Bitcoin IMMINENT Signals! March 2020 Price Prediction & News Analysis


Every once in a while the weekly flashes a massive signal. Looks like we may have one of those in the making. My. Son. My. Son. That means a Mustang. Get me a Mustang. Oh no. Welcome back to crowns. Click they cave. Also crowns quarantine cave and crowns crypto cave all in one. It’s a three and one deal right now and I want to wish you well in this nice little Sunday morning no here from actually a bright and sunny Helsinki Finland. Unfortunately I can’t go outside because I just had surgery and my back is severely fucked up. In fact I drastically. I dressed. We underestimated the pain that would be in after this and how long you take to recover so I think I’ll probably be taking it easy for at least another day right now. Perhaps could change a little bit later we’ll see. We’ll see how things go on. You never know. But but I do want to say that twitch probably won’t happen today. Maybe it will but probably not. Anyways with all that said I want to talk about the Crown trade application before we get to the actual analysis because I do want to follow up on that opening statement because there is actually some pretty massive things be aware of and the crouching application is showing once again or actually maybe I should show you where to get it which is app dot Crown cheated on that and it’s right anyways anyways the open interest essentially remaining flat from yesterday to today even though Bitcoin is kind of floating in the mid to low 6 thousands of which that’s going to really tied to the analysis once again and then more importantly we also do see that Bitcoin dominates more or less steady here and the fear and greed index wallets at extremes actually did rise up just a little bit from yesterday to today. Other than that keep your eyes on this the open interest essentially remaining flat at 500 million essentially will essentially half a billion if I can stop saying essentially that even better. Any great apologies about that. Oh and before I forget I should I’ll say that’s because of the quarantine because I’ve gotten a lot of requests for this. We are going extend the discount period from the to what was once the two year anniversary of transcript. Okay. This community is now going to be the the fucking quarantine corona virus discount right now which will extend until Friday so so so no rush on that. As always with all the with all the programs make sure that they’re applicable to you watch the videos that accompany them in the links below which I’ve actually fix because I realize that they were broken before and the biggest thing from my end without getting too deep into that I wanna spend too much time on this is make sure that you excel at that you actually have enough time to invest into them. There’s three main programs one being the complete newbie program titled the neophytes initiation to trading into and technical analysis. That’s a ten hour long program so not that long but it’s true it’s dedicated towards direct beginners so if you are already comfortable getting run exchange you know what the green red button do. You know the basics of technical analysis and more importantly risk and position management and you are already at some level consistently successful. That program will not be applicable to you. However if that does sound cute then hey go ahead for the other two programs that tentacle announced program the Options program. They are about 35 hours to 40 hours long and require a significant amount of time and financial investment. So as always take advantage of the free content on this on the channel first. I have Tier 1 1 playlist I have options 1 to 1 play this even videos from those programs in those playlists and other than that I think I’ll get off that topic and get onto the actual analysis. So let’s get to the charts right here. Again keep in mind that open interest no which by the way we just we scan it and it looks so beautiful. I’ve absolute fucking love it and we can go right over here to the weekly so I want to start off with a weekly and very rarely do we get signals on the weekly of course. And for good reason because it’s a weekly it takes a long time for you to really populate itself and and even longer to play out. But right now is one of those times now need to go over the deluxe index for this. For this example right now mostly because the deluxe index is going to show more long term price action. Now we are off logarithmic scale right now which is more which is not really relevant what we’re talking about but I just want to show that this is this is what the actual chart fucking looks like anyways. Anyways with regards to that the big signal that I’m looking for coming into this next week of trading or perhaps even better said this next closure which we’re gonna get tonight at I think 8 p.m. Eastern time it might be 7. I think that America already had changed their clocks. I’m I’m I’m I’m I’m unsure if the clocks change on American times or European times on trade and view but I believe it is going to be 8 p.m. Eastern a time when the weekly closes and we have a pretty obvious signal range going on right now. Does the weekly close above there’s there’s three situations which are likely to happen here or really just in general that were that that were concerned with the first situation is what is what we’re showing right now where Bitcoin’s essentially above both. And let me actually get rid of everything set for these two things or maybe even we’ll leave on three for right now. Just make this as as as clear as possible. So the. First situation is what we’re actually doing right now where the weekly is currently trading above both the two and exponential remember to the tune in simple and obviously 3 7 7 as well more more relevant towards long term. But if Bitcoin can close above all these mostly the two in the next bunch of an average and the twin it’s simple right here which the highest one is currently at about fifty nine hundred called then I would look for this next week a price action to probably fish back down into the tune and it’s simple very very likely still but I would probably also be looking to be a buyer on that retest of that region maybe even below 5000 as well in the upper 4000 region. I don’t have a strong opinion on that but my strong opinion on our side my strong opinion would be to be a buyer of any sort of a of any sort of a comeback into those regions especially this order block coming in back from April 20 of course. So I really do like that region. If we do close above my bias switches to maybe a little bit of a long term accumulation perhaps. However it is very important to want to first obviously say that it’s not finished by smart venture Vasa but I am happy to share my exactly what I’ll be doing these sorts of any sort of same situations and make sure that I’m recording I am recording and my phone’s working so it’s good and my camera number two accurately shown my balls ups my bald spot in the back of the head. It’s great. It’s even better when everyone fucking comments in on it on YouTube it’s like what do you want youtube for it to tell you about year to tell you about your fucking face anyways. Anyways so as as it is right now of course we are above both these areas. Fifty nine hundred being the critical component of that because that’s what confirms it essentially. Here’s the thing though. First off Siemens did not close above that region in fact CMI is closed above CMBS closed in about 59 75 and had about 100 dollars premium on price action with regards to spot. That means that spot was around about fifty eight fifty ish region during Friday’s closure when CMBS closed. And typically these things going to line up when CMBS open later tonight or probably be within the vicinity of each other. And looking at CMBS right here this is not the picture of health and fitness on the way that they close Friday before before the weekend of course. Now again be very careful with this because if you just look at the right hand side over here on trading view it will actually show the closure of CND at six to 10 I believe is showing like the post market the post markets a relevant point. We’re looking at right now we want to see where they actually closed or in the actual trading period which was again 59 Sandy 5. And there’s a little bit of a premium on that price section because spot. So that means that it’s not necessarily a done deal even though we are about 5 or 400 bucks above that critical point right now that we’re looking at on the weekly. So a lot of a lot of things can happen between now and the closure at again 8 p.m. Eastern Time. We’ll look at probabilities and in a little bit later. But I need to delineate first the higher timeframes and then mediate it with a lower term timeframes and then we’ll bring that in. So what’s option number two that could happen. Option number two that could happen is we closed below both the 20th century on average and the Tunisian average which the tune in simple is coming in right around about 55 50 ish region. It’s actually the wick down that we got on Friday around closure. So if that were to happen my immediate response would be to look for continuation over the next week or two to the downside probably down to forty two hundred ish region again likely another bounce there and then probably ultimately all the way down to thirty five hundred ish region. I do not think that I do not think that we’d bottom out 40 200. I think that we’d probably bounce there. But I do think overall at the very least we test thirty five hundred and that’s where the people who are calling for price action down to the 2004 level or were even 1000 or our level that’s when they really start to have some some big things in their court once again. But for right now it’s not necessarily there. It’s a little bit it’s a little bit an oddball situation. And then of course option number three door number three what could we walk through. Well if Bitcoin closes above the twin simple which is about 55 50 and below the 20 next Benjamin number which is about fifty nine hundred anywhere in between that range which is actually where CMBS would have closed us on Friday which again typically do line up as spot does like to spot typically does move in accordance with that pretty much almost always. Then I wouldn’t necessarily have a bias either which way my bias would be towards another move at the very least to the downside of the 5000 to our region 50 100 would be extremely likely even 48 49 it would be quite likely and to the upside I don’t really have I don’t have an opinion there. I think that we probably retest the tornado as much for an average maybe even like 6000 even. But overall I do think my my strong point on that one would be that we come down to the low five thousands. So this next week the closure coming again tonight at 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time is really going to set the next week or two. So worth the price action which by the way then sets in our monthly which if we go over here to the monthly the monthly is looking very interesting right now. The reason why say that if we could put on some some major moving numbers here that be good. The reason why I say that is because if the monthly were to for example close where it is right now pretty fucking get pretty pretty fucking good. If the monthly could close above seventy three hundred extremely good extremely good in a bitcoin does closes next weekly above above the 20 next Benjamin average again coming today. I do think that bitcoins can have a chance to do that and that would really be that would kind of really set the foundation for perhaps perhaps another earth shattering move in the opposite direction but still got a long ways to go for that that at least take two weeks to really confirm. Right now we’re operating well below and also as you can see with our movement Masur is actually even with prize action where it is right now would not do all that much for it monthly Stokes still kind of nosedive in here after rejecting the ball control zone and monthly RSI is very concerning to myself as we’re kind of nosedive in this region. I don’t really see any any real reason to stop it before we kind of test the edge of the bear’s controls and so if I had to call it right now I am bearish and I do think that that bitcoin will will carry out some more downside here. If I had to call it right now. But again my opinion is irrelevant. I’d rather just go off of you know very obvious areas which the weekly’s making very very very very very very easy for us right now. Very rarely do we get you know things this this lovingly but this is one of those times. Anyway it’s going down to a daily going down to a daily is you know a couple a couple of things for consideration right. First and foremost I want to show that of course we have the death cross on the exponential Moon averages between the green and the purple it’s 55 and the two hundred right there. And all major moving images do have a negative slope except for the 10 simple obviously this you know the most reactive but for right now this this creates a nice range for us in the essentially in the dahlias like for lack of a better term right now between the yellow 21 percent to an average and the red 10 simple. So once Bitcoin sorry once Bitcoin got the death cross we said it was very likely to tip to one of the lower period moving averages like the 10 simple or the twenty one we got both obviously. Now comes the next move of this sequence which is going to be delineated once again by well we can do this two ways but more obviously by a break outside of that outside of the twenty one to the upside or below the tenth symbol to the downside. Funnily enough both of them correlate with extremely important areas a longer term which we’ll get into in a second as well right here but before we get to that there’s also another way of doing this. If we look at I believe this was Friday yesterday was Saturday. Yes on Friday right here. This long legged digital also gives us a very easy way to be managing trades going onwards and forwards for the next. Well for the next move essentially whichever way that we break above or below this area is very very very very likely to be the next direction. So Bitcoin even trades below the low of this at 56 70 which by the way would be in between the 20 simple and 20 next bunch of an average I would at the very least look for move back down to 50 100 and probably even as far as like 48 50 40 900 ish region down here I’d look for another moved down to the low side of the range by the same token if Bitcoin trades above the high of this which I don’t think we should use stamp for because it’s it’s a little bit an outlier it’s at 71 thirty nine for example and you know gee DAX is at about a little bit below 7000. Mexico is a little bit 69 50 and here’s what Phoenix is Yeah. Phoenix is 69 30 so they’re all they’re all a decent amount below 7000 so I do think that stamp is the is the outlier here. And I’d actually more more likely use Mexico or or GDP for this or sorry Coinbase about 69 50 ish region as long as four below there. I would not be looking for attenuation to the upside on the medium and higher term timeframes but that does mean that if we do take out the high side of this still though then I would look for extension actually quite a bit. I really don’t see much stopping BitCOIN from at that point from about realistically like 70 70 400 ish region all the way up here. So we are looking at big bad moves relatively soon and even just waiting for the breakage of this guy right here is you know it’s it’s still going to give you about 500 da maybe even maybe even a thousand dollar plus trade with a little bit of continuation on top of that. So let’s check out our momentum our citizens see how they’re doing right now. We do see that daily stocks are actually headed north. However watch you are probably also noticing is that they’re at the at the edge of the bash controls on which is very very very very very common to see some kind of trend pressure on that region especially when you’re in a heavy trending territory daily RSI. Do you have anything of interest here as well. If we confirmed this as a local high which we have not done just yet actually and really the only way to. Well we could do it two ways we could either trade below the low of this Dodo again about 56 50 ish region or if we closed like a 4 hour maybe below. I mean if we close a four hour below like six feet fifty nine fifty I think I think it obviously do it as well which I think probably has happened actually then then we came for. Then we could likely confirm this is a local high. And and we would have hit it bearish average between this point and our last break down a little bit above 8000 right here and that would likely be good enough to send us back down to basically like we’ll just call 5000 our base. Which again I do think is more likely to happen here and at that point I would look for something something resembling divergence on daily RSI. Right now we have no we have no bullish divergence on a daily or higher timeframe and Bitcoin has never bottomed out on a macro scale or even on like a major scale not even being like a macro markets like a low but even just like a major low before one of those you know face melting pumps or dumps without without divergence on the daily and in this case would be bullish I’ve heard and so we don’t have bullish evidence as it stands on on on on any on any chart here. And just put this in perspective you know the last time that we had bullish evidence on a daily. This was not a markets like a low obviously but this was a pretty nice major low precipitating about a 4000 dollar rally from sixty five hundred and ten thousand five hundred. So I do like that. Again another triple driver right here before three thousand dollar rally. Obviously not a macro low but but a major low this one a macro cycle low right on over here and three drives to the downside. Once again we have plenty of examples in 2018 even throughout this whole downwards market and this massive descending triangle where you know we we have some pretty nice pumps born off of these but born off these examples of bullish Albertans on the daily RSI. And then if we go back a little bit further to our last downwards market cycle we do see obviously bullish numbers come down the last major low right over here and a few and a few price points in between on and on some of these major lows and as well as this guy right here on this major low oil also kind of kind of kind of a cyclone and then this guy running over here as well. So I just want to show that historically speaking we’ve never bottomed out on Bitcoin as far as the macro goes and even on like a major low without bullish debt burdens on it barely see daily. So I do think that bitcoin has probably not seen the end of this move just yet. I think that bitcoin most likely has lower to go but I don’t think that it has to be all that much although much lower and to put in perspective. I do think that the clinking part could tentatively bottom out like at forty two hundred or thirty five hundred. It’s not gonna be coming this week or the next week or the week after or maybe the week after that but I just want to say that you know we’re we’re talking about higher term timeframes right now. So it’s not you know it’s this is not that shit that’s happening today. Today is going to be more. More so just like small ranges I’d imagine. Well maybe not so small but well we’ll get to that in a second. Anyway speaking about today I actually do think that that very short term the very short term is probably setting up for a for another retest a little bit higher probably probably somewhere right around like 66 out of this region. I wouldn’t mind another test on the daily 21 expansion damaged but assuming that that gets rejected that will be a damn good signal that we’re going to come back down and and swiped those low five thousands once again. So I would be very cognizant of that. Also what’s majorly staring us in the face is is the fucking cheat code of them all which I say hey you don’t need abiding by programs you just need it you just need to look the load at the twelve hour Stokes and pay and put on my settings but them and if they start turning I will get bearish on it just just basically based off that. But in the very very very very very short term I do think that bitcoin is actually a little bit likely to have another hunt to the upside here. The reason why I say that is because lower term time frame all sorts are once again turning up. Would you see that for our stocks are going to ask are seeing a little bit of pressure to the upside here. But more importantly we are testing this trend line coming in all the way back from TARP gets smaller more so this guy right here all coming in all the way back from what’s called 12th of March which has gotten a couple of our good lows along the way. Obviously 12th of March outside the first drive coming on this low right here then this low right here. And then once again coming in around this or tentatively this low right around here. So I do think that we probably are going to see a little bit of a rally attempt from this region. And if we’re just going from blue box to blue box I do think that’s our next relevant blue box in between is going to be between about 65 50 and 66 50 ish region right here. So do you think that bitcoin can make another another foray attempt into this region and given a stab there you know take a lot of people out of their positions and then and then get one of those nasty hunts that goes the other way. Especially when we when we consider that open interest is more or less flat over the last few days while Bitcoin has been more or less going up while volatility has been contracting and volume has been going down. Looking at our far right here volume volatility has been steadily contracting the whole way through volume has also been going down in a nice orderly fashion from left to right. As you know as you’d expect. So I do think that’s in less of U.S. Open Interest just absolutely spike up like another hundred million maybe maybe even tuner million in bitcoin breaks above let’s call it like 60 let’s call it 60 780 just be even more conservative with this one then I would be very defensive against a move like that. And it’s also. And like I said we do have a very natural well not we but I do think that there’s a very natural way of kind of managing this area right over here to begin with just with a wake high that we saw on on the 2010 march which again Bitstamp the outlier other exchanges showing more so around like 69 50 ish region which I do think is is more accurate. So yeah. You know if I had to kind of summarize my thoughts in the lower term timeframes probably are going to get another another move up here but I would be very very very very very skeptical that it actually turns into a rejection. Looking at the three hour timeframe we do see that same sort of trend line which is actually a little bit more efficacious on the three hour see it coming in coming in all the way back from over here in fact doesn’t need to be perfect just need to be kind of like a regression which you can see more or less works. What’s up. Peter B Good to meet you man. Welcome to cave. Pleasure to have you here ma’am. Anyways anyways bouncing off the trend line once again which has been holding up a lot of low since actually the 8th of March. By the way getting this bounce right here obviously these bounces do fail but it gets you know these are nice moves nonetheless. I mean five hundred two thousand dollars this one like 70 75 all the way to you at the height 82. Not bad seven not someone at all and move gets us gets this low right here obviously same thing as a four hour gets a slow right here. Another another phenomena one and then more and then more recently. Once again testing this trend line somewhere in this region right here. So I do think that very very very very very short term bitcoin actually likely does test test the upside once again tentatively speaking somewhere between about 65 50 to 60 650 ish region. But assuming that we get another rejection right there which make it an assumption to be fair I’m not to be fair but like I need to be very very vocal about this making a massive assumption here assuming that bitcoin does get a rejection right here. Be careful be be very very careful because there are some signs of trap B trap behavior going on right now. And if we start to and if we do get a rejection there on the lower term timeframes you can imagine that’s going to carry on over into the 12 hour which is going to then turn down and we are going to. Well should I do it like this kind of do you have another competing trendline forming right around here. By the way it’s also worth mentioning that I think really what we’re doing on the twelve hour something like this is something like this. This has caught all of our lows by the way since since since beginning of February. Like major lows obviously not macro lows but major lows. And we do have a competing front line coming in right around here. So again close enough close enough so if we do start to see some downside pressure that’s going to be good enough for me to look for this price action too. Well you already know where I’m going with that. I also want to talk about the the to date and the three day really really quickly to day is going to have a death cross relatively soon assuming that Bitcoin assuming that Bitcoin stays below about 7000 bucks it will inevitably get the death cross probably in the next ticker to which we are getting the next tick today or sorry I should say later tonight at 7:00 p.m. Eastern or it’s. I’m still it still stuck in my mind 8:00 p.m. Eastern Time. You need to make that adjustment. And and the longer that we’re below 7000 just the the the sooner that we’re gonna get that death cross game between the green and the purple. And historically speaking let’s actually go through this one just really really briefly. Actually I do want to leave some of these on because this could be quite quite fun to do. OK. Yes we’ll leave we’ll leave Willy for the movie in Arizona. I want to put the focus though on the green 45 and the purple 200. I don’t know if I have the 55 or the 50 on there but it’s basically the same thing. Anyways anytime that anytime we get this cross even if it is kind of far away from price action during a phase of consolidation. More importantly speaking though. That is that is usually going to be get some consideration you know in the same direction as that for example right here the golden cross the upside during this consolidation phase. It spent some time consulting obviously but eventually does get that next blast to the upside especially as long as it is and it is trending as long as it is above the 21 expansion damaged by the way the yellow moving damage right here you can see over here when it breaks it funds over essentially back on over here back on over here. Gets gets the death cross on the two day or in September 2018 and that’s when things really started to get a lot more realistic for breaking to the downside at least at least when we would when we were doing videos on this site during this time period that’s when that’s that’s when he was like OK not only do we have all these bearish things going on as far as the macro picture goes but now it’s actually an actionable trade. It’s becoming becoming more and more relevant. So we have the death cross right here and there is no. Opens and closes on a two day total timeframe. Intel Intel. And will and Intel until we basically put the loan right on over here. So. So perhaps it’s better to be said not just looking for closures above the 21 percent to an average but an open and close. Which is going to be more more relevant essentially. So yes you know same thing going on over here and this was a 50 percent move. Of course you know from top to bottom we’re talking about a 50 percent move. I mean I think even over here to the upside it probably even was maybe close to that as well. Well actually it’s like a 2 x but that’s to the upside doesn’t really it doesn’t count. Doesn’t count fuck them. I go back a little bit further than that to our last last death cross committed right and over here gets a death cross right here retest the 55 right here and then destruction at to that going all the way from top to bottom another 60 60 percent. But let’s even just take it from the from from the next break the 21 so so so. So again we get the death cross right here. Breaks above the 21 initially then comes back down. Let’s just take it from the next breakdown of the 21. It’s about 50 on the upper end of the 50 percent region. Then other than that we don’t really have any other death crosses on this time frame unfortunately two to analysis sides. But more importantly the picture that I’m painting right now is that yes while Bitcoin is probably even likely to test back up to the 10 simple right here which is 66 50 by the way as long as we’re living below this area and especially below the 21 century average. This is well the you know the bias from this time frame would be bearish would be to the downside and we do see that the that the 55 and the 200 are on an inevitable crash course as long as Bitcoin’s below 7000. It’s going to happen this week. Not on this next tick but very likely on the next tick. Again as long as Bitcoin is below 7000 which the last week high that we see right here is coming in about sixty nine fifty ish regions. So if we come up with a with a way of looking for tuition from that we can say that as long as we’re below that region. Or at least I can say that as long as are below that region I am still bias to the downside. That also creates a pretty massive range. The upside that we could test but I would look at that as an opportunity to get into a position in the opposite direction essentially it went with a very natural Stop Loss out you know at that area. So yeah. And of course all major moving efforts here have a negative negative slope as well which is really when things do start to get nasty right here. And of course amazing to the upside right here. And again back to the downside riding over here. That’s when things actually are quite nasty. So if we look at momentum positives as well you know is there anything else of note here. No no no bull chevrons be found. We do have two days to day stocks turning up but I don’t really care actually too much about that funnily enough. To me this is kind of a retest of of historical areas from this time France perspective. Anyways we don’t need to go into that to get the next piece of price action go through the three day as well. Her side. There is something on the 3 7 7 that I want to look at. Was that the two day or the three day. Not yet is a three day. So yesterday Yesterday night we closed a three day deal. Who is this guy right here. And this guy right here again. This was a pretty impressive deal though. You know at its height about 38 percent to the upside but on a closing basis. So when the Boston algos are are essentially programmed to close this price action at 4:00 the market movers they wanted to all the way down here giving you just about 16 17 percent of that initial 37 38 percent dildo which is not fucking good giving up more than half of your rally almost immediately is not the most bullish thing of all time. Just like just like buying up you know most of your dump almost immediately right over here is not the most bearish thing. That’s why we were saying hey it’s likely to bounce in this region but it might not. It might not be done just yet but at least for right now it’s likely to bounce. So same thing same sort of thing goes on right over here and you know could we pop back up maybe just around the 10 simple again or is are 6 650 again but still closed below the 3 7 7 here long term. Yeah. Could could very well happen. And let’s just see what historically speaking that 3 7 10 expansion in average has meant for bitcoin’s price action. Now historically speaking it’s actually well we could go to the Helix index here. OK. Yeah. That’s actually really really good. So historically speaking any time that bitcoin is below the 3 7 7 on the on the on the three day we are in. We are in kind of the end portion of that bear market now the end portion can obviously take you know in this case a year right here but it gives us actually a nice accumulation range more or less. And you do see that you know once Bitcoin starts opening closing three day deals back above this region right over here it’s glory times just like when we closed below. You know it’s it’s in an accumulation range but it’s also coming off of like literally fucking 75 percent down. Same thing over here in in. In late 2018 or early 2019 Bitcoin breaks a 3 7 down on the 3 day gets a death cross the same time by the way looks a little bit familiar right and over here we create a nice range you know it doesn’t really go that much lower to be fair you know especially for looking at a log scale which is kind of which is kind of disingenuous but you get my point about once we break back above glory times once again. So Bitcoin over here retesting this region very very very very quickly. It’s giving us two things. You know if we reject from it again I do think that bitcoin going to come back down at a out of the range and we’re gonna do something like what we’ve done the last couple times and at the very least range between upper 4000 and low and mid to low 5000 for a little bit of time and probably due to stab lower overall. But if they Cornell’s could start opening closing three details about this region long term could be OK would would would look a lot better and probably PRI push us back up to the to the mid 7 thousands and that’s when things start to look a lot more rosy. So they’ll be quite nice by the way. That was Felix index. This is this is stand by to go to be elected to get that together X extra piece of price action but you can see on stamps actually a little bit nastier. We did actually came from a close below the 3 7 7 yesterday night. So you know again I do want to be on the record as saying that I do think that bitcoin comes back down below 6000 again. I think that it probably and comes to the low 5000 again even if it even if it is even if this weekly does close above the 200 expansion and average at fifty nine hundred I still think even mid 5000 quite likely and in a low five thousands is it still a little bit likely we could spend some time just awesome in this area right here even if it even if the low is in and then later on moved to the upside. OK. Cool. We’re also going to talk about she’s crazy and these videos already been 30 minutes long and there is still a lot to say there’s gonna be a long video how I warn you right now once you’re already 30 minutes in which most people already ticked off anyways let’s go check out the trolling to ban. The trying to bands looking like. We have a rejection on the median trying to bounce off that last rally. To me that that shows that we’re probably going to come back down and test around one of the lower appeared moving averages probably around 10 simple which is 50 700. Again have to really think about where that forces the. The daily daily much more as we really looked at that. Looked at 12 hour what’s got into the lower term time frames now. I didn’t do too much work on this but let’s go back down down around here. Let’s go back to actually beat Mexico for this one. I do. I also do kind of have this drawn out as a potential Bear Flag. We can we can discuss that idea in a little bit. But but but but here we do have side you know maybe we’ve maybe we do want as a start. Yeah. This is gonna be easier said Alice. Now let’s look some probability ranges. Do we want to be used in this area where whereas the chart that I was using. Yeah. Is this one right here. OK. I quote We use this one. I want you like the more preliminary resistance. But there you know of course of course as we showed yesterday this this area right here is still very much relevant. I just think that what is more relevant especially as we close a weekly today is gonna be this region right here in this region right here. OK so if we do close a four hour total and I said yesterday 60 150 if you’re if you’re more aggressive and if you’re more conservative 60 50 I think I think this we did get a close like at 60 a little bit above 60 100. So you know we can probably move that down just a little bit and tighten this up and really should be more accurately shown like this and then we could look at this guy right here to the upside if we do break above. Break back above 66 50 and especially close like a 4.0 above there. I would look for a retest of the prior high. And at that point we’re gonna have a legitimate chance to trade above the prior high which would initiate a move likely back into like seventy four hundred. So while I don’t think that that’s very likely right now I think it’s important to talk about all the different situations by the same token a move to the downside with a forward to a closure below this below the sixty one 100 to 60 50 ish region rate 60 50 ish reason to say that properly. Right here I will look for extension all the way down to at the very least fifty seven hundred and sorry anywhere between about fifty eight and fifty seven hundred probably small bounce there and incubation to the low side of the range overall. So let’s go to our probability chart and see what this is populating right now with those critical targets in mind. Let me go to my inputs by the way it’s been updated once again by taking an absolute absolute drastic care of his work which I absolutely love anyways. So we’ll do some single sided probabilities here to the upside. We’ll do that ones first we’ll do the more the more conservative area at 66 50. And let’s see what the probability of us closing above that region is. Okay. So sorry. Target price range. Okay. Yeah. Six six 12. Okay great. All right. So above 6 650 which would initiate that next move up probably back to 60. I’d like to retest our prior high and at that point we could get that continuation above our prior high 69 sixty nine fiftieth region which would initiate that next move towards really realistic like 73. It’s only 400 so that’s kind of a big trade right there. That is a less around a 24 percent chance to happen in the next twelve hours closures which is three hours and 36 minutes so probably not very likely right now below their 76 percent. Obviously. Just the difference between those but let’s look at the let’s look at the bottom side. Let’s look at the bottom side which I will say is 60 100 and let’s see what the probability this is sort of margins are going to be a lot more. Okay. So below 60 one hundred and thirty six percent chance that we actually do close below there and this next twelve our total closure. Again three hours and 35 minutes which is all going to be the next four hour closure as well. By the way so is it more like that we go to the upside or the downside. Well obviously the downside right here even though I don’t really think does move like happens right now. I think it’s I think it’s going to happen like Price sometime this week. And then of course let’s actually look at what like what the. Let’s look at the daily range. Let’s look at the daily range. So again let’s go let’s go to a chart that actually represents a little bit better. We’ll take the high of this guide about 69 50 and a low this guy at about 60. Our side 56 50. So. We’ll do 69 50 right here. Let’s see what it what is the probability that we do this on the daily on the daily. So now we’re looking at the daily close which by the way look at the look at the ranks. They have flattened out once again after being slightly slightly moving to the upside but to dodgy totals in a row. A lot of indecision right there. And printing another one as it is right now. This one would show that we do have a less than a little bit less than 16 percent chance to close above that’s that critical 69 50 ish region. A lot of you know a lot more likely a lot more likely below there. It is only for you know for the next day’s worth the price action into the downside. The critical area that we can see 656 50. It’s going to be klutzy also. Also about equal probability a little bit less than 60 percent chance here as well. So as the you know as the rings on this START you once again signal a change there slightly angle to the downside right now. I would say that that does angle a little bit more in that direction. So I you know I actually do think that I actually do think that’s that that’s more likely. Even though they’re kind of equally as likely as each other both getting both but both the actual area at the top end of the first aviation and the downside of first navigation funnily enough. Now you also notice that the second aviation is exactly where it’s exactly where a last few closing bases were at about 50 50 to 50 100 region which is where I think Bitcoin’s going to likely come back down to about should we get another rejection right here and to the upside and to the upside. Well well our seconds renovations actually we had seven six hundred although I’d imagine are one and a half would be at that 73 ish number so. So we’ll get to that one. Again I don’t think that that happened states it’s going to be more or less irrelevant for right now. But keep an eye on that as the days transgress. Also another big thing from the macro picture that I want to put the that I want to put the focus on. Fuck it’s not there. Let’s let’s put that let’s pick up let’s put on the hash ribbons. We haven’t spoke about this in a while although well mostly because there just wasn’t really much to look at but the hash ribbons have actually signaled a sell once again. Now every time that these have turned red. Well let’s just look at it. Let’s just look at it. So the LAT the last time that I actually really remember was October 2018. That was a break of six thousand ninety three thousand. Remember. And also remember the two day death cross by the way kind of in the same region as well. More recently we had this breakdown right here before this. This move all the way from 85 to we see it right here from about 80. Sorry 86. Hey from 86 down to at the at the bottom about 60 460 500 so about a 30 percent move this one over here. Probably more like 50 percent move I imagine some like this. About 50 percent to the team. Before that we had a few examples right and over here. Let me zoom in on it. We have this example right here. Before it before this major move down. This was this was in the context of a general uptrend by the way this one. This one was another 30 percent downward move and then a couple of examples in 2014 and 2015 right here where right and also and also one back in 2015 right here. But let’s zero in on these two guys as well. These were these ones weren’t as obvious not as as as nasty but still nice moves down actually this pretty fucking nasty right here. And remember there’s a two day death cross at this time as well. That’s one about 6 percent down and then we had this one over here which would have been a phenomenally bad signal actually. This this one obviously did not give any real real edge even if we give it a more. Yeah. You know even if we make some excuses for really not not all that much I mean at most at most and this is like complete fucking hindsight trading. But twelve percent and I would even say that. I’d say I’d say it’s more or less a bad signal. But on the whole on the whole there are more good signals here than not. And you can you know you can go back all the way over here and we do have a few more examples which you can you’re more than welcome to look at yourself. So just another thing in line with that to date a little death cross that I think is concerning and does make me a little more angle to the downside at the very least for a retest back down to the mid to low five. And what kind of pick it up from there and and see. Oh my God man this year sorry 40 minutes long. OK. All right cool. Um do I want to bring up that fact should I bring up that yet that we’ll bring this up. At least I at least if I do all the work on this video that I can point people towards it and I don’t have to go over it a million times anyways. It’s not the one that I wanted to look at. Maybe. They’re. Is it them. Mm hmm. Now we won’t go over right now. That’s that’s too much too too much in one video. What else can we do. Um. I want to do I want to look at probabilities between traditional markets and or sorry correlation between British marks and bitcoin right now. Maybe maybe not. We can go check it out right now really really quick. OK. So Bolly has actually gone ahead and done this in line with his with this new with with pig. His name is Pig. The pig the pig the pig pig the kid and he’s fuckin he’s he’s a goddamn genius apparently. And they’ve actually gone through and done even more drastic measures with all these correlation indicators. So the big thing here is is that we can now look at what we’re gonna call the pig the pig CRC which is actually a better version of the CRC because the way the trading view calculated is not exact without getting like too deep into how they calculate it is just to put it bluntly they just don’t really do it all that right. This is gonna be more correct. And then also he lovingly put in a confidence interval on it. And then if you’re familiar with like statistics you can have any tell time you’re looking at a confidence interval you also want to be knowing the p values. And essentially whenever this area down here is green that’s 20 that the p value is less than five which means that essentially the data fits and this is not an outlier and this is like par for the course and you can essentially generalize a statement to the to the greater sample size you can see right here we are extremely correlated we are actually not point nine one for on a daily by the way and r squared is decently high. It’s it’s not it’s not as high as it’s ever been but it’s decently high at nought point four seven. That’s showing you that quite a bit of this does fit in. You know in comparison if we were to if we did draw a correlation between this and like gold for example the square is gonna be like nought point and hit 90. It’s not even nought point one it’s not point not one one. You know it’s very very very very very very very very very very very very very very very low. What’s wrong when you go back on over here actually even Felix index going to be better. Anyways p values showing that this is that that this is efficacious that there’s good plus R squared being this high in perspective is very very very very very interesting as it would essentially confirm that it is not an outlier that we are seeing correlations with traditional markets and bitcoin at this time especially for the last major move for the downside someone we’re talking about the macro they do seem to be pretty damn correlated any time that we see a major move both to the upside or the downside in bitcoin that’s when we see the correlation between these two actually strengthen funnily enough and that’s what that’s one like the easiest trade between the two if you I mean if you’re like if you are actually looking at a hedge between the two which is just fucking silly to begin with as you should probably be hedging like on acid that’s what futures are for that’s what options are for like why do people make this more difficult than it needs to be I have no idea but more importantly on the macro and on the big pivot points they are incredibly incredibly fucking correlated and you can see I mean just for example like the last major high twenty thousand for bitcoin. You know how how high was our correlation coefficient our pig how high was our pig about even a little bit higher than where we are right now it’s a damn close to one and that is green as fuck that is green as that is green is the devil’s lettuce. Not only that but if we want to take this another step further for the macro let’s actually go to a monthly here. And zoom this out a little bit. So I’ve gone ahead and say. Also what’s new here is we’re looking at the way we’re looking at the beta value for this beta waiting in such essentially which is how to explain this one. It’s essentially like equating for returns between the two which is less important because I don’t really think too many people are trading these two against each other which again I treat the fucking trade the derivatives of that asset against each other like that’s going to make way more sense and be a lot easier on the soul. But what’s interesting here is that when the beta wane of this is really really similar between the two when they’re both essentially meeting this trend line that is that is correlated with the incredibly strong pivots on the markets sorry on both on both of these markets. On the macro scale. On the macro scale so let me explain. Whenever we had this trend line we are putting either major highs or major lows this one coming in from here. That’s your that’s your 2015 low. This one coming in over here. That’s your 20 that’s your 27 2009 Bitcoin both major highs right here. This high right here. And you know right before bitcoin breaks down 50 percent right before spy breaks down. That was the end of 2018. So spy was going for my two eighty or 290 to 220 I was a pretty big move and then more recently. What do you know. You know they’re both kind of in line. You can see this is once again sprucing up I want to see it that trend line and that is when I do think that we will likely see a macro low put in and as you can see it’s going to take a little bit of time. We are getting a new monthly soon in less than a week now as we are going to be getting to the end of the march. So let me see. One is end March to next week. No actually it’s it’s a week after that. OK fair enough. It’s about a little bit of time sort of a little bit time to be fair but. I went when this area touches this area I would look for I would say that we are either at the low or we’re so damn close to the low that I would just be interested in probably probably you know Kmart in long term. Again not fun some on venture visor but I do think that that’s quite interesting. Anyway. So you do have the r squared on on these two on the month is pretty damn high although the pig Sisi the panda pig right now is funnily enough not that high not that high on the monthly ever since a sense I mean it’s not point 3 5 it’s it’s it’s obviously positively correlated but not like super positively correlated this started to change a little bit drastically in April or sorry August 2019. So about half year ago. Started to change around. Other than that it was pretty damn strongly correlated the whole way through except for one of these major pivots down here. But you can see that the p value is telling you that that’s an outlier actually doesn’t fit the data. And in running over here you can see that this is pretty damn efficacious so for the majority of the history it’s been pretty damn good. And what do you know when they went when we actually see the correlation coefficient the pig go down right here. The p value is no is is no longer relevant is tell you that this is an outlier once again. So all this right here when we see a correlation between about basically on the monthly like not point nine and in all the way up till we were about not point six. This this this all fits the data and back on over here as well. Looks really really good. Other than that you know it’s it’s basically it’s basically telling you that that died is par for the course. I’m now I’m not saying that things can’t unquote can’t can’t decouple it deep can’t decouple and uncorrelated in the future of course they can’t and they probably will. If enough time passes but this takes time and and realistically I think when it comes to the conversation of correlations people and I’m not saying this in like kind of any way but people don’t really understand what correlation means and the difference between correlation covariance like your regression analysis and and and beat away in for for example as well. Correlation is just is just speaking towards like the direction of both those assets most what most people are talking about when they’re arguing what they think is correlation is covariance they’re saying like OK so spy went on this exact day you know down 5 percent and then bitcoin went up 10 percent. So they’re not core they didn’t go fuck yourself. No that’s that’s true with covariance or Jesus Christ I saw Pompe do this the other day too is like I show you he showed a chart of Bitcoin and said like over here you know during this price period we went like a hundred percent or bitcoin 25 percent it’s like it’s funny you start using the term we and you take on the identity of the asset and and and of course you know that’s that’s disengage that’s that has nothing to do with correlation the correlation is that both of them are going up the covariance is how much is one going up in relationship to the other to the other one. All right. So it’s kind of like beta Wayne as well because it’s talking about your returns for you know it’s gets correlating the returns essentially but but but but. When it comes down to covariance that’s what they’re kind of arguing. I think that’s what I think that’s what a lot of people think they’re arguing it’s like OK if Bitcoin went up a hundred percent then that means that spice goes up 1 1/2 percent as well. No that’s not it at all. That’s that’s not what you’re looking for correlation speaks towards like the general direction. So if you’re negatively correlated that’s what you really want to hedge. You want negative correlation. So if you are like long when Bitcoin. In short the equal amount on spy then then that would make sense as a hedge but at the else I mean at the outset again I just don’t see the value in jeans and like that. That’s why futures were created so you can trade you know against that asset on that asset and it’s going to obviously have a direct correlation with each other. Like if you look at a bitcoin if you look at Bitcoin spot and Bitcoin futures directly correlated with each other. So if you know if you want to if you want to hedge that’s probably the better way of doing it. I mean this is really only relevant for people who have like a massive portfolio for people just arguing bullshit on Twitter it does really mean all that much. And of course we’ve gone over this a million goddamn times. Maybe maybe my creative designer can cut that price. Sorry. Cut that piece up and we can add that on to the the nice little Twitter thread explaining it explaining the difference there anyways. Ok. So I think I’ve got the main points out of the way for bitcoin. Let’s go check out some the other market leaders see how they’re doing right now. And um and then we can then we can wrap this bitch up like coin does like when look bullish you know not at all actually looks pretty fucking disgusting in fact the weekly is if the weekly if the weekly closes especially below last week’s close. Sorry. This Jesus Christ is fucking the bitcoin parasite. Irrelevant. Take that take all of that back. Let’s go back on over here. Okay great. Sorry about that. Politics day looks very very very very similar to bitcoin actually very similar. What about even like the lower term timeframes. Looks a little bit better than bitcoin in the lower term time frames actually than that set. You know same same ranges essentially apply below thirty seven and a half problems probably all the way back down to 34 and more by the same token. Can plateau range between where it is right now and about forty one and a half dollars and doesn’t really do anything different but it closing above forty one and a half dollars and then extend a move probably up to like 45 46 bucks so I’ll be a pretty damn big move in the two to the upside that they’ll likely be bitcoin at about 73 to study 400 as well. Mr. beta all looks very somewhat a bitcoin right here as well. So really you know it’s really just easier to watch bitcoin but saw death cross is happening as we speak. The death cross will be the death cross pretty much confirmed already but it will further it will completely confirm today. So any sort of a daily total closure especially below like 160 is going to is going gonna get that we’re consolidating on the lows as we get the death cross. I do think that that probably forces price action back down the 110 range and maybe even beyond. Other than that what else we have. Me nipples. Same fuckin chart man. Like I don’t I don’t understand why people would request charts at all. They’re all the same thing. They’re all the same thing they’re all the same pieces of shit. If Bitcoin is bitcoin it actually could be the shit they’re all gonna act like a piece of shit. Bitcoin acts like a beautiful angel in disguise then they’re all going to act like beautiful angels. But for right now things are just easier to watch bitcoin. I’m not really seeing anything too much different these charts. So if you know whichever way brick Bitcoin breaks it breaks those ranges. It’s gonna be a next big direction. Here’s what Link is doing. Of course you know it’d be nice to see that everything does the same thing as Bitcoin is always gonna be some outliers but even link looks more or less like Bitcoin as well. Does look a little bit more bottom though. We do have bullish evidence on the daily as well although I think that that move is likely already played out. See what the weekly looks like the Weekly does not look good to me. Let’s put let’s put on some of these major moving to see. Mm hmm. Yeah I’m not I’m not the biggest fan of the weekly right here. I don’t think it’s gonna be the dawn in the market right now. Let’s go to out gold I don’t check out that one or how we closed on Friday. The fuck me. This one makes it difficult as well. I guess I have to be I guess I have to be bias that to show more downside opening but I don’t I don’t feel that come from that. I would not trade this one right now. To all the people making shit tons of money on that though. Other than that what is the real hedge. Oh it looks to me like Dixie is a real hedge. Strange very strange but uh the same looking very very very very very well over the long period time Monthly has a massive breakout a multi decade decade breakout actually really does pull back a little bit from this region but long term I do you like it. Um well if you want to talk about I think that’s about it. I think you’ve talked your ears off by now. Let’s go back on over here. So I grabbed this bitch up. OK. I’m cool at this. I think this truck gets it gets it pretty well right here. Any sort of a four hour total closure above about 66 50 and we are very likely to test 69 50 after that and of 69 50. Even if we just trade above 69 50 I do think that we will see further extension of the upside into like 73 study 400 each region. I think that’s quite unlikely. I don’t think that that’s what’s going to happen here. I think I think that probably we might even retest this region at 60 556 650 ish region right here. But I do think that especially with regards to open interest going back on over here it looks like distribution to me. And if we get the rejection right there. That’s gonna be the first piece of the puzzle. The second piece of the puzzle would be close enough for hour delay below about 60 100 ish region or if you want to be a little more conservative 60 50 ish region down here and then look for further extension all the way down to fifty seven hundred probably a small bounce there between about 57 or 58 and then I’ll look for that to get sold into you and bring us all the way down to the weekly to win it simple at about 550 at which I think we’d have another bounce in probably and probably move below there to the lower five thousands. I think that’s the more likely thing to happen in this you know in this territory of course just going off the weekly closes as we open up this video with I think that’s probably probably more than enough. In fact I’m curious. I completely forgot to do this but I am curious I’m curious. Jesus fucking Christ. I am curious and I’m sure that no one’s even listening at this point in time but I do want to see if fibs a fibs lineup with anything right here on a closing basis. And what do you know we did test the 2 3 6 on the bearish retrace. We and we’ve we strongly rejected the 3 at 2 so both nuggets are selling this area pretty damn hard. Yeah I do still feel that Bitcoin moves the downside here can be wrong that yeah absolutely and that’s why I have areas where I will change round in my bias but as long as you’re below those areas I will hold on to my current bias and with all of that said I want to wish you a nice and healthy starts here Sunday morning over here from a very sunny but quarantined Helsinki Finland. I’ll be signing off now and and against better now. It’s been an absolute pleasure to speak speaking with you. Whoever is listening at this point in time you are the true O.G. of this cave and and I wish you well. Take care. And until next time./


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