Bitcoin Rallies Back To $6,800 | Why Crypto Is Still My Top Pick For 2020


What’s going on everyone. My name is Nicholas Merten here a data dash and today’s March 24th of 20 20. Well folks I hope you all are having a fantastic day wherever you are and in today’s video. We’re not only gonna be talking about the really strong sense of confidence we’re seeing in cryptocurrency markets as we basically met up for all the losses from the sharpest selloff in Bitcoin’s history for the last few years but along with that as well. I want to spend some time talking about the current developments with the cove and 19 ignoring a lot of the short term noise and really just talking about what we need to watch for in the long term and why I believe even though we may be able to start getting back to work in the next couple of months and maybe start going back to a sense of normality that this is going to certainly set us into a great depression of some sort much more larger and drawn out than a normal recession. All right. So a lot of things to talk about. Let’s go ahead and dive right into it. No it’s not a really positive topic case but again it’s something that I think we need to reflect on in this case and really just talk about what really matters at the end of the day. Right. Just trying to observe from what we can understand in the world now. Take a look here across the one of the market here very few plays here beating out Bitcoin here leading up the market of 9 percent. Now most crypto currencies are obviously following in that path to the upside. But we do have a few clear winners that are leading the market here engine as well. Wren we also two of our other top plays energy and chain link with other crypto currencies like nano as well really killing it right now doing well. Vast majority of the market right now up in the green with very few players down in the red. We could see here as well if we take a look here at the fear and greed index there’s something that’s very important to take in mind and that is that even though markets have resurged a lot of the losses here from the sell off we had at around 8000 going all the way down in about a 24 hour period plus pushing it 24 48 hours if you really wanna extend it that far. It really was it was pretty much an all day. We could see here that went all the way down to thirty six hundred. We have now recovered over three thousand dollars of value per bitcoin from the absolute low. And generally speaking from the kind of close range you’re on forty five hundred are good about a price or about two thousand one hundred dollars. So it’s good to see right. Bitcoin is definitely regained a lot of these losses and I think it proves to a few key things here with first off as always guys the thing I was enforces is during those peak times of fear when people are at the verge of believing Oh my God Bitcoin is over. That’s the same kind of kind of I guess not only ironically enough the same price action that we saw back during December of 2018 when we started depressed rates three K we were 80 percent down from the highs at 20 k people were just reaping over the idea like oh my god Bitcoin is done for right. When people start talking like that and there’s not much of a fundamental reason as to why prices down risk can be assured usually that this is a time of irrational fear and that markets will soon therefore correct themselves afterwards and buyers will come in for the discount opportunity at least the smart money well right. And you could be a part of that smart money if you want. Right. I’m not saying that every dip is going to be worth buying right. But when you have significant corrections when you have some those stark corrections you’ve ever seen. That’s usually the time to get a little bit more bullish than you might have been beforehand if you were willing to buy bitcoin at ten thousand boy are you going to love it when it’s down at thirty six or thirty eight hundred. Right. I mean your risk reward profile is so much more favorable if you still have that target range of. 50 to a hundred thousand as a possibility even if it’s just a fraction of a possibility right. So anyways that’s that’s just kind of logical investing and trading one to one. But another thing that’s important to notice while here when we take a look at this is I’m looking at the scalp X index which is a really cool Web site that aggregates a lot of indexes but one I want to look at is the fear and greed index. And interestingly enough the fear and greed index which is probably one of the more interesting kind of aggregate indicators here. Similar in some ways to the fear and greed index that I think CNN Money had put together back a while ago for traditional equities. Interestingly enough is showcasing this here that the market isn’t showing any signs of greed or being overbought. In fact right now we’re at some of our lowest levels we’ve seen on record. We haven’t been back here. I mean for example just to give you some perspective. Both of the last few Decembers were always good buy points right. December of 2019 Fiorina index was only down here to about 21. And a lot of that as well back here when we were in peak fear after the sell off in November to December. Right. You’re telling around here at a point and range that’s even higher than where we are right now. All right. So again you’ve got absolute fear throughout the market right now for the most part may people aren’t bullish on crypto currencies and it tends to be that usually the contrarians went out in this case the smart money tends to win out. Who knows if that’s really where we are right now. Who knows maybe we might have another pullback but I got to tell you all. For most kind of large scale buyers. You’re right you’re at sixty six hundred right you know over the last few days. If you had the opportunity to buy bitcoin anywhere from four to five thousand you are buying it more than a 50 percent discount from those relative highs just back here in February. Right. You see Bitcoin performing this well afterwards showcases me that people are looking for a non correlated asset to hedge against inflation and quite frankly maybe Bitcoin isn’t the store of value asset that many people want or doesn’t have. They have a lack of volatility that people would want. But you’re going to see in a store of value or in a hedging asset that there’s going to be a lot of volatility during this time period because there’s probably gonna be a lot of people wanting to buy it and in some cases after very strong rallies you’re going to have people who are cashing out and going on to cash and all kinds of different things going on. Guys these are volatile times. Take a look at. You don’t believe me right. You think volatility is lacking. Yes guess I would say it for a store value believe there cannot be volatility. Take a look at one of those time tested. You know store value assets here. Gold going all the way from 17 under an ounce down to fourteen fifty nine and then going right back up to 16 under. Does that remove the value of gold as a store value. No because in the daily timeframe as much as this is volatile and you know get as is just about as significant as Bitcoin’s move we’re just focused on a very small market on the monthly chart. Gold’s still way up. Gold just like bitcoin has generally set higher lows and higher highs on a longer term timeframe. And that’s what we care about that is what defines a store value a store value is an asset that I know I can purchase and two and I can know at some kind of later date that it is most likely that I’m either going to be able to get my money back or make a profit. Those are the only two things that a store value needs generally higher lows and higher highs. And a hedge generally against things like inflation or other real world types of assets that are correlated to world economies. Things of that sort. Some suddenly some way where you can preserve your purchasing power. Go to bitcoin. Do that. And again I know we got a lot of silver bugs as well. I’m not trying to rob the city guys it sucks. I own a little bit of physical silver and gold. All right. This has been a bad week for assets across the board. All right if you want to take a look again we can always hop over here. Take a look at equities and how you pull that up or just go ahead and pull up as P 500. Right. This is my general target range here 50 percent but even just dragging it out to here in two months the entire U.S. equity market down about 35 percent. You think that’s normal. It’s not. This has been one of the most dramatic sell offs we’ve ever seen as the biggest rushes for cash that we’ve seen in history and no one is safe in this environment when it comes to financial assets. But now it seems like the worst of that kind of cash run has come out in this case. Not saying that we can’t see equities sell off worse as we’ve been looking for about a 50 percent decline in total. But along with that as well. Gold silver might still get a bit a hindrance here same with Bitcoin. But I think generally speaking now we can see people rebuilding their positions. Gold and Silver building up Bitcoin building up. These are the assets that should be performing well in a market where people are rushing in this case they’ve gotten to their cash positions right. They’re looking for something that’s going to hedge against what’s to come. And the thing that’s on a lot of people’s minds is inflation inflation. I mean we have been hearing about central bank monetary policy that’s going to be injecting massive amounts of cash in the economy. We’re hearing about mass bailouts. The government is going to be using taxpayer money or money that’s coming. From the Treasury insurance and Treasuries in this case in order to finance new debt and credit the system. And it is going to increase the monetary supply by a very very large margin. This case is going to be huge. Right. We don’t know exactly that headline figure is it. Be silly for us to say we knew what it was because quite frankly in the last week alone those numbers have been increasing quite steadily. You know people like Anthony popular auto for example who believe it’s going to be up to five trillion. You have some people who are naming anywhere from seven to 10 trillion. It’s crazy. And the biggest factor that’s going to determine all this is what’s going to happen in the sense of our response to cope at 19. This is going to become just to some simple few months that we have to deal with this or is this going to be a year year and a half issue and that’s we start to get this big spreads and the figures of what we’re going to have to supplement to the economy. All in all though. All right those questions really can’t be answered too much. And we will talk about it in just a moment from what we do know. Long story short though we’re hanging around the stock flow model guys. We’ve made a good recovery here over the last few days from the gap that have been spot after the gap not really so much a gap down but after a large sell off that we had in bitcoin one of the biggest selloffs we’ve had in past seven years of price action. We’ve finally gotten closer back to the main line here on the stock flow. So this is what we want to look for you guys. Want to get back up here at eight thousand right then after that provide Bitcoin some time to reflect through its market price the shock to the supply within the supply and demand ratio in this case. Right. And that comes with the having of it in May which the stock flows accounting for here. So we’re still on pace. Guys don’t lose sight. There’s so much noise in the world but I can tell you this just to provide some perspective I always bring up that point about how having really can’t be priced in until it happens because most people don’t understand having of it. Just think right now. Guys. Like the sheer amount of discussion around something like Kovac 19 versus the having of it if you know about having a very if you know about the bitcoin having you know the having event at any regard or even just bitcoin you are in a small minority of investors. Just imagine when people hear that bitcoin this new asset is starting to rally yet again and eventually at one point. I don’t know when this is going to be probably sometime in late 2020 we’ll be getting above its all time highs. Right. Like 20 20 early 20 21 or back above 20 k. It’s the only asset that’s up net for 2020. If Bitcoin sticks to the stock flow model that’s what it’s telling us it’s going to do. Right. So if it does get to there what do you think it’s going to go through the minds of investors. It’s the same thing that went through a lot of investors minds like myself. When I was starting to look at buying my first position in Bitcoin or I’d known about bitcoin for years. I got interested when it broke its all time highs again. Right. When we got back up here in January I was very very excited here in this case. That’s when I really started reading up building my positions in this case. I had been keeping up with the market in 2016 as it was getting closer and closer. But this is where I got really excited. And that’s what finally made me pull the trigger and actually get involved in crypto currencies more actively. The same thing will happen here for institutions. That sparked the retail wave. Now it’s time for the institutional wave and there’ll be a lot of retail investors as well. But it’s going to be the institutional capital that brings us up to a trillion dollar market cap. Multitrillion dollar market cap. So very very excited about that guys coming out here though. Wanted to talk a little bit so actually I want to go to this today I was just reading that personally what they wanted to talk about though. Is taking a look here at futures right now. Verizon take a look at CNN businesses investing some reason wasn’t pulling up the data but for right now it’s looking like futures markets are up about 4 percent and this is supposedly coming from confidence of Congress and the Senate and eventually the president passing a bill to provide relief. This is not only going to be the system that deploys paychecks for a lot of average Americans but along with that a lot of bailouts for companies a lot of short term credit lines for a lot of companies. It’s a lot of different things. And the issue right now as much as the futures are reflecting this up 4 percent which makes me curious makes me curious if someone knows something I don’t. At the end of the day nothing’s gotten past so far and we’re having the same kind of latency that we had back in 2008. Because you’ve got a few key issues here right guys. First off. What’s optimal to put in a bailout right now you put for example you and I in a room right you you the viewer myself. Well we can probably agree on a lot of things. We can also probably disagree on a few things or maybe want to prioritize certain things over one another. Right. And the good news is with a bailout. Right. You know a government can run up US and rack up as much debt as it wants right. It eventually becomes an issue. But really there’s no limit on this bailout. The issue is is that people probably don’t want a lot of funny money going out to things like it did in the last bailout. And the big issue here is that we don’t have single issue bills. Right. So we don’t have a bill that focuses on one specific thing like put giving a bailout to a specific company. Right. So you could vote for example I want to support maybe the general things you and I would support like maybe subsidizing some health care costs or for example providing relief to the CDC or maybe providing for example lines of credit to certain companies I’d be in favor a lot of those things. But you know then there’s certain starts to be things where you start giving favorable money to certain companies that don’t really need it. Corporate welfare in some shape or form and also as while there’s a lot of policies that are getting shoved in now that just seem very partisan in this case and it’s basically leading to this almost near endless negotiation during a time where a weak can mean everything for people’s pockets the global economy you know what we’re really seeing Congress and the Senate goof around here and not be able to come to a conclusion on just simply passing a bill that makes sense. But then again that’s how Congress and the Senate and the general federal body for the United States has been working for the last four years. So it comes at no surprise but long story short. Right. We have nothing past year. And at first you know again unless there’s something I don’t know. This seems like a very hopeful response here in this case of hoping to basically receive some kind of funding and the next next couple of days. But I want to go ahead here and talk a little bit about the case data here for Cove 19 and I think one of the best places we can look at right now is really ground zero in this case for Kobe 19 and that’s Italy right. Going ahead here take a look at it only on the map here. All the deaths penalty here to this dot here. Sorry not just deaths these are active cases. My apologies. So total confirmed cases. Sixty three and was pushing to sixty four thousand total of six thousand deaths which is really tragic. Luckily good news. Majority are recovering now and existing right now we have over fifty thousand four hundred eighteen cases. Now if we for example just focus simply on the confirmed cases here against the deaths here the scary thing is we’re pushing you know near 9 to 10 percent death rate here right now. Again this number will dwindle as time progresses as you have a large or dramatic case is confirmed that probably tested right in this case again we’re triple still trying to ramp up testing across the world and then I’ll give us more testing cases for people who might have it right now who may not know may not need to be hospitalized. So that’s the good news right. It means that on average not up to nine or 10 percent of people are dying. All right. Sad news here is that this is still a lot of people. And right now you know there’s some good news here in the sense that Italy over the last five days has set another consecutive low here in the sense of new cases which is really really exciting stuff. But there’s something important to take into mind here is that Italy in many countries right now already pushed to the brink. They’re not ready for the next kind of exponential jump here and the sense of cases they have that they have to hospitals it’s a little as twenty five percent that have to be hospitalized. And the thing that I want to emphasize here is that even though on the chart we’ve actually seen a little bit of a downturn now thanks to Italy taking Stark measures to quarantine individuals or just basically keep people indoors. Right. They’re basically self lockdown in this case across the entire country. They’ve been funny enough they had mayors going around just like literally shouting at people and saying like stay inside like you know. But the major thing I want to emphasize here is this chart right. We can see here that right now over the last few days I apologize to my mike a little bit. We can see the cases are declining right now which is really positive news. But this isn’t again a signal of absolute confidence here because we’ve had drops before and it became it can because of a few different things. One lack of lack of testing equipment be it could simply be in this case that we aren’t conducting as much tests as people are now quarantining for the most part or self isolating throughout their homes. And a lot of that as well it’s just simply a flaw within the chart game this case we need to see that there is a systematic sense of control across the board before we really get too eager or too confident and the major thing that I want to emphasize again is that point that Italy right now right. Is already being pushed to the brink. Other countries are going to be where Italy is in just a couple of weeks it’s going to be about a week week and a half when we really start to see I mean we’re already seeing right now in the United States for example I know this nurses are working 24 hour shifts. I know people my area close friends and family and stuff who either themselves or through their friends work as doctors and nurses and they’re working around the clock right now 24 hour shifts. This is not a laughing matter guys this is serious. And the really sad thing and the scary element of this is that if those nurses and those doctors and medical professionals. Catch Cove and 19 were working in the environment it is only going to further apply pressure on our medical systems in the United States. Bear in mind Cove at 19 is not the only thing that is hospitalized. If someone’s a cancer patient if someone. Is in a severe positions whether they have some other form of disease or disability there’s already enough demand in the system that’s been difficult for people to keep up with. You can talk to anyone in those industries and now they’ve got this. On top of it. And many of them are lacking the necessary respirators in this case the necessary gloves masks medical equipment that they need to do or basically need in order to do the proper job. So at the end of the day what really matters. It’s the logarithmic chart. The logarithmic chart for cases is picking up exponentially like it was in China. And the scary thing is is if we get anywhere near the growth factor we had back here. This is going to be extremely deadly. It’s not going to be deadly but it’s going to set us up in a position where we better start praying for some form of vaccine. We better start praying that there’s going to be some kind of solution that’s going to actually be able to save us from this because it doesn’t seem people right now are taking the proper precautions. Just to give you a little bit a sense here of how fast this is growing guys. We’re not even in April. This is back here in late January. What does the rest of 2020 unfold here. Is they’re going to be any other issues outside of Kogan at. We have to deal with. I think markets are still too confident about this. I still think people generally you know you see kind of just in the sense of the arrogance that some of us have that I don’t care about I’m going to go out and go do the same things I did in my day to day basis and no one thinks about you know who is really at stake here. It’s not just elderly people folks. People my age are at risk. Anyone in their in their 40s 30s 20s. You guys are at risk too. That’s a that’s a new revelation. I wouldn’t make that very very clear over the last couple of weeks it’s become very clear especially at Italy. There is a good number of cases that are young everyday people. Even if you make it right you don’t die from it. The pneumonia that people are getting. The struggle to breathe as you’re gasping for air. Without proper respiration technology it’s just. It’s it terrifies me personally guys. I’ve really over the last few years guys worked at being much better at just being able to spot when there’s just kind of noise and also and people are underestimating things. This is still being underestimated. By world governments by. Organizations and companies and everyday people. And anyone who’s thinking in the short term I hope feels the ramifications of not taking action earlier. By playing Eragon by kicking the can down the road. I know many of you out there who are watching this are doing your part. I’m not I’m not trying to ramble on about you guys and stuff I know you guys are definitely in tune with this. You watch these videos. There’s a lot of people who aren’t. A lot of people just don’t get it because it hasn’t hit someone they know. And until it does. They’re not going to probably care about it. But by that time when it’s hit someone we all personally know. It’s likely that not only many others have gotten it it’s a good chance you could get it. And that’s the thing it has to get to that point for people really realize it. This needs to be something that’s taught in school. We need to learn about how to deal with pandemics. I’m highly impressed by what’s happened in Japan and South Korea and Singapore. That is what it is like to flatten the curve. We’ve got to respond to these things quicker guys. Anyways I rambled on enough. I know that this has been a pretty dark theme here guys but one thing that I do want to emphasize here going back to crypto markets is really just focusing in here. On trying to again plant ourselves here to position ourselves right. The next thing not going to be really focusing on the sense of my positions is I will be building some precious metal positions. I will be looking to possibly possibly buy some equity positions as equities continue to go lower. But right now my and my number one priority still is crypto currencies and one of the things that I wanted to talk about today is our sponsor Cleo building a strategy that emulates to some degree our squeeze momentum indicator. Now Cleo in this case again is a relatively new platform the grand scheme of the overall space they’ve been around for a good I think is about a year now. I think that a year year and a half they talked with Kevin that they’ve been working on this it could be off on those dates but I wanted to spend some time to talk about a little bit of a strategy that I built. It’s actually quite successful in fact it beat out just normally hotly Bitcoin. And it’s one that emulates two different indicators here that are close to the basically the estimates indicate we’ve built it just takes into factor two indicators the momentum indicator which is a little bit different than the Lazy Bear squeezed momentum indicated that we use on Trading View and allowed as well the stochastic RSI use of the stochastic fast here in this case. Now basically what we built here for the rule is when momentum is up by 20 percent the last day and the stochastic fast is below 20 in this case so we’re coming from the lower band here the stochastic outside meeting we probably went through a sell off or pullback recently in this case we’re gonna buy Bitcoin with our full position and we’re now going to take full profit into order because that’s our long term target or Hoddle target. And then along with that as well to close the position if the RSI is down by five points in the last day and momentum is down by five and in the past. And again bear in mind this is not 100 percent aligned with this group’s measured indicator but the philosophy is still the same. We’re going off of a daily time frame versus a weekly which is what we tend to use for that as well. We’ve cut out in this case using the active. We’re just using the momentum in this to cast it fast in this case. Now I want to go ahead here and take a look real quick if we go ahead and actually take a look at the performance here back testing results you can see that this is actually performed quite nicely up two hundred seventy six percent over the back testing period. If you go back to the same time period stuff we’ve actually beaten now just hotline Bitcoin in this case. So really interesting indicator here good about trades here as well it’s not just you know again Holling it good about a trades going on here on the actual trading strategy but again I went through a few iterations in this case but coming out with a sixty three point three percent return it’s pretty cool. I think this was a pretty well performing strategy. And again. You see a chart with trade history here how the profits are looking here most of them are profitable trades right. It’s a very interesting strategy. And one thing as well again you could go here and you can type out the same exact thing guys and modify to your liking you might want to set a stop of some sort. I’ll sort of just a closed condition might even want to do different variations. One thing I was thinking about doing is where we used to have. We generally still kind of have the state of where the majority of indicators in this case we have three to five points. Basically a majority in this case a two to three majority originally from the base original indicator that I made we could have different combinations where maybe you do one where when momentum is up by 20 percent and the Mac deal is a curling curving up above maybe like the bottom baseline of the Mac D or like sorry but maybe it’s curving up against the other line things of that sort. Maybe it’s up by certain amount of points you could do that as well. So we could really fledge this out and again make it as complex as we want that looks for all the different kind of edge scenarios that can happen between the different indicator combinations. So you can really let your mind run wild with this guys. But again I recommend again test out clear if you guys want if you’re interested in doing things like algorithmic trading this is how you do it without having to learn R or Python or these different you know data science based languages it streamlines the whole process. Right. And they give you a lot of data and flexibility to work with you. You can pull from so many different data sources some that you don’t normally have access to on Trading View. Right. So again really recommend you guys check it out. It’s free to test it out. And if you guys want to try one of the pay plans you can look at what it entails and stuff during through other pricing plans. But anyways that’s it for the video guys. Thank you all so much for watching. Hope you enjoy this one if you did drop a like and I hope you all are staying safe wherever you are. Above all guys I really am thinking about you at this time. I hope you and your loved ones are doing OK. I know these are definitely dark times. Generally speaking I think we have to be frank about it. The best thing we could do is come prepared to stick through this together and make the best of what we have right now. If you’re again. Staying with family in this case. Make the best of it. Enjoy your time with them and joyous time to reflect and get away from working 24/7. Just stay safe above all guys. All right. So have a great day wherever you are and I’ll see you all in the next one. Stay tuned.


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