Raoul Pal Makes His Bitcoin Price Prediction | Is More Than You Think!


Okay. What is the risk reward upside. Well Bitcoin probably. 50 x 100 x Hey you what’s up guys. Despite the fact that Bitcoin dropped 50 percent recently I still remain very bullish over a long period of time. In this video Ali explain what happened with this recent 50 percent drop and then I will poll the CEO and co-founder of real vision who will explain his 50 to 100 x Bitcoin price prediction. Let’s take a quick look. What is going on with bitcoin market. Currently Bitcoin is straining over six thousand one hundred dollars. When this outbreak reached the United States some serious silos began to happen in different financial sectors. The S&P 500 dropped by 35 percent from top to bottom. Crude oil suffered the biggest losses. It dropped from six dollars a barrel to twenty dollars a barrel. That’s a 66 percent drop. Last time we have seen those prices back in 2001 which is almost 20 years ago. By the way recently I got some exposure to crude oil volatility. I believe in a year or two so it can be three to four x return on your investment and there is a Bitcoin. Bitcoin dropped from 10000 dollars to slightly below 5000 dollars and then it bounced back to the current price of six thousand dollars. That’s a 40 percent lowest since the beginning of this selloff. But what is very interesting about Bitcoin that most of the sell off did not come from the long term bitcoin holders. But it came from the short term speculators and relatively new traders Quinn metrics reviewed supply tracker how many old coins came back into circulation have they been on site for a specific period of time. For example 30 day review supply tracker how much supply is moved on on chain after been untouched for at least 30 day. If they look at their analysis as of March 11 the reports revealed that two hundred eighty one thousand BTC that were left untouched for at least 30 days was brought back into circulation which means short term speculators were most likely selling their bitcoins into the market. However from the stack of the bitcoin that had been on site for at least one year only four thousand one hundred thirty one BTC were released into circulation which means investors were holding in bitcoin for at least one year and most likely sold or moved 400 1 3 1 BTC into the market in the recent downturn. Investors who held bitcoin for at least three four or five years did not even touch their positions. Well it’s good to be one of them. Here is a slightly different chart that shows that March 11th was the fourth largest spike in BTC 30 day review supply over the last eight years which means traders who held bitcoin for at least 30 days were moving closely into the market and also the ever moving Bitcoin on the dip in the middle summer of 2013 when Bitcoin was around eleven thousand dollars per BTC which of course was a better time to sell. And they also were dumping bitcoin at around six thousand dollars back in late 2018 when we witnessed the biggest bear market. This is when Bitcoin dropped from 6000 to below three thousand dollars let’s take a look. What long term holders did. Meaning investors who are holding bitcoin for at least one year. Long term holders appear to be unfazed. In spite of this severe market downturn there were not really moving BTC into circulation as we see on this chart that they actually did move about two hundred thousand BTC in July to one tonight seen with bitcoin was slightly about ten thousand dollars which of course it makes sense to sell some of your BTC at highs. Now let’s take a look. Why Bitcoin can make 50 to 100 x from the current price. 50 to 100 x it would put Bitcoin price between three hundred thousand and six hundred thousand dollars per BTC. It seems like quite a lot right. But let me give you my thoughts why this could be a reality in the next few years. Firstly plan B stock to flow model is still intact despite the fact that Bitcoin recently has dropped by 50 percent from top to bottom. For the past decade. This model had 95 percent accuracy. Hands are square which is a statistical measure of how close that data are fitted into regression model. And it’s pretty pretty close. Also r squared can be determined as a future price prediction model which means this model is 95 percent confident that these data points which is in our case time Syria or bitcoin price moment will follow stuck to floor model. Another cool chart that Plan B created recently is a risk adjusted returns model which basically means how much risk do you have to take to receive a desirable rate of returns. Let’s take a quick look at the bond for example. Risk adjusted return profile is pretty low. Average return is close to zero percent. As we know that interest rates currently are at 0 percent and our risk is pretty low as well. So this is not that attractive investment at least for me. Then we have thank stocks which have slightly higher risk adjusted return profile. Let’s take a look at Google stock for example the stock can drop by 60 percent down with its 12 percent annual rate of returns which is also not that attractive but of course it’s more attractive than bonds but now the SEC a look at Bitcoin. Bitcoin can drop by 75 percent from top to bottom but it can also explode by 140 percent easily. Therefore over a long period of time Bitcoin has the best risk adjusted return profile. That’s put all those charts aside and look at the potential catalyst that can take bitcoin 50 to 100 x. What is going on in the world right now is insane productivity of our economy is dropping in the faster and faster rate as of more than three point three million people claimed for unemployment just as of last week. Government bonds are expensive with no yield. Stock market is still expensive. Well not super expensive but it’s definitely not cheap inflation rate is about to skyrocket as Federal Reserve expand its balance sheet last week. Balance sheet that was above the 4 trillion dollars and now it’s over five point two trillion dollars. It just a matter of time where we will see asset in double digits on the Fed’s balance sheet. The only take is left is commodities such as crude oil precious metals and crypto currencies as a serial entrepreneur and crypto curious investor Christopher or rather recently stated bitcoin will be safe haven in a time of hyperinflation. And I do believe this is true. Q infinity is rating placed by further other reserve but because supply won’t be changed. In fact between Kevin Cash awards is just 45 days away which is another catalyst to be super bullish. Christopher has a lot of cool post about crypto currencies and whether an economy on his Instagram if you guys are interested I really will link to his A.G. in the description bugs below and finally I will pull the big believer that beacon can make 50 to 100 extra return on investment. Those of you who do not know what all you probably worth sleeping under the rock recently. All poll is a former hedge fund manager at Goldman Sachs and the CEO and co-founder of field vision. He said something very interesting. If he had to choose one asset for the next 10 years what would it be. And his answer was bitcoin. Let’s take a look. You said something to the effect that if you could own one asset for the next decade. It would be Bitcoin. Yeah. And I’d love to understand the rash. Now the reasoning behind that. Two things. So let’s say that same 30 year old and you’ve got 10 years you’re now in your. The stage where you start really trying to. Create wealth or save some money for future retirement whatever it may be getting married or lesser. So if an equity market is all time high valuations have a fixed income market. Yes you can make money if you know what you’re doing but yields are low so holding for extended period time is not an option. Property markets are too expensive for anybody to afford. So what are you left with. Well credit markets well you really get access to those anyway they’re more for professionals and guess what they’re all time record valuations as well. So you’re stuck with everything that is normal. At all time record valuations. So what are you left with. You’ve got commodities. Okay. So if you’re looking at industrial commodities Well the reason what you’re doing because these things are massively cyclical and you can get killed in them. So then you’re left with precious metals and bitcoin. That potentially have. An upside that’s different. Now why is it different. Why is it important because. And I’m sure we’ll talk a bit about this is. The environment that we’re potentially going into with. A massive wave of baby boomers retiring. With record debts. And governments are going to have to. And central banks have to figure out how to stimulate economies which are slow anyway. But we’ve got an aging population that spend money. If I look at my father’s spending patterns after he retired we fell 70 percent. Well that’s big for 76 million people in the US alone. So what happens is it slows down economies. There’s too much debt for slow economies. It can become a problem central banks need to print more money to try and keep this thing going. And essentially ends in complex outcomes. And we don’t really know what those outcomes are. But usually they end up in some sort of massive loss of capital for a lot of people. Or a transfer of capital and losses. So that kind of thing. Is interesting. We also know we got really screwed up financial system. It never really recovered in 2008. We’ve still got too much debt. We’ve still know the European banks are a problem. You know Canada’s going to have problems with its banking sector because it lent too much of the property market. We’ve got problems. But on top of problems we got leverage on top of leverage. Well there’s never been more leverage before. How do you step outside of that. Right. And again there’s bitcoin and gold that is too obvious answers. Are they the future of money. Well gold is a money and it’s been a money for a very long time. So that’s kind of obvious. And yes we’ll gold do well. Do I own gold. Yes. Do I think it’s going up. Yes. Bitcoin different. Bitcoin is an entire it is a basically think of it as. An option on a future financial system. And it’s not just a financial system. Everything is going digital. And Bitcoin and the block chain and digital currencies and all of this world. Is like a parallel system that’s sucking the smartest people I’ve ever met. And they’re all going to develop stuff here because what they’re saying is that system can be bettered. And what Bitcoin is all about in that whole movement and Bitcoin is just the flagship of it. Is a trusted ownership of anything. And as some as friend of mine called it the security truth machine because everything is recorded by numerous parties. Basically you get rid of all of the issues the financial system of who owns what. And. Can people take your assets away from you and all of that kind of stuff. It also opens up the new world. So gamers and people who are younger understand that digital assets have value. Well right now digital assets are hard to transfer around. But once you start going to tokenization and crypto and digitize it the whole world is different. And that’s why if I look. Skate to where the puck is going as a Canadian would say. The puck is going to something new. And we know digital is everything. As Mark and Jason said software is eating the world and it is and digitization is eating well too. So as we get to digitization in a digital money I often ask myself because we’re in the gold business. Is gold a product that can continue to be relevant for a younger generation. And of course we hope so and there are digital versions of gold and trading platforms and you can buy it on your mobile phone so there are tools allowing younger generations that are more comfortable with that type of technology. But. Perhaps Bitcoin and the watch chain embraces it and speaks them more directly. Everyone gets confused about the technology because it’s too complicated for anybody to understand and the possible futures what you can build with this stuff is impossible for you to understand. But does anybody know. The molecular structure of God. No. People don’t. It’s irrelevant. With gold. Yes I think. There will always be a place because there always has been a place you know there’s always been young generate whatever. There’s always been new technologies but. Gold largest future probably lies. With other countries. Just because. So many countries have it intrinsically as part of their culture. So that’s not going away. And yes Indians will use digital currencies there. They’ve really got this incredible digital payment system we can pay with a fingerprint for a pint of milk. That’s already happening India still hold gold. Right. So there is there is room for both in the future. Absolutely. And that’s what we try to tell people as well. But when you say OK what is the risk reward upside. Well Bitcoin probably. 50 x 100 x well gold maybe 5 x 10x. The downside for gold is less bitcoin. Well it’s not a hundred percent anymore even it’s 50 percent. And it goes up. You know 100 fold. Well the reward is so skewed in favor of cryptocurrency. Well you did say near to it you’re only picking one so we’re not. And that was the point. Yeah. And I said you know gold guys I don’t it’s not why I like let it end there at the end it’s really for us because it was going to but what about gold and like the question was What is the one asset that’s gonna give you that return. Fair enough. Now if you think of Bitcoin at its simplest terms as a share on the future of a financial system well you’re going to have these roller coaster ride bubbles until eventually you get mass adoption and the volatility slows down. So yes it was a bubble. I do expect it to go through the previous highs in the next 18 months to 12 months but with bitcoin you could do it in a week and you have no idea. Right. But I do I do expect that to happen. OK I totally agree with it all polled that Bitcoin is the call option on the future financial system. It is also the main asset of my choice. Bitcoin go to 50 to 100 x is definitely probable. Specifically if it really hit some sort of paradigm shift let me know what you guys think about bitcoin price prediction go into 50 to 100 x. Do you think it’s realistic. Leave your thoughts in the comments section below. He looks like button the subscribe.


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