Today for the Bitcoin price of bitcoin went here below the two year moving average and also below the 200 week moving average which is right now acting as resistance and Bitcoin is struggling to get above. We will talk about the major importance of that level why we have to close above very very soon but even more important. Ever since we went below this most important moving average year which was never broken in the history of Bitcoin to specific on chain indicators which never failed so far flashed a massive bicycle the first time this happened was here in 2011 right here at the bottom the second time was in 2015 right here at this bear market bottom and the third and last time was guess what guys. In December November 2018 when we hit three thousand one hundred fifty U.S. dollars we will talk about this specific indicator and also about another brand new on Shane indicator. Guys which for sure no one has ever talked about so far guys who for sure do not want to miss out on that because this would give you a completely new picture over the market situation right now. So make sure you take a seat make sure you smash up the Like button right now to at least two thousand likes and that being said welcome to prevent and welcome back I’m trapped or my name is Chris and as always we are really pumped to go straight into the content. OK guys we are here on The Daily canvas for the big comprise and. This moving average year equals up with the 200 week moving average as you know we never went below it in the ten year history of Bitcoin. This is actually the very first time and we have to say we didn’t call it we didn’t see it coming. However guys with that being said do you remember the last video we actually here made the last one without having she two or three days back. And this video was called after Bitcoin broke this level. We always saw 50 percent crashes and even though we said that we didn’t expect it. However guys we talked about the two year moving average and if you go over here the orange one is the two year moving average as you can see it right here we recorded it before we actually broke it to the downside and we actually still had some belief that we might hold it. However we said always when we broke it we saw up to 50 percent crashes. Zooming out here and taking the measurement you can actually see if you take it to you from the day we broke it and you take it to the downside then you can see that we had a 48 percent retracement in that one. And zooming even more further out here once we broke it right here and on the day we broke and we even had a 60 percent or like 56 percent crash to the downside and yet we said if we break that this could actually happen. And I mean guys I don’t have to tell you but I will tell you right now if we take this measurement here and we have 48 49 46 give or take percent off a crash again and as I said we didn’t expect it but we said if we break down this is what it’s about to happen and while we were surprised even because this last man standing here this 200 week moving average should actually act as a better support if it held for 10 years. However guys of this specific year moving average year breaking to the downside this was at least the one predictor which held its truth. However guys and now the question is is this the lowest price for bitcoin is three thousand six hundred eighty three U.S. dollars actually the low now for bitcoin Well we can take some unseen data for that as you know we are in love with on trend data because it is much more accurate than technical indicators you have seen them failing over and over again and especially for Bitcoin which is pretty much unpredictable here especially for the immediate short term. However guys we talked about the net unrealized profit and loss a lot of times. This one is taking data directly from the Bitcoin block chain. This is by the way glass not we have an affiliate link down below. You can use the free version yourself if you are a retail trader. That might be the best thing. They have a small advanced option actually also. If you just go here to our pin comment you can find it over there. But of course just feel free to use the free version if you are not so much into that especially if you want to test it out. However this one is calculating directly from the Beacon block chain the net unrealized profits and also the net unrealized losses and it’s overlaying them to each other and seeing what the ratio is. And whenever we actually when the optimism phase which usually should act as an indicator for an upcoming bull run but we broke it to the downside we actually went down here to hope and feel you can see it here in the legend. And if we zoom in a little bit more here maybe in the year 2019 and 2020 you can see that we went down here and we actually skipped the hope and the fear. But the most important point. Let’s zoom in a little bit more. Guys look at this. We went into the capitalization area and the capitulation area means that the net unrealized losses are by a magnitude higher than the net unrealized profits. Remember what we said like multiple times on our channel. The market is designed to take the most amount of money from the most amount of people most of the time. We didn’t expect that dump but this dump actually had one good thing. It wiped out weak hands and also nonbelievers and we went into that capitulation phase. We want to see a capitulation phase especially for buyer and trees for the long term. If we zoom out again a little bit to get a better picture here. Let’s zoom out here to 2014 2015. We can see that always when we went below into the capitulation phase this was the exact moment we were actually bottoming out the first time we went into the capitulation phase. We didn’t have to wait long either the law came immediately or within the short amount of time. However there is a small bearish news to it because always when we went in there capitulation phase the market took some time to recover. Let’s zoom in a little bit. You can see it right here. Whenever we went into that very bearish capitulation phase here we saw a few month of consolidation we didn’t went down anymore. Not frequently but we saw a few months of consolidation the same thing happened actually here 2000 and 18 beginning of 2019 when we hit the three thousand one hundred fifty US dollar low. We went into the capitulation facie according to the untrained metrics and then we had a longer period of consolidation the market took some time to recover but the returns afterwards were always massively outsized guys. And this is what we want to bring to your opinion. We are zooming out we are looking at the bigger picture supported by data from the big blotch and this is why we are M.M. crypto. This is why we are bringing that to you here as one of the only ones in this space. We think this is significantly important and goes there is a second one and this one is in our opinion also extremely important. This is the long term holding spent output profit ratio. We talked about the spent opera profit ratio a lot of times it shows you actually also from the become block chain when the majority of traders and holders are an average trading in a profit or in a loss. And the OTOH this one here. This means the long term holder spent Oprah profit ratio and this is revolutionary. You can scroll down here and see what it means. And they are actually saying that the long term holder as O P R is S O P R that takes into account only spent outputs with a lifespan of one hundred fifty five days and serves as an indicator to assess the behavior of long term investors and everything below 155 days every bit on which I hold in a lower timeframe of one hundred fifty five days. This is going into the short term as all PR which we could also choose but which I don’t like to use so much and we actually got ourself here the profession of the cone. And now let’s check it out guys. You can see that this one was warning us already earlier. The other one was wanting us in November 2018 and this one here the long term holder is up here whenever it’s above the horizontal line here. You know that the average long term holder is trading and holding in a profit whenever this one is going negative. You know we are entering a severe long consolidation phase and bear market and we are not saying that we are entering a massively long bear market because also the huffing is coming up. Things are different right now but what we want to tell you whenever we went below and even besides the short term holders the long term holders are also trading and holding in a loss as you can see it here over such a long timeframe. This was also an area where you could buy and have long term outsized returns and now we want to zoom in here into the year of 2019 and 2020 and what you can see here let’s zoom in you can see we were actually supported by the break even point of the long term holder spent output profit ratio a couple of times also before but once we know eventually broke it to the downside. Let me zoom in a little bit more. We broke 2 to the downside and this means that even the long term holders the vast majority of the long term holders not the speculators not the traders the people holding the bitcoin in their cold storages for a long time. Half a year to ten years even these people are on average holding and trading in a loss right now. And you guys I mean let me zoom out to 2016 until today. If we are zooming out of that timeframe Let me zoom out even longer here. 2014 you can see that always when we were below this was creating outsized returns. It does not mean we are not dumping another thousand another 2000 dollars. Maybe we are getting to that gap car from the moon was talking about three thousand five hundred US dollars but this wouldn’t change the story because this would be only a small week below. If you buy at five thousand and we will be larger to three thousand five hundred. Is that really so bad. If we are one month after what at six seven eight thousand already for the long term this is extremely interesting. And now I want to know from you guys we’ve been talking with da Vinci Jeff 15 about a bullish price target about a bearish price hike as well about the bullish one in case we hold above the 200 week moving average which we talked about previously here in the beginning of the video. It is this blue line here in case we hold a buffet the chance to significantly increase that we see until the end of the year after people lose their trust a little bit more in the fiat currencies which might happen towards the September timeframe then we still can reach a price target of fourteen thousand U.S. dollars. Do you think that’s possible. Let us know in the poll which is popping up on top of the screen right now and say yes or no to fourteen thousand US dollars and we are of course already expecting more than 50 percent saying no that’s not possible and that’s completely okay. And you might be right but we want to see the overall sentiment. Thank you so much for that guys and also we have some news. We are still trading on buy but in our opinion babe it is the best exchange out there because they have one of highest liquidity they have an amazing customer support. A very good engine. So we are many trading over there. You can get a 90 dollar bonus with that link but also a lot of people are talking about fee mix. We checked it out and we have to say it is it is not a bad exchange. It is a good exchange. We will keep an eye on it. We check the team behind. And so far everything looks fine. Let’s check it out how it goes however if you want to make your own account there click that link you can get up to seventy two dollars for free. It is just meant as some kind of risk diversification if you want to have more options. If you want to spread your trading them on different exchanges and you can put in your e-mail address and your password over there up to seventy two dollars in bonus and get the unique selling proposition of this specific exchanges you have a sub account and you can have a long position open you can have a short position open you can have different leverage positions open not only one position at a time and you can also trade trade training and some other old content. It was the reason why we actually onboarding them here to our program why we started using them and also on the sidelines. However by bit is our main exchanges still. And yeah let’s just see how it goes however guys thank you so much for watching. Remind yourself please on giving us a light. We want to get to 2000 likes today in today’s video. So thank you so much for watching and we see each other very very soon. Already tomorrow the next one. And I’m Christine as always guys as always. Bye.


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