MARK COLVIN In today’s video, Bitcoin tried to break out the upside, but eventually, Bitcoin got rejected by any resistance. I want to have a look at that resistance level and why it is so significant. And in today’s video, I want to have a look as well at the possibility that the Black Swan event that we have seen that that might have stopped Bitcoins previous rally and that the price signal we are seeing on the hash ribbon right now is a repeated buy signal from Beheshti Rubin. We have seen before and right now it looks like Bitcoin is trading in this racing, which baited anyone to talk about the exact price levels that I’m watching in the bitcoin place to t to mind if we are going to see a break out to the upside and we can expect more bullish price action over when we are seeing a breakout to the downside and we can expect more bearish price action. So guys, all about that in today’s video. With that being said, my name is sure. This is the blockchain today deal channel where you subscribe for daily crypto videos. And right now, let’s jump into the content. Bitcoin’s price is still climbing. And let’s start off with having a look on the weekly timeframe. And here we can see this orange line right here and at this, the 20 weeks moving average. And in the history of bitcoin, it has been quite a significant moving average, because most of the time it was indicating whether we are in a bull or in a bear market. If we broke above the 20-week moving average, we often saw a nice run-up. And when we break below the 20-week moving average, it often acts as we shift stance. And as you can see right now, the 20-week moving average is acting as resistance. But this moving effort is lining up as well with a not a moving average, which is quite significant, and that is the 200 daily moving average. So let’s have a look into that. The 20-week moving average is right now at a proximately seven point eight K edit1, a daily moving average is right now at seven point nine case clear. There’s a little bit difference between those two, but those are both quite significant moving efforts. If we were to break a buffet and get a daily weekly close both those levels, then that is definitely looking fairly bullish for Bitcoin in the short term. In the short term time frame, it looks like the bulls starting to lose momentum. And let’s have a look what happened yesterday. So we were trading in this range almost perfectly in his range. We had actually some fake-outs here. We had a fake-out. I count consider this as well as a fake-out. Right now, we did have a break above the level. We tested the resistance. And I want to have a talk about that resistance and why I think this resistance is so significant. We got rejected. But if we have a look at the volume, we haven’t seen much increase in volume. But guys, let’s have a look at this. Reshift this line, because this resistance line is actually giving us a lot of information. Let’s shoot out the price of bitcoin. Let’s go to before our time frame so you can see right here after we had this huge dump, we bounce back up and we came. Yeah, exactly. To two. This was just this line. We tested it another time afterwards. And right now we are testing the same level again. And guys, this better’n is a rising retched Bethan and generally a rising, which is a better spread than 40. Chances are more likely that the price will break out to the downside wider than to the upside. Doesn’t mean that the price cannot break out to the upside. Of course, the price can as well break out to the upside. And the resistance of this rising ratch right now is aligning with the twenty-week moving average and its one-day moving average is slightly above that. So there is quite some resistance right now. Any bitcoin charts. So that means it’s going to be a hard time for Bitcoin to really break above those levels. But if Bitcoin breaks above those levels and can hold those levels, then that is definitely looking very bullish. But right now, I think we are trading in this channel in this rising wedge pattern. And when we have a look at the momentum indicators, I want to show you two divergences which are showing that the bulls are losing a little bit of their steam. And this first one is on the fly with time frame. We can see in the abbasi we are making a lower high right and indeed price we are making a high a high that is a bearish divergence. And that can tell us that the bulls are losing a little bit of their power and that the bearish momentum might step into the price of bitcoin. Although I do want to say from this bearish divergence before our time frame, it is not fishable on different timeframes. And most of the time it is a good confirmation when you can find these divergences on different timeframes as well. And guys, when we. Having a look at the one-hour time frame, we can see a bearish divergence as well. And Idrissi RSI. We can clearly see that every side is making a low a high end in the price. We clearly made a high a high. So that tells me that we might see some bearish momentum in the short term time frame, which could mean that we would test the support right here again, or which could as well mean that we come down and test the support of the rising, which in the near future. Ben, guys, I would like to have a look at a comment I received yesterday and I thought it is quite an interesting thought. I want to bring that up. So, Paul Rucci, he shaved about yesterday’s video. I don’t agree. You are too bearish. The capitalization at the beginning of March was a black swan event. Simply, it wasn’t meant to happen. The current has driven by is a reinforcing signal of the previous one. They are at the same price point. Previously, prices never fell significantly below the price point at the Hashwi have been by a signal. It’s going up and guys who want to have a small talk about this common because I do think Paul Rugy got a point right here and I’m just thinking about it in yesterday’s video hour. Let’s have a look at what Paul Butchie is saying here. Bull Butchy was saying is actually that this was the bottom face and this was as well the accumulation phase. And this might be a similar period as we have seen right there. So right here, we showed a minor capitulation and we saw the accumulation going on. And eventually, we got a buy signal right here. Right. And what could be the case is that after we got this buy signal, we broke out to the upside. We had this rally. But yeah, this rally stopped out right here at a proximately ten thousand and five hundred U.S. dollar. And now comes to the big question, would that really have been stopped? If we wouldn’t see this crisis right now, if we wouldn’t have that big sell-off, any stock market soared. Afterwards, we had this black swan event. And guys, a black swan event is an extremely rare event with Seafair consequences. It cannot be predicted beforehand, though many claims it should be predictable after the fact. Black Swan fans can cause catastrophic damage to an economy, and because they can not be predicted, can only be prepared for by building robust systems. Reliance on standard forecasting tools can both fail to predict and potentially increase full of ability to black swans by propagating risks and offering false security. So guys, the black swan event that we have been seeing, that is, of course, the Coldfoot 19 crises. It had severe consequences for the economy. And yet you couldn’t predict that with normal indicators we couldn’t see on the average. I write that there is a yeah, that there is a black swan event coming, that the Coldfoot 19 crisis is going to crash the stock markets. So yeah, what bull which what you’re saying is that this was the normal price action. We had this buy signal which was very bullish. Eventually, we broke out to the upside, but we got stopped. We got stopped due to this black swan event. And eventually, that makes this a repeat of the previous one. And I do think you can we can say something about this because it is an interesting fourth. I think it is definitely interesting because we had a buy signal right here. And eventually, yes, we got a black swan event and death led us to this minor capitulation. And guys, that is also important right here is one of the times we are seeing the price dumping first and afterwards we are seeing the minor capitulation. And that is logical because there is a black swan event. The economy is crashing. Surely the bitcoin price is crashing as well. And this liquidity crisis and therefore miners, they stop their operations because they simply cannot pay for the operations anymore. So they are forced to shut down, which eventually leads in capitulation in the hesh right here. So we have a price stock eventually that leads to capitulation. The Heshbon, for example, right here. It was slightly different because here we had still these price actions and we already saw capitulation happening before the dump. There was actually a very nice indicator right here that we are seeing the inversion of the hash Rayborn and afterwards the price plummets. So I think we can definitely say that this drop was as well cost by the selling pressure of the miners because we can see that back right here. These troughs are not crossed by yourself. Question of the miners. These drops eventually led to miner capitulation. And that is the interesting fourth right here. And I do think that. Yeah. Paul Voce has a point right here. We have to consider that take that into account because as well, we can see by signal right now it’s appearing at an A-s at approximately. A similar price actually, right in this rat range. So, guys. Now comes the big question. Does that make it possible that we are going to trade in this range and we will have a break out to the upside? Well, guys, that is definitely possible. And personally, I don’t think that it is the most likely scenario. I think when we have found a bottom in the stock market, that will be the moment that we are going to see a rush to sound money. We’re going to see a rush to bitcoin and gold. And right now, I’m not yet consensus that we have found a bottom in the stock market. And guys, my view on this is that indeed, I don’t think we have found a bottom in the stock market. I think we can see it is logical to see not a sell-off in the stock market. And I think the short term that that will have an impact on Bitcoin as well. I don’t think that they are fundamentally correlated as in that the price strife of the S&P 500 is similar to the price drive of Bitcoin. But I think in a crisis, the price drive. First, the fundamental price drivers are the same. And the fundamental price drive for any crisis is that everybody needs money to survive. Am I bullish on bitcoin? Yes, I’m definitely very, very bullish on bitcoin right now. We are getting a lot of bullish signals. Why? The fundamentals are looking very bullish price-wise. It’s looking very bullish. I definitely think we have seen the bottom. Any previous drop that was most likely the bottom. We are never going to get below those prices again. That is what I am thinking. But I do think that in the short term, bitcoin could still see some lowered levels to retest some lower levels. And I have some clear levels that I am watching, of course. And the first level is the resistance of the rising wedge pattern, which is aligning with the 20-week moving average. And of course, if we get a weekly close above the 20 weeks moving effort that is very bullish for Bitcoin, any short and mid-term, I would say the 200 daily moving average is slightly above that at 7.9. If we would get a daily close above that level, then that would be fairly bullish as well. I think in both scenarios we should get the confirmation that the levels are getting back tested as support as well. But I first want to see the price breakthrough and hold those levels. I think right now we are still trading in this formation. We can see the before you must still decline. We have clear support and resistance pattern-wise. It is a rising wedge pattern. And I do see some signs that there might be some bearish momentum coming into the bitcoin price in the short term. With this bearish, the Fed is only for our time frame and a balance that verges on the 1-hour time frame. But again, guys, that voices for today’s video, I hope you all enjoyed it. If so, please leave a thumbs up and let me know what you think about my analysers. Do you think Bull Ruki can be right? Was the Black Swan event something that held bitcoin down from rallying further in the past? Esti by signalling the hedge ribboned right now just a repeated version of the buy signal we have seen before. Guys, I want to know what you think. Let me know in the comments section down below and if you want to learn how to trade bitcoin, you can watch one of my tutorials and guides. I will see you all tomorrow. And don’t forget to huddle.