Is this the Bitcoin top? | Prepare for a volatile May | Near term vs. long term outlook!


Good morning, everyone. Happy Thursday. It’s seven twenty eight a.m. and today I’m here to do a crypto and bitcoin analysis. All right, so first things first. Again, I have stated before that we were previously known as Crypto Somnia community, and now we are the alpha trades community. All right. So we’ve rebranded since and with our new brand, we’ve now got multiple different asset classes where we show equities analysis right here, daily equities updates, stock alerts, Stockler record, stock of the day, top growth stocks and then the stock market check. We also have forex trades. We have commodities trades as well as options in equity markets as well as Bitcoin markets. So aside from crypto, we’ve branched off into multiple areas that myself and Fassel, our other analyst, is heavily trading in these markets and we show you guys exactly how we are trading. So, for example, I can give you guys a quick snippet of excuse me, our dollar yen trade. All right. So we can go to that real quick. So here was our Darrian trader there. All right. So we actually took a short trigger right there. All right. I expect this to keep consolidating. I actually took profit on the street right here near the bottom because I think there’s going to be maybe a mini short squeeze up. And I want to get back into that trade again. But if this keeps consolidating and then it starts breaking down that aisle, then I’ll take the trade again towards these target profit markers right here. OK. So this is one trade that I’ve been following for a few days now, almost actually a week and a half. So I’m pretty excited that this thing has already played out the way I wanted it to. All right. So this is one of our forex trades. And if you keep scrolling, you know, you can see tons of different trades where we’ve yielded profit and we showed people exactly how we’ve gotten into trades and showed people what exactly we are trading and how we’re trading. OK. And back to crypto again. Obviously, you guys know unless you’re living under a rock. We had a big blow off top and crypto just yesterday went all the way from, I think eight thousand or something, all the way to about ninety five hundred dollars in the last 24, 36 hours or so. Now we’re back down into the eighty eight eighty nine hundred dollar territory. So let’s dig into that and figure out why we’re in there. OK. So this is probably a good representation. All right, gentlemen, turn off this volume right here. So yesterday in this area right here, our community actually took out a breakout long from here, all the way to, I think 90 to twenty five or so. So let’s check that out right there. OK. So you can see right here. OK. I talked about this current move right here, and that was this candle. So I’ll show you guys exactly what candle that was. That was this candle right here. OK. Which is a big spike up. But then it came back, drove prices all the way down to eighty eight twenty. But then it started taking off. Right. So this is where we went along. Real quick. Took a quick position at eighty nine forty. Got out at ninety two. Twenty five. And I think as soon as it hit 90 to twenty five. Right. About this area right here. Dumped really fast. Right. So luckily we were able to secure gains. But obviously after that I went up further. Now the interesting thing about it going up further is here’s how I look at it. OK. So if you look at this movement to the upside right here, you can see the bigger Kando sizes, right? Bigger bodies over here. You can see them slowly inching up and inching up. OK. This kind of tells me that, OK, the price is actually grinding up. It’s not blowing through things impulsively. Kind of like this is right. These are impulsive move. And this is a slow grinding. So it’s somewhat impulsive. It’s slow, small candles. Right. And then after that, once it reached this level right here, you could see I mean, it was a clear top right here, base based around, you know, this candle right here just showing exaction. The falling ones start to show exhaustion as well. This one was, you know, buyers not able to sustain the selling. That’s why you see these big Wick’s to the downside and selling, selling, selling. And then more and more selling. OK. So if I was awake, I would have somewhat shorted right around this area right here or on any two hundred or ninety three hundred dollars, probably would have wrote it down maybe till the middle of this block right here, which is this previous consolidation. OK. But right now I’m not in a trade. OK. So here’s how I see what’s happened so far. And here’s how you can look at it. All right. So check this out. OK. If we just stretched out that previous channel that we had. Right. So just like that. OK. And that was initially. The trading range before we put up. So all we have to do is just stretch this out. See just see if it actually holds up to the previous channel. And lo and behold, you can see it’s doing exactly its job. This previous trading range from this side of the slow. We came back into that same trading range, this high and this low right there. This now, we can say, was a clear deviation of this larger trading range. OK, so the fact that we’re trading in this area. All right. This kind of tells me that this is probably maybe just a big push up. Maybe the Bears wanted to get their higher asks filled and actually mentioned this and the advantage side yesterday that there was a lot of absorption that I was seeing in there. There’s like a fifteen or twenty million dollar wall right there, around ninety three hundred dollars. Actually was over here and this candle pressed up through it, but it wasn’t able to break it. So it actually ripped through that wall somehow wasn’t able to break that kind of. Told me that there’s actually a lot more sellers and maybe even passive sellers who are having their assets filled. OK. So what that does is it helps you understand that that kind of market condition when this was happening right here. That was a candle that was showing you trading like I should. I can go back and show you again. This was the particular candle that I was looking at right here. This one that pushed up really strongly. Actually, no, I think it was this one right here. OK. So in this particular candle right here, when we we’re looking at that. All right. This case right here. Those ninety three hundred dollars or. What the heck is it? Oh, yes, it is this one right here on ninety three hundred dollars. That had a 17 to 20 million dollar cell wall. OK. And because that wall was not able to get chipped and then we had a big selling happen that told me that there was some bigger sellers than there were any big deal in terms of buyers. OK. So that was the first indication of understanding that, OK, maybe the sellers are really strong up here. OK. So fact of the matter is. Right. I think the sellers were really strong up here. They allowed the price to come back up here again and then crushed it back down. OK. That’s essentially what happened. But now we’re back inside the trading range. And now you need to understand what happens in this trading range. Well, so far, you know, again, we’re hitting the high of this area right here. That’s a very high possibility that we could break up from here again. OK. But this kind of tells me that when this happened right here and then we came back inside the trading range. All right. I think that’s a bearish sign, at least for now. And until we get out of this trading range and start pushing up higher, I think we’re going to stay contained in this trading range. Possibly even making another leg down here. And then maybe making it back up if possible. OK. It’s also very possible that from here we kind of just start dropping down from this trading range. OK. Which would be another short opportunity. If you break the trading range and you place, you know, short once the breakdown happens, OK? And then you can have your stop here or a deeper stop up here. OK. But for now, I’m not going to enter a trade. I’ll let my advantage members know exactly what I do. Obviously, that’s something that we always do. If you want to be a part of that and you want to see these kinds of trades happen where we show you exactly know where we enter trades, how how the reasoning was or what the reasoning was to enter the trade. And then I tell people exactly where I close my position. You can go to the advantage membership right here on the crypto Somnia Web site at the products page joined the advantage membership. And this is how the information will be provided for you. And this is an investment advice. I’m basically just showing you exactly what I’m doing. OK. And if you want to follow, you can follow. Same thing in the other communities, folks, you know, and even in the forex channel right here, like I showed you. Right. I mean, I showed my entry. I shall my exaction, my profit. I show you trade. Close the previous sale. So explain to people why I’m taking profit, why I’m cutting Xpress percent of the position, et cetera. OK. So these are all the things that you get with the advantage of membership. Right. And currently it’s ninety seven per month. Next week, May 5th, is going to increase to one twenty five. If you don’t join before that, you may have to pay a higher price. So make sure you join before that price hike. OK. Because currently it’s discounted almost about twenty five percent because we’ve included so many different channels. We figured that we might as well give people more content for the current price. And, you know, grandfather people into the current rate. OK. All right. Going back to the analysis. So first things first. As you can see, you know, trading range is still established, right? It’s very possible that we could from here break up. But you want to wait for the breakout. You don’t want to be trading just on piddling movements up and down. At this then test support right here. That’s your trade right there. Stop over here. And then you can ride this up towards these previous highs right here. OK. But I don’t know what’s going to happen at this trading range. OK. And we’re going to watch how this thing resolves. All right. Until then, I probably say it’s best to watch this consolidation play itself out, figure out if Price wants to go up or push down. Right. Today is the end of the month. All right. So do be careful. There have been crazy shenanigans that typically happen near month end time. All right. Obviously, the Daily Canel looks really bad. And, you know, one of the reasons why we picked ninety two twenty five with the trade I just showed you as profit is because this market right here, as you can see right there. All right. That’s about the 90 to twenty five level right there. The higher this market. OK, so you can see the higher right there. You can see it right up here. Right. Ninety two. Twenty four point five. So that’s one of the reasons why I took profit. Ninety two. Twenty five. I had no idea how much higher is going to push, but obviously taking profit nine to twenty five. Help me get out the trade and avoid this garbage right here. OK. This movement. So this is the difference between traders who are just blindly longing and they try to hold onto their position whenever they want to because they’re greedy versus taking profit consistently and realizing your profit, realizing your profit is by far the most important thing. OK. So fact of the matter is, we realized our profit and now we’re just kind of sitting and waiting. All right. Now, if we’re looking at obviously this deal, scandal definitely looks horrible, especially if it closes as is in today’s month, then I could possibly see, you know, some more downside coming our way over the next several days. OK. So just be careful on something like that. I know things have moved up really aggressively over the past several days. But, you know, again, don’t get caught up in the noise of this kind of moving. All right. I’ve stated before that even though Bitcoin has made this kind of drastic movement, I still do believe that Bitcoin can make another leg down to the downside over the next several days or several weeks. OK, because I do believe that Bitcoin is still in its consolidation period and in near term, it’s still in a in a bear market, because if you look at it from 20 K top, that’s a high. That’s a lower, high, lower, high, lower, high. And now we might be putting in another, but we’re hot. OK. So we haven’t really changed a structure. And even over here. I mean, this base was broken right here. This was the key low. The only good thing was this was a higher low. But then that got broken because then we put in a lower low. OK. But yet we still have this kind of higher level. Right. So technically a positive sign sense. But again, this low right here was key because that helped us push towards ten thousand five hundred in February. That got broken all the way down to three thousand six hundred right there. So I know people are out there who talk about ten thousand call thousand bitcoin. Just be careful is all I’m saying. OK, I am still bearish and I’m going to stick to that unless bitcoin gives me and prints me a higher hat. Give me like a eleven or twelve thousand bitcoin and then I’m bullish. And then we will have escaped this ascending trend line that will have been resistant. We will have escaped as descending trend line, which is currently resistance, as you can see. And then if we get past this trend line right here, all bets are off. All right. Bitcoin could easily hit 20 K or even higher. Remember, this is the larger consolidation period that you see. You know, this is really the real consolidation that you need to pay attention to like that. OK. It’s a big you know, it looks like a big bull pendant, which is a good sign for Bitcoin. But what people do understand is we can actually go down from here still, maybe even hit a higher low right there, around four thousand or four thousand two hundred and still be bullish. And one of my takes is that we can actually go even further down. OK. So let’s take the weekly perspective. Right. I’ve talked about this before. You know, for those of you on the advantage side, those people know exactly I’m talking about. We can still hit this key high rate here in November 2013. This consolidation in March 2017. And we can still come back all the way down here. And Bitcoin could still be great, folks. It could still be a great investment because over the next several years, it could still go back up towards ten thousand. Twenty thousand. You know, the I would probably say everyone who has bought into this period I’m sorry. Since 2000, 17 or 16, everyone who has bought into this period has a very high chance of losing their bitcoin to people who bought way down here, because remember people who bought way down here, even if prices come down to this level, they’re not underwater. They’re either break, even if that’s if you bought way at this high rate or they’re still in profit. For those who bought, you know, this big consolidation period, especially those who bought way back here, are way in profit. So point is that the only people who are going to get washed out are the people, the real day traders and the speculators in this area right here. And I understand that you and I watching this video are day traders and speculators. But at least we understand that this can happen to us. The real blind people are the ones that deny the reality that it can’t happen to them. And then they get washed out a market with pretty much all their money down here. Right. And they sell at losses or they get liquidated or something bad happens. OK, so that’s that’s the point, right. There’s there’s three different phases to this market right now. If you look at it, there’s this phase right here where it is a super early adopters. There’s this phase right here. You know, it’s the medium term to early adopters. And then there’s this phase right here, which is the laggards right here. Right. So the laggards are the only ones who are so hell bent on Bitcoin succeeding because all they’ve ever really known was, you know, in 2016 17 and price went up all the way into parabolic fashion. It’s like a high that they’re always chasing and they haven’t gotten it yet. So the only thing that they can do is push the timeline into the future and keep saying, well, someday Bitcoin is going to hit, you know, twenty thousand a forty thousand one hundred thousand. Just just saying ridiculous numbers, whatever they can on crypto. Footer, because they want to get people excited that, hey, this is for you, really cheap to buy. OK. But in fact, it’s really not. People don’t know the difference between the value and, you know, how expensive things are because they don’t understand in terms of technicals or fundamentals how things are gauged as expensive or cheap in this case right here. OK. This to me could be a very expensive buy. Given the current economic conditions, because if this thing tanks down all the way here, I would probably say these people are pretty much unfazed and they’re not going to be selling a big one. Right. The real, real smart money is going to accumulate, probably weighed on here. OK, so this is why I believe that in this area right here, between thousand dollars and about 13 to 14 hundred dollars, that could be the real sweet spot of buying Bitcoin at a very cheap price. OK. And you went. You might be in the league of those who bought down here. And here’s the thing. Right. If you buy down here from, let’s just say fifteen hundred dollars. Right. And save from fifteen hundred or so dollars right there. Right. Price goes back up to 5000. You just make two hundred forty five percent on that. That’s an amazing steal. Right. The fact that you can make, you know, two hundred forty five percent on something like that versus from here where you buy right now a two hundred forty five percent climb from here. All right. We’ll see how far that is. OK. That’s about to her, I guess. Twenty nine thousand dollars. Right. So twenty nine thousand dollars is what you need to go from here all the way back up versus if prices come down here, you know, it’s much easier for price to go from fifteen hundred five thousand versus eight thousand or nine thousand to twenty nine thousand. Right. Because remember, you have to be you have to be cognizant, aware of how the average person’s mind operates as well as even institutions. Right. Why would they be paying twenty eight twenty nine thousand dollars for a coin. That doesn’t really have real world usage. Now, I’m not saying that Bitcoin can never be worth that much. But is it worth that much right now? Not really. Can it be worth that much in the future? Maybe. But Bitcoin functions the same way, whether it’s at fifteen hundred dollars or it’s at thirty thousand. That’s the key difference that most people don’t want you to understand or tell you. Is that importance the same way, whether it’s ten dollars or one hundred or ten thousand. Right. The only reason it has intrinsic value right now that is so much greater than its utility value is because people think that this is a scarce asset and they want to get into it because they’re somehow thinking that this is going to replace fiat currency or the whole world’s going to fall apart or the financial system is not going to fall apart. Basically, what they’re hoping for is something that’s never happened before in the history of existence, which is the entire financial system collapses. Right. So far. Yeah. It’s possible that the financial system is getting weaker and weaker. But that doesn’t mean that Bitcoin is going to be the savior. All right. So that’s a point you’re basically hoping for not only two things, right? Financial system, the collapse and bitcoin to replace that in some way somehow to be the key asset or the key replacement currency. So you can see the hopes and dreams of most people are way out there. Right. And again, is nothing wrong with having hopes and dreams of, you know, an amazing asset like Bitcoin, which is a decentralized system, helping you build a currency that’s out of government‘s control. But the real reality of it is and realistically, it’s just not anywhere close to that. We’re not anywhere close to the end times right now. Right. All Bitcoin is really giving to most people is hope and speculation that prices could go much higher and your precious bitcoin could be worth a lot more. Well, it really gives a shit about financial systems collapsing. All they care about is, you know, making more money. Right. Let’s be real. OK. So the fact of the matter is the people who have bought way down here are significantly in profit. OK. And either they’ve taken profit and they sold to average retailers or probably going to buy the top like they always do. And then they’ll probably sell way at the bottom like they always do. OK. So just be careful of the noise that you’re hearing. All right. So the point is, I still do believe I still do believe that Bitcoin can make its leg down all the way back towards four thousand, maybe even three thousand and all the way to what I showed you, which is about a thousand at three thousand four thousand two thirteen hundred dollars. I might be totally wrong. From here, we might just take off. And that’s great. You know, I will buy once the breakout happens, if we actually climb above eleven or twelve thousand dollars. But until then, I’m still going to be making money. Here’s a difference, right? Most people think that just because I have, you know, this this burish perspective, which is. One of many perspectives that I don’t ever take long. Well, here’s me taking along, making money and showing you that I made money, right. So that’s a differences. People often think that you have to have one set of mindset and you’re always going to stick to that and you’re never going to make trades in the opposite direction. A trader doesn’t really care what what direction that price goes into. All right. All I care about is that there’s volatility involved and that there are certain technicals or fundamentals that I can follow to get involved in the trade. Those are the only things that matter. I don’t really care if Bitcoin ever makes it to one hundred thousand. Nor do I care if it makes it down to a thousand, OK. Of course I would love it for it. For it to make it to a hundred thousand dollars. And I know a lot of other people would. But the fact of the matter is, for now, it’s still a very nascent asset. And given the economic conditions we’re in. It might behoove you to be a little bit more careful in thinking that, you know, this might be the asset that you need to put all your eggs into one basket. OK, so all I’m saying is be careful and you know that kind of thinking. All right. Anyway, as I say that you can see in the smaller term Bitcoin, it’s coming down to the IQ of this trading range. I expect a bit of a bounce around this area. Maybe, you know, Wick’s down a little bit more and push it back up here. We want to see. What happens in this particular range like this right here. So you have this kind of created higher lows and kept banging on this resistance at this high right here. We want to see that again if we’re supposed to be bullish and try to push back up. What we’ve probably what we’re probably gonna see is something like this. You know, a tightening up and price action and then trying to push out of it. But if we see something like this right, and we poke down and we go up like this, then this is probably a sign that, you know, we’re going to start to break down from this channel. Right. OK. But obviously, that hasn’t happened yet. And you don’t say I’m going to keep an eye on this. I’m going to warn my advantage numbers, everything that I’m seeing. And if you’re part of the community, you know exactly the way I look at things. You know, I have a pretty, pretty humble perspective on how I look at assets. I try not to be too bearish or too bullish. And you don’t. We worked really hard in the community. We put out Tuesday analysis every single day, multiple updates every single day. And then on top of that, we let communities know or rather, you know, people in the community know exactly what we’re positioned in, how we’re looking at the market can answer questions whenever you have them, whenever you have them. You know, I always try to do my best to get to the questions. Or you can message one of our mods right here, too. OK. So that’s it, folks. I hope you guys give me a thumbs up for my analysis. Shoot me a comment on your thoughts where you think Bitcoin is going to be next week, next month. Next year. All right. Until then, yeah. Shoot me. Shoot me a comma. Give me a thumbs up and join our advantage membership before the membership prices go up. All right. Products page to Somnia website. Get the advantage subscription. All right. You’ll take care. Have a great rest. Your Thursday. Cheers.


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