential for markets to multiply many times over, even after Bitcoin, it’s been around for so long. But along with that as well, I think that there’s going to be a lot of exciting innovation here. This is going to really be the technology for the time. And I’m excited to see the economic ramifications of the having event as well as the macro environment in the sense of the reflection of price. But I’m also excited just to see what kind of cool technologies come out during this time period. There’s just not the kind of innovation that we’re seeing in cryptocurrency markets, in other markets. Play it simple. I mean, this is just a really exciting time. So if you guys are excited about it too, I hope you’ll stick with me here on the channel over the next coming months, the next few years. And if you haven’t already definate consider subscribing. Definitely love having more people join the family here on the channel. Now I want to go ahead. We’ve talked to get him out of the long term perspective on crypto markets, short term perspective. I talked about some of the plays that I’m in currently and want to go ahead and talk a little bit about this macro environment that I’ve been hinting, as we’ve discussed about Bitcoin and talk about what we can expect from equity markets here in the short term. Now a lot of people. A lot of people talk about a V shaped rebound. This has been probably the term that’s been tossed around by most market traders and market experts in regards to mainstream media about how Koven 19 and the whole general scare that we’ve had here over the last couple of weeks and months is basically going to spawn into a V-shaped rebound once it’s all over. And we’ll come right back up to the highs where we were beforehand. And I’ve really drilled to the point that I don’t think this is the case here, but I will go ahead and be a little bit more specific to talking about how I expect this to really play out. And about that, again, one of my favorite data Web sites are constantly putting awesome stuff out on their blog for free. For all of you out there, I really recommend you check them out and if you want, consider subscribing. But they’ve been coming over these great charts and they compared the S&P 500. Now, again, bear in mind, with much different valuations, but in an equitable ratio, the S&P 500 from 1929 to the current S&P five hundred and twenty twenty and the pullback that we saw between these two markets. Now, this is really it’s interesting here. It’s an exciting correlation between two significant periods of some of the worst sell side action we’ve ever seen in history in the sense of the severity of the downward pressure on price. And interestingly enough, we can see a lot of similarities and not only regards to the downturn, but possibly to the rebound as well. Now, of course, this is going to take time. And I have no doubt that we are going to see a definite difference in price action here. It’s going to depend a lot on, you know, whether or not there’s talks of vaccines, whether there’s talks of continued quarantining periods where people are staying inside, especially if they’re not essential and generally just a general slowdown in the optimism and the business environment and consumer confidence that might lead to some discrepancies. But I do believe here, as we’re, you know, injecting lots of stimulus across the board, that’s going be the key topic today. I think that there’s a very good likelihood that we get a continued rebound in equities and then a roll over a longer term dead cat bounce where valuations eventually roll back over again like they did in 1929 and 1930 and continue back downward. Right. And draw down even further. That’s where I think would be very, very reasonable to expect here. I think in this case, again, that’s the discrepancy we’re going to get here. Whereas again, in 1930, in this case rate, we held a quite steady in this case for a while. I think that we’re actually going to roll back down to the lows and continue down and get a full 50 percent correction at a minimum. All right. That’s the bare minimum here. So, again, let’s just go ahead and talk about why markets would rebound in the short term. Well, the Federal Reserve has made that very clear. U.S. government has made that very clear through its physical and monetary policy. We’ve injected over six trillion dollars of buyside pressure to or I would say pretty much positive pressure on the markets as we’ve been putting in six trillion dollars liquidity, four trillion in regards to the Federal Reserve status of injecting new cash in the system, buying up treasuries, buying mortgage backed securities. And as we’ll be talking about, hinting the idea of equity purchases. But if we want to talk about equity purchases and excessive central bank monetary policy, look no further than not only the ECB, which has been increasing during this time period to new all time highs, but the Bank of Japan, which never even pulled back in the first place, like the US Central Bank, the Federal Reserve and the ECB had done in the past. If you might miss it here, it’s it’s easy to miss. But we’ll go ahead. Well, Zuma, just to make sure people see it, the Bank of Japan leading the way as a central bank across the world, more than any stimulus from the People’s Bank of China than the US and the ECB. They are the leader in this case, adding a couple of hundred billion dollars extra in stimulus or trillions of China, a Japanese yuan in this case, as they declare an emergency package of a trillion dollars in regards to the stimulus package that Japan has condemned together in response to the Konar coronavirus. So we can read through the details here of this case coming through, unveiling a stimulus package you describes as among one of the world’s biggest to soften the economic blow. And Japan has had to take on excessive stimulus because Japan’s economy, interestingly enough, from the severity of the 1980s bull market that it experienced, that saw valuations at ridiculous levels. The property market, most, most especially, but in this case, also in equity markets. But I digress. Japan has been the leader in the sense of the steps of monetary policy that the world is all going to experience as a whole. Everyone is becoming Japan, as many people quote. A lot of people like Rand Paul, a lot of people in the economic sector mentioned this fact that we’re going to become like Japan. And that does mean culturally persay. It means and in the sense of the status of its monetary policy, the cycle of history of a currency and debt. And basically, Japan has experienced what’s known as deflation. Right. Japan has been at the cornerstone of deflation. This case, it’s had a very big issue trying to stimulate its economy. To get the economy going and actually get real economic growth, GDP growth. And because of that, they’ve tried excessively to stimulate the economy through the central bank. And they’ve actually gone as far as not only just repurchasing their government bonds, repurchasing maybe toxic assets like mortgage backed securities that were getting played a role in 2008. But in this case, they actually have gone through over the last decade and been one of the largest stock purchasers. So to put it simple, how much is Japan stimulating the underlying economy? More specifically, let’s get real here. The equity markets, while we can take a look here at this Bloomberg article here, again discussing not only the excessive degrees that Japan has gone to in stimulating the economy through quantitative easing and negative interest rates, but going into direct stock and ETF purchases, we can see here the bank, Japan’s monthly ETF buying program has had its record setting month of over fifteen trillion yen. To put that in perspective. Right. We’re talking about one hundred twenty $30 billion plus in stimulus. We can see here that over 12 trillion yen. Right. This was the original figure before the updated data here was registering in over $130 billion, a buyside pressure for equity markets, a record set for a monthly basis. If they were to keep up this pace for a year, this would be a trillion dollars in buyside pressure for equity markets coming from the central bank. Not real world investors, not even not even the government in this case, the central bank just printing money out of nowhere, devaluating the purchasing power of the yen. But we could see more consecutively here. Right. That the buy programs usually peak out somewhere on a monthly basis, around 8 to 9 trillion yen. Dida Agresto At the end of the day, this is still huge. This is anywhere from 80 to 100 billion dollars a buyside pressure. This is the equivalent of stock buybacks in the United States on a monthly recurring basis. So this is huge. I mean, this showcases where the Fed is going to be sometime in the next year to what sounds like a fantasy pipe dream is going to become reality because equity markets will not be able to sustain themselves in an environment where there is mass layoffs, where there is a lot of people claiming unemployment, there is going to be a general downward pressure even as we go back to work here in the next coming weeks. It’s eventually going to have a general downward pressure, a general negative sentiment that this is going to slump the economy, slump corporate earnings, slump consumer spending, and eventually equities are going to start selling off even more. Stock buybacks will not be enough because there will not be the corporate earnings to supplement them. The central bank, much like it had to do back during the mortgage bank, the mortgage backed security crisis and the housing crisis is going to have to step in and take the position of the net buyer of equities. So we have no one else to blame the Japan to showcase that it can provide as a buyer to equity markets. It can supplement buyside pressure for some time, especially during this period of time where buyers are coming in. But inevitably in this case, this is going to lead towards a much larger issue. And that is going to be the purchasing power of your currency because the S&P 500 and other equities are like individual stocks, ETF or whatever it may be. They can go up in valuation. We can see their values go up on a chart and they heck, you know, again. Guess I’m going to go ahead at all golf web here. I could be completely wrong in the S.P. 500 could set new all time highs with this kind of stimulus. But I would ask you all to do one thing for me. And when that day comes, evaluations to get that high or even if they’re rolling over and I’m right in the sense of evaluations going down, I would ask that you all do a simple thing and that’s to look at the S&P 500 adjusted for inflation, because you don’t see that here. We don’t get to see the S&P 500 adjusted for inflation. And if you take the time to look at the longer term timeframe here, even back here in 2009, in 2002. Interestingly enough, if you adjust for inflation, these valuations are actually starkly different, the lows and the highs, your showcase that we generally were setting lower lows and higher lows excuse me, lower highs in this case. And I have no doubt that by the time the Fed, the ECB, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and the People’s Bank of China, all the major central banks the world are done running through this game of analysts infinite QE, which is really the last thing we have to do now that rates are so low, at least for the vast majority central banks that say China is the exception. At the end of the day, valuations might look good on paper, but in reality, the purchasing power that you have inevitably still having your money in equities, global currencies will be down. So anyways, that’s the point I want to drill here, guys, and get in the short term, there could very well be some value here in equities, right? Some trading opportunities. The market had a nice rally yesterday, 7 percent. Futures are looking like they’re going to be up another, I think, 3 or 4 percent this morning. I don’t bet against QE stimulus in the short term. It can be a fun ride, right? But at the end of the day. We’re doing great in crypto currency markets. We’re hedging for the longer term in this case. And I’ll let you guys know if I do any kind of, you know, crazy short term positions here in equity markets. No doubt there’s value, right? There’s value here in the short term and the long term. I wouldn’t want to be caught with a basket of different stocks when it comes to the point where central bank stimulus no longer works. So anyways, that’s my key point here, guys, overall enjoyed this video, if you like the trouble like we didn’t have as far as a related video, but if you guys want to support me, I’ve got my startup company appears sometime in May. We’ve had DeLay the launch here with Cauvin 19. So you guys want to keep up to date with it. There is a Web site back for the 21st century dot where you guys can sign up for an e-mail system which will alert you when the startup launches. So you guys don’t miss it. We’ve already got about twenty five hundred people asked how I check that have signed up for it. So definitely consider signing up for it. I really appreciate it, guys, and we’ll let you guys know when it comes out. I’m real excited to reveal it to you. Guys at EOL are going to love it. It’s built for an audience like yourselves that’s built for people who are everyday excited about cryptocurrencies, excited about, you know, challenging the traditional financial system. Again, I think it’s really going to like it. So anyways. That’s it for today’s video. Hope you all enjoyed my rambling. And I’ll see you off in the next video. Stay tuned.

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