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Here’s why the Bitcoin halving could be priced in | Why we have a higher chance of $3k BTC vs. $10k

VIDEO TRANSCRIPT


Hey, good morning, everyone. Happy Monday. It’s April 20th and we’re starting a new week here. Let’s get to the Bitcoin analysis real quick. All right. So first things first. It looks like we went from the high of seventy-two hundred dollars to down to seven thousand flat pretty much overnight. All right. And in terms of key levels to watch out for, it actually did come down to a pretty key level for me, which was this seven thousand ninety-seven marker.


OK. So if we look over here, this marker right here, this high actually came down to that same level. And I was hoping that just like we did over here and over here. You know, I wanted it to, I guess, push up from here because yesterday it looked like we were creating a mini inverse head and shoulders on the 50-minute timeframe. It looked like something like this. And even though this kind of fell through, I was hoping that this could push us up further.


It looks like that didn’t happen then. In fact, what we really did was sort of collapse down overnight. OK. And so, as I said, you could see that seven thousand ninety-seven markets right here, pretty much broken. OK. At least on a smaller timeframe. All right. Now, what we need to gauge and assess is are restarting our next leg down or are we simply just consolidating in this area? The reason I’m a little bit more careful over here is that if you look at this period of movement consolidation, it’s very analogous to this whole chop right here that we saw.


It was very wild of fall time movement right here. And then we finally broke out. OK. Our community was actually in a long over here from seventy-one twenty-five. I think actually we grabbed it over here somewhere and then we had a stop set for seven thousand seventy. And you could see right here, you know, we took that long and we got stopped. OK. So, you know, it is part of the game. And we understand if this trade were to be left as-is and we left, the long chances are, I mean, we could be coming down a little bit further.


So either way, we could get a lower entry or it’s a possibility that we might get stopped out lower because our stop was initially actually further down here below this low. OK.


So the reason we try to move our stops with the way price is moving with momentum is because that either secures your ability to lose little or also secure profit. All right. So this is one reason, you know, the cup disarming community. We tried to minimize our losses as much as we can. As you can see, we barely missed out on an up 40, I guess. Forty-five or fifty dollars move right there. You know, so.


Point is, when you are able to contain your losses, you’re going to do far better in the trading landscape. OK. So let’s get back to it. OK. So another thing that we’re seeing right now is if you look at this big descending trend line right here. OK. So remember this big descending trend line that comes from this middle of actually middle of February way have over here. Right. You can see we’re still well above that trend line right now.


OK. So the fact that we’re above that trend line and we haven’t really smashed through the weekly open on a daily timeframe, we are under it on a couple of hourly time frames on the smaller time frames. This is a good sign. It is a good sign in terms of. Shorting. OK. But on the larger time frames, we start to go on the 4:00 hour and stuff. It’s still a bit uncertain exactly what Price wants to do, because like I said, this consolidation period is very similar to this one where it’s a wild movement up and down and then we finally push up.


OK, now we did a video yesterday for our numbers. You can actually go check this out on YouTube.


And we talked about the pivotal week ahead for the stock market. The oil markets and the bond markets to go check this out on YouTube. We just put this up yesterday. And basically what we’re seeing right now is just an aggressive, aggressive sell-off in the oil. OK. You can see right now. I mean, last night when I shut down for the night, it was around $15. And we’ve now dropped another, I think, 10 to 18 percent.


So since last night’s open, OK, we’re down now. So since last night, crude open, we’re down now almost twenty-nine percent. This is absolutely nuts because remember, as I said before, oil is a big part of the American economy as well as the global economy. OK. So oil getting crushed. It’s going to be a significant impact on the stock market. All right. At some point, it’s going to start impacting the stock market because it’s only because not only going to start affecting jobs, which again, the oil markets employ about eight to nine million people in America.


It’s about a percent of the total GDP in America. But not only is it going to start impacting jobs. It’s going to start dragging the market down, too. OK. Because remember, oil exposure has a lot of banks associated with it. So if the oil is going down and companies are filing bankruptcy or they cannot pay back their loans or they default on their loans, that’s on the balance sheet of. Banks. OK. So if oil starts going down, banks get hit and banks start getting hit.


Other people in the economy, other businesses and even the federal government is going to get hit. The point is, I mean, it’s all tied together. All right. And we actually explain this in our analysis from yesterday. You can go check this out on YouTube or if you want, you can go and read about this on medium as well. We wrote in an article about it at the Alpha Trade. Remember, we’ve rebranded folks from crypto Somnath to Alpha Trades.


Now, you know, I think it’s a great rebrand because we’ve now switched over from just doing different analysis to forex equities options and oil. And then we’re going to try to consider adding gold as well soon. So all these things are related. OK. And our community does a fantastic job at explaining to you how these markets are related, what you can look out for a day to day basis. Remember that Bitcoin is not the same uncorrelated asset that it used to be.


OK. It doesn’t get to move on its own. In fact, it’s completely run by how the stock market moves, whether it moves up or down. So now that it moves the way it does with the equity markets, it’s best to understand how equity markets move. And this is one thing that Fassel and I have been doing for years. So we understand a good amount of how equities move. So for us, it becomes very easy to understand how Bitcoin is going to move.


So we’ve pretty much warned our members that they, for the most part, we still have a short bias. OK. It doesn’t matter what price is doing right now. Just remember the bigger picture, which is that if we start looking at the larger timeframes on the S&P 500 over here. All right. If we start looking at it this way, we are doing nothing but approaching the 6 1 8 feet, which is the golden pocket area. All right.


And we’ve hit pretty much key resistance right there. All right. Just last Friday, you know, the news is already starting to stack up with more unemployment numbers, more small businesses going out of business, declaring bankruptcy. Even larger corporations like Neiman Marcus was considering bankruptcy. J.C. Penney, Winning’s Petroleum a declared bankruptcy two weeks ago. So you see the bankruptcies are piling up. All right. And that’s going to eventually start impacting the economy. The market just can’t keep going up.


It doesn’t matter how much stimulus the Fed throws, it doesn’t matter. OK. At some point, the market will come back down to earth because no matter how much money the Fed prints. The reality is the situation is going to sink into the market. OK. So the fact of the matter is we still got a bearish five, but that doesn’t mean we blindly short, you know, every move. OK. We wait for the technicals to play up.


We wait for the perfect moment to strike. And that’s essentially when we’re going to consider going short again. All right. And you can read all about this on our trading view or even our medium articles. You know, I put out a lot of free content, folks. You know, I hope you guys really like and enjoy our content. I hope you get the thumbs up because it does take a lot of energy and effort to do so.


And just, you know, hitting the subscribe button, hitting the like button, leaving us a comment, does great things for our community. You know, it helps bring in members into our advantage side. And this is where we have the paid analysis. You know, tons of information, the paid side where we have evening analysis, where we let our community members like exactly what we’re seeing in the market, multiple updates through the day to let people know exactly where our thoughts are.


We even put out a forex trade just yesterday mentioning how the European markets are doing. And I want to touch upon that a little bit. Here’s the thing. Right. Fifty fifteen to twenty percent of all employment in Greece, Spain and Italy and Portugal is directly linked to tourism. Obviously, all those things are suffering now. Right. So on top of that whole for these countries are severely cash strapped, specifically Italy, which is really on the brink of default.


If Italy defaults, that means Netherlands and Germany, which are the strongest economies in the eurozone, are going to get hit harder again. The eurozone is already struggling. So I have no doubt that it’s going to be a very, very tough battle for the eurozone in the coming week or weeks ahead. Oil specifically, as I said, you can see Western Canadian select oil is now trading at negative prices. Basically, that’s like saying, hey, you don’t take these oil barrels off our hands because we can’t even afford to store them.


So you can see oil across the board. All right. It’s getting hit hard doubly. Futures, like I said earlier. What I showed you over U.S. oil, those are down also about 18 percent overnight. OK. And then U.S. airlines can’t fire anyone till September 30th. Under the terms of 50 billion dollar government bailout. But they still plan on cutting almost a hundred thousand jobs. So you could see that the pain is pretty much imminent for most people.


Right. And it’s really sad because, you know, we know people in the energy and oil sector. You know, we know people, or we have friends or family who work in the airline business. But at some point, you will know someone will be unemployed who will not be able to maybe feed themselves. They might have to go into government assistance programs. And this is why I urge you guys to learn about what’s happening in the market. Come join our community, watch and read our updates and trade with us and understand how to take advantage of a market like this.


OK. Because ultimately it’s going to pay off whether now or even in the future. All right. It’s at some point, remember, the market is going to go up. Right. We understand that the American economy is very strong. But you want to be prepared. You want to understand, you know, how to trade in the market if you have to. Again, we can’t give you financial advice. Right. We can show you exactly how Fassel and I are trading and how we’re making money in this market.


That’s the best we can do for you. OK. So with that being said, you know, make sure you come joining with the crypto Sonya Web site. And again, we’ve rebranded, but we haven’t actually quite taken our Web site over to the Alpha Trades Web site. So you can go to Crypto Salmi ICOM, get the products page right there and join Advantage membership. And remember, we are going to start changing prices, folks, from ninety-seven to one twenty-five starting May 5th because we’re now including forex options, oil and equities.


All right. So let’s get back to it. Let’s get back to the analysis. OK. So another thing that I want to mention to you all is if we start looking at the daily fibs, write this down just a little bit. OK. So from this high to this low. Right. Guess we’re close to that golden pocket of 6, 1 8 and 65 percent. And that’s about seventy-eight. I mean nine hundred dollars all the way to about eighty-one hundred dollars.


OK. So that’s about, you know, nine hundred dollars from where we are essential. All right. So this is one reason why I’m a little bit cautious that. All right. I don’t really know if I want to short yet until I see one hour, four-hour showing strength to the downside. I also want to see the equities markets starting to break down. And then I don’t mind shorting. Then I would probably say this movement right here is kind of like a double top, almost analogous to this one right here.


OK. So that’s kind of what I’m waiting on right now. And I’ll let my advantage members know exactly what I do. But I urge you guys to be a bit cautious, you know, in terms of blindly longing in this environment. Know everyone, their mother out there is talking about the having effect and all that garbage. But I could probably say with at least 70 percent confidence that either the having is priced in or it already priced in the way up here.


And this is just the reverberations of an oversold market when we went down so hard, so fast. So this is really your, you know, maybe dead cat bounce. It has nothing to do with the having coming up. This is just a dead cat bounce. Really, the miners, maybe major players across the board might be trying to get out of this particular area. OK. Just be careful about, you know, the whole narrative about having Bitcoin has to go up and all that jazz because, you know, to be honest, this is the time for Bitcoin to thrive.


OK. Bitcoin was built for times like this where governments across the border printing money. Governments across the border doing awful shit where they cannot contain their local or national economies. So if bitcoin doesn’t thrive now, chances are it’s going much lower. OK.


It doesn’t mean it’s useless. It just means that its value is far less. OK. And as I’ve told my members before, that it is very, very possible that bitcoin could go down to three thousand or two thousand. I know those numbers sound crazy, but just remember, those numbers also sounded crazy when, you know, we were at ten thousand five hundred and then we went down to three thousand six hundred in less than two weeks. Three weeks, actually.


OK. So just remember that these markets are volatile. The times that we’re living in are unprecedented times and really anything can happen. But we keep our advantage members, you know, updated with the information and analysis as much as we can. Even my. Twitter. You know, I put out a ton of information showing you guys exactly what I’m reading, what I’m looking at. And you can see what’s happening in the real economy. Aside from the stock market, you can see the unemployment numbers.


You can see more and more companies laying off people. You can see what’s happening with oil. You can see what experts are talking about. You know, Jim Bianco, my favourite analyst. He said the next five days are the most critical period in the U.S. financial history. Said it says that the stock market expert who profited in 1987 and 2008 crisis even over here, you know, got the stock portfolio of companies with relatively little debt, lost seven point nine percent last month versus a portfolio highly indebted companies, which plunged twenty-one point two percent.


That’s Goldman Sachs data. So what this is basically saying is, you know, companies are over-levered higher debt, are really paying the price and really suffering. And Bitcoin is actually one of those fields that is a highly credit-based, credit-based environment or not the environment, I guess a credit-based asset class. Because remember that, you know, miners themselves need a price to stay higher. Just to be able to pay off their bills because their bills will start piling up or they may already have bills.


Well, there’s electricity, whether it’s a debt from their mining machines, know whatever they need for four coolers and stuff to keep their specific area cool from the mining equipment heating up the area. All this stuff costs money. Right. And so if the management of the product itself or the stock itself costs money, at some point those costs are going to outweigh the revenue that’s coming in. And then when that happens and when a majority of the miners get hit, they have to sell.


And, you know, no matter what you want to say, miners or some of the biggest people who hold the supply, if miners start to suffer due to price, that means the structure is a whole of bitcoin will slowly start chipping away in terms of prices start collapsing faster than most can imagine. Which is kind of what happened here? You know, when we went from eight thousand down to thirty-six hundred dollars in less than 24 hours or so right here, no one imagined that could happen.


That’s what happens, though, when miners are really stretched out. OK, so you want to be careful. All right. Let me see here. All right. So, again, as I said, we’re still above this descending trend line that we broke out of. But that doesn’t mean we’re out of the woods. OK. If we look at the price in terms of one level at a time, like I said, this key area right here, let’s give it this real quick.


All right. Let’s go to the hourly timeframe. OK. If we start seeing that seven thousand seventy is turning into resistance. OK. Does something like that. And then it starts breaking down past, at least in this key level right here, which is down sixty-nine hundred dollars and it does something like this. I think that’s your shorting opportunity with the stock above here. And you could start writing this down towards six, seven, six thousand five hundred seventy-five or so and then all of all the way down to six thousand two hundred at the very least.


OK. That’s what I’d be doing personally. I can’t give you guys financial advice, but, you know, I could tell you guys exactly what I will be doing in our advantage by the community. So make sure you guys come join. OK. Ninety-seven. You’ll be grandfathered in for ninety-seven dollars per month. Your rates will not change. But unless you join after May 5th and then it will be one twenty-five. All right. Give me a thumbs up if you enjoy our content, folks.


Hit the subscribe button. Join the advantage membership and I’ll catch up with you all soon. All right.


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